A woman displays maize ears from her drought stricken garden in Mauritania. Across Africa, more and more people are at risk of food insecurity, exacerbated by climate change.
The 9th Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change shows that deaths from extreme heat, hunger, and disease, all are rising because of climate change. Authors call out governments and companies that continue “fuelling the fire” with continued investment in fossil fuels and subsidies, leading to all-time high energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, which are reducing the prospects for the survival of billions.
People worldwide are facing a series of unprecedented threats to their wellbeing, health, and survival from the rapidly changing climate. Of the 15 indicators of climate change-related health hazards, exposures, and impacts monitored by the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, ten reached new records of risk, in this year’s report, released on Wednesday.
The 50-page report is the product of contributions of 172 researchers from 57 leading research organizations and UN agencies worldwide, working in close collaboration with the World Health Organization.
Years of delayed climate action are “reducing the chances of mankind’s long-term survival,” declared Green Climate Fund Director Dr Oyun Sanjaasuren, at an expert panel launching the report. Financial resources to support the transition to cleaner, green energy but these are “unfortunately being allocated to activities that perpetuate the fossil fuel-based economy.”
Green Climate Fund Director Dr Oyun Sanjaasuren.
More deaths
Globally heat-related deaths among those over age 65 increased last year by a record-breaking 167% above deaths in the 1990s, substantially above the 65% increase that would have been expected had temperatures not changed (i.e., accounting only for changing demographics).
Heat stress even from light exercise
2023 also saw an all-time high exposure of over 1,500 hours of high temperatures. This means that even light outdoor exercise such as walking or cycling posed a moderate risk of heat stress to billions worldwide, for almost 28% more hours than in the 1990s.
Because of climate change, people faced a record-high average of 50 more days of temperatures that could threaten human health.
More disease
Lead author, Marina Romanello, describes trends in extreme precipitation and drought at the launch of the Lancet Countdown report.
Another all-time high was recorded with over 5 million dengue cases in over 80 countries, thanks to more extreme rain as well as heatwaves, enhancing the climatic suitability for the spread of deadly mosquito-borne infectious diseases.
$Billions in economic losses
Global potential income losses are equivalent to $835 billion because of increasing temperatures leading to over 500 billion potential hours of labour lost in 2023.
More drought
There was extreme drought on almost half the landmass. Forty-eight per cent of the global land area was affected by at least one month of extreme drought, the second-highest level since at least 1951
Heat-triggered food insecurity affected the highest number of people ever. The increase in drought and heatwave events since 1981–2010 was associated with 151 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity across 124 countries.
“It’s the most concerning report that we found in our eight years of monitoring,” lead author Marina Romanello said at the report’s launch on Wednesday.
“Out of 15 indicators, 10 have reached record highs, new levels of threats. This means that our health is increasingly at risk, and in the heat maps where we’ve represented their values, from blue being safer conditions for health, to red, the worst conditions, you can see that very clear trend towards redder, worsening conditions across every indicator.”
Rising heat a driving factor of disease, disasters and deaths
Days ot health threatening temperature in 2019-23
Last year, 2023, was the hottest on record.
And crosscutting to many of the health effects being tracked is the rising levels of extreme heat – and with that heat related illness in multiple dimensions – from more cardiovascular disease, to more work-related heat stress, and even more sleepless nights – not to mention the knock-on effects of heat-related drought on food production and hunger.
“One of the key impacts of climate change obviously comes from extreme heat and from heat exposure,” said Romanello.
“As the temperatures rise, we see that the threats to our health associated with high temperatures is also growing, and this is particularly so for vulnerable groups like very young children, people with underlying health conditions like heart disease, lung disease, and other elderly people over 65 years of age.
“And what we’re monitoring here is heat-related deaths of people over 65 years of age, and we see that it is more than twice the level of expected mortality if temperatures hadn’t changed.
So we know that it’s climate change that is driving this rapid growth in heat related mortality to record high levels this year. But obviously mortality is just the tip of what we know is a very big iceberg of health impacts of climate change that is associated with disease associated with heat stress and health conditions that are worsened by rising temperatures.”
Fossil fuels’ share in global energy mix increased for first time in a decade
Despite all of the warning signs, levels of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions also reached an all-time high in 2022 of 37.2 gigatons. In 2021, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy system also increased for the first time in a decade, reaching 80.3%.
“Extraordinary rainfall hit South Asia after a summer with temperatures regularly above 40° C through the night. Look at the devastating flooding now in the Valencia area of Spain. Think of the wildfires that have torn through southern Europe, the long list of tragedies around the world goes on,” declared Helen Clark, former New Zealand Prime Minister at the report’s launch event.
“We are in a very grave situation. Climate change threats are rising as emissions continue to grow, and it often seems that the many alarms which are being raised by scientists around the world are just being ignored. Yet we cannot afford to continue down this ridiculous path, this irresponsible path where every moment of delay is being paid for in people’s lives.”
Former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark.
Oil and gas production would exceed 1.5° target by 60% in 2030 – and 149% by 2040
Despite all of the talk and promises of a “green energy” transition, governments allocated a record-breaking $1.4 trillion to net fossil fuel subsidies, dwarfing any financial commitments in support of climate action made at COP28, the report also notes.
The world’s 114 largest oil and gas companies, covering 80% of all exploitation, have also increased their projections for levels of fossil fuel production by 2040.
This would lead to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions exceeding levels compatible with 1.5°C of warming by as much as 59% in 2030, and a staggering 189% in 2040. Worse still, 33 of these companies are expected to continue exceeding their 1.5°C-compatible GHG emissions by over 300% in 2040.
Oil and gas companies higher production targets would put the planet well beyond 1.5C
Beyond 1.5° global warming above pre-industrial times, scientists have warned of increasing intensity of heatwaves, extreme rainfall, stronger storms, water scarcity, diminishing agriculture, and extinction of many species among some of the more dangerous fallouts.
“Cure the sickness of climate inaction”
The Lancet Countdown, established the same year that the Paris Climate Agreement came into force, aims to monitor the health impacts and opportunities of the world’s response to this landmark commitment to keep global warming below 1.5°C.
Responding to the report, António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, said “Record-high emissions are posing record-breaking threats to our health. We must cure the sickness of climate inaction – by slashing emissions, protecting people from climate extremes, and ending our fossil fuel addiction – to create a fairer, safer, and healthier future for all.”
Some silver linings
There is some reason for “cautious optimism” the report points out, despite the record-breaking health harms it flags.
The share of renewable energy reached 10.5% in 2021, almost double that of 2016. Global investment in clean energy grew 10% in 2023 to US$1.9 trillion, exceeding fossil fuel investment by 73%. Jobs in renewables also reached a record-high with almost 14 million employees in 2022, up by over a third since 2016.
Deaths from fossil fuel-associated air pollution fell from 2.25 million in 2016 to 2.09 million in 2021, mostly due to reduced pollution from coal burning, demonstrating the life-saving potential of coal phase-out.
However, household use of biomass as a primary cooking fuel, caused 1.24 million deaths in 2021, an increase of 135,000 from 2016.
Contrasting conclusions about fossil fuels’ contribution to air pollution
Mortality attributable to PM2·5, produced by fossil fuels and other sources, in relation to human development index (HDI) country level.
Notably, however, the Countdown’s assessment of premature deaths attributable to fossil-fuel related air pollution overall is less than half the 5.13 million estimate published by The BMJ, in late 2023.
The assumptions and models underlying the contrasting conclusions are still being debated amongst the scientists. But according to both Lancet lead author Romanello and The BMJ lead author Jos Lelieveld, the key differences revolve around the fact that The BMJ article estimated lives that could be saved if fossil fuel emissions were eliminated, whereas the Lancet Countdown estimated deaths attributable to fossil fuels in today’s current mix of pollution sources.
As compared to the BMJ, The Lancet Countdown also uses a different model to estimate the relative proportion of fossil fuel emissions in the total air pollution mix – leading to a different estimate of health effects.
And finally, in the BMJ “fossil fuels elimination” scenario, there would be knock-on benefits in other sectors, particularly agriculture – which produces significant ammonia that interacts with fossil fuel-produced sulphur oxides (SOx) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) to form significant amounts of secondary PM2.5.
Either way, Romanello, who along with being lead author is the Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown project at University College London, explained why public investment is vital to tackle the twin dangers of energy poverty and toxic air.
“Globally, 4 million people and 30% of vulnerable households around the world are still using biomass, a very unreliable, very dirty source (of fuel.)
“These are the poorest and most vulnerable in countries in the world. So this is a system of energy poverty. The direct health impact of that, beyond the health harms of energy poverty, is that people are also being exposed to toxic air inside their homes because of the persistent use of solid fuel.”
Taking it down to the country level
In countries of South East Asia the toll of air pollution is particularly high – even while fossil fuel subsidies are at record levels as well.
India saw 1.6 million deaths in 2021 due to PM 2.5, the report says, estimated to be equivalent to a loss of $320 billion. Over a third of these deaths were due to fossil fuels, even according to the Countdown’s more ‘conservative’ estimate of fossil fuel’s role.
In 2022, India also allocated a record net total of nearly $58 billion in subsidies to the fossil fuel sector. Heat exposure has increased over the past few decades and this the report estimates cost the economy $141 billion in potential income loss from labour capacity reduction due to heat in 2023. The agricultural sector was the most affected, with more than $71.9 billion in potential losses.
In the United States, historically the largest greenhouse gas emitter, there were approximately 125,800 deaths attributable to human sources of air pollution (PM 2.5) in 2021. Fossil fuels contributed to 39% of the mortality. The monetised value of premature mortality due to anthropogenic air pollution was $669 billion, whereas the fossil fuel sector received $9 bn in subsidies in 2022. Heat cost the economy a potential income loss of $103 billion last year.
The Lancet Countdown has been published days ahead of the start of COP29, the UN’s annual, mega climate conference of all governments and several institutions, agencies and civil society.
For decades UN Climate Change has pushed for climate action. The hottest year on record and increasing GHG emissions is a reality check on exactly what three decades of climate talks have achieved. Now, COP29 is being held in Baku, the capital of a fossil fuel-rich nation Azerbaijan and one which is expanding its gas industry.
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