The United Kingdom’s decision to assign a dedicated brigade for Estonia’s defense ensures that NATO allies are ready to respond quickly in support of Estonia. However, assigning the brigade took two years and will require the British to make significant efforts. The U.K. faces pressure to improve its military readiness.
At the recent NATO defense ministers’ meeting, Estonia and the United Kingdom signed a cooperation agreement to assign a dedicated British brigade to Estonia’s defense.
“The Fourth Brigade is one that the U.K. maintains at a high readiness level, and we will begin training for rapid deployment to Estonia. They will be present at next year’s large-scale exercise Siil (Hedgehog),” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform).
Brigades can vary between countries, but they typically consist of 2,000 to 3,000 soldiers. In the event of a conflict, Estonia’s primary defensive force would be formed by a division comprising two Estonian brigades and one British brigade.
“The Fourth Brigade is a light infantry brigade, meaning it can be moved quickly, particularly given where it currently stands in its training cycle. One unit – 1st Battalion Duke of Lancaster’s Regiment – is already heading to Estonia for the Kevadtorn (Spring Storm) or Siil training exercises, aiming to gain experience in training and operating in Estonia. The idea is to create a highly specialized brigade,” said Ed Arnold, a researcher at the British think tank RUSI.
The decision to deploy allied brigades to the Baltic states was made during NATO’s Madrid Summit in 2022. However, discussions over more than two years have led to slight adjustments in these plans. At the start of this year, the U.K.’s 12th Armored Brigade was initially expected to support Estonia’s defense.
The U.K. military is currently undergoing modernization, replacing Challenger 2 tanks with newer models and upgrading infantry fighting vehicles, armored carriers and self-propelled artillery. Although NATO allies have not publicly discussed the exact reasons for adjusting their defense plans, this modernization likely contributed to the shift.
“Establishing the readiness of the 12th Brigade, given that it is part of the Third Division, which represents the U.K.’s main contribution to NATO – they can’t maintain it at high readiness while also ensuring it’s available for deployment. This likely explains the change,” said Arnold.
“We’ve been discussing this intensively over the past three months. The conversations and negotiations have been rigorous, with clear demands on both sides. One important point is that when the British deploy their Archer self-propelled artillery units to us in the spring, they will bring the new capabilities they are developing to Estonia first,” stated Pevkur.
Although the U.K.’s Fourth Brigade has been designated for Estonia’s defense since summer, the deployment of new military equipment will take longer.
“The Boxer armored personnel carriers are scheduled for initial deployment only in 2026. The Ajax infantry fighting vehicles are likely to follow later. The Challenger 3 tanks won’t be fully operational until 2030. There are some timeline concerns. While Archer self-propelled artillery units are available, there aren’t enough to make a significant difference,” Arnold said.
The more NATO allies work to increase defense spending and strengthen the alliance’s eastern flank, the greater the pressure on the U.K. to deploy additional troops to Estonia.
“Deploying more troops to Estonia is beneficial both for training and alliance collaboration. The U.K. seems somewhat hesitant to commit to a full brigade-level presence. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, two battle groups were temporarily sent to Estonia, but one had to be withdrawn by Christmas. I believe this is a credibility concern for the U.K. When it comes to deterrence, particularly deterring Russia, this sends a weak message about the British Army if it struggles to maintain a brigade presence over the long term,” Arnold noted.
However, for the U.K., this issue is primarily political. Militarily, NATO is capable of providing robust support for Estonia’s defense.
“For example, if the Russian military appeared to be preparing something against Estonia, French troops stationed in Romania would likely not remain idle. It would be militarily impossible for Russia to pass through Ukraine and over the Carpathian Mountains. Thus, NATO forces from other parts of the eastern flank would also mobilize. In such a case, NATO would be in a very strong military position. Right now, this is more a political issue of unity and cooperation, to prove the viability of NATO’s forward-deployed forces,” Arnold stated.
Pevkur also emphasized that the U.K.’s contribution to Estonia’s defense extends beyond a single brigade.
“The key point is that if further reinforcement is needed, it will always be possible. What matters is that those who must respond quickly are maintained at high readiness within the U.K.,” Pevkur said.
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