Israel’s attack on Iran was successful, that’s why Tehran will attack again

Iran’s rhetoric has taken a sharp turn recently – from outright denial during the strike’s initial hours of any attack or damage in Iran, to the latest two-day chatter about a sure-fire response against Israel at the right moment, a threat echoing the era before Iran’s previous assaults on Israel last April and on October 1.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Bakaei declared on Monday morning: “Our response will be decisive. The nature of our response is tied to the type of attack Iran was exposed to. Iran will not forfeit its right to retaliate against the Zionist attack.”

Similarly, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Sunday: “We are not interested in war, but we are ready for it and will respond to any attack. We will respond to Israeli aggression at the appropriate time.”

During the strike, reports from Iran claimed that “Tehran witnessed no security or military incident and the sounds of explosions heard in the city were due to activated air defense.” Even outlets acknowledging an attack, like the Iranian Fars agency, stated that “several military bases in the west and southwest of Tehran were subject to an Israeli strike and air defense systems were activated.”

Media aligned with the Iranian regime and the Shiite axis echoed that the limited Israeli strike flopped, attempting to downplay Israel’s capabilities, mainly to descend from their high horse. If the Israeli strike was indeed limited and unsuccessful, Iran isn’t obliged to respond. That night, videos of calm and routine in Tehran’s streets circulated on Iranian networks. Even claims of panic and queues at gas stations were countered with footage showing empty stations.

Iran doesn’t need reminding that its domestic situation is dire, both economically and socially, and further rounds with Israel won’t help it out of this bind. It was the Iranian opposition and foreign networks that published the alternative reports that night, which began hinting at Israel’s success.

As days pass since the strike and Israel’s success becomes clearer, Iran is cornered. Even if it didn’t want to retaliate, it won’t let Israel’s achievement resonate everywhere. From Iran’s viewpoint, Israel won’t have the last successful word. Thus, Iranian officials have resumed threats, shifting the question of retaliation from “if” to “when.” There’s also a chance Iran might backtrack on its threats, but this could only happen with very lucrative promises that help it navigate the various challenges it faces.

Until then, it seems all the talk of Israeli success in the strike only nudges Iran further toward a response, bringing us back to the waiting game.

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