As Donald Trump is ahead in presidential forecasts and Republican Party is leading in Congressional forecasts, the United States may see a ’trifecta’ in 2024, which refers to the situation when the presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives are all controlled by one partyread more
In the 2024 election cycle, the United States may be headed to an extraordinary concentration of power.
As Republican candidate Donald Trump is ahead in the presidential forecasts and the Republican party is leading in both the chambers of the Congress, the Senate and the House of Representatives, the United States may be headed to a phenomena called ’trifecta’.
The trifecta refers to a situation where three centres of power across executive and legislative branches of government, which are the presidency, Senate, and House, are controlled by a single party.
US elections projected to spring Republican ’trifecta’
The 2024 US elections are projected to spring a Republican trifecta.
Along with the president, voters will also elect members to the House and Senate.
As per two major pollsters, the Republicans are projected to win the presidency as well as the House and Senate.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast says that Trump has 54 per cent chances of winning the presidency and the Republican Party has 88 per cent chances of winning the Senate and 52 per cent chances of winning the House.
The Decision Desk HQ-The Hill forecast says that Trump has 54 per cent chances of winning the presidency and the Republican Party has 74 per cent chances of winning the Senate and 53 per cent chances of winning the House.
The US elections will be held on November 5 and the results would be expected within 24 hours.
Why does trifecta matter?
In the US polity, the Congress is extremely powerful. While the president has extensive executive powers, budgetary powers lie with the Congress alone and all laws have to be cleared by the Congress.
This means that when the president’s party has a stronger hold on either of the house or both the chambers, the president’s position is much stronger. On the contrary, when the control of either of the chambers is slim, the president’s agenda may be compromised over partisan bickering.
In case Trump wins the presidency wins and his loyalist Republicans flood the Congress, then Trump would have an unrestrained term pain the United States in his far-right Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda.
Most recently, the Democrats had a trifecta from 2021 to 2023 when Republicans took control of the House.
In recent decades, the Democrats had a trifecta during 1993-95 and 2009-11 and Republicans had it during 2017-19.
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