Lithuania’s Social Democratic Party (LSDP) emerged victorious in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, claiming the majority of seats. Amidst economic grievances and national security concerns, the centre-left opposition secured 52 seats in the 141-member Seimas, the nation’s parliament.
This win marks a substantial lead over the ruling Homeland Union Party, which managed to secure only 28 seats. The education minister, who is a member of the party, also lost her seat to a national conservative candidate in a shock defeat.
Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, leader of the Social Democrats, expressed gratitude for the broad support and confidence from the electorate, stating, “The results of this election showed that the Lithuanian people, no matter where they live, in large cities, in small cities or villages, they want change.” Blinkevičiūtė refrained from confirming whether she would pursue the role of prime minister, indicating the decision would be deliberated within the party.
The Social Democrats are anticipated to form a coalition with two other opposition parties, For Lithuania and the Farmers and Greens Union, which garnered 14 and eight seats respectively. This coalition would give the left-leaning parties a parliamentary majority.
With inflation reaching above 20% two years prior, economic issues were central to the election. The Social Democrats pledged to reform tax policies to alleviate the burden on the lower and middle classes, proposing increased taxes on wealthier citizens to fund enhanced healthcare and social support systems.
However, Lithuania’s robust spending on defence, amounting to nearly 3% of its GDP, is likely to remain unchanged under the new government. According to NATO estimates, this figure positions Lithuania as one of the alliance’s top contributors by GDP percentage, critical for its strategic position bordering Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus.
Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė and her centre-right coalition faced considerable public dissatisfaction due to the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and a widening wealth gap. Homeland Union leader Gabrielius Landsbergis conceded defeat, extending congratulations to the Social Democrats.
One notable outcome of the run-off elections was the defeat of education minister Radvilė Morkūnaitė-Mikulėnienė, a member of Homeland Union. She lost her seat in the Vilnius Pilaitė-Karoliniškės constituency to Vytautas Sinica of the national conservative National Alliance party by a margin of 74 votes, as reported with nearly complete results from 12 of 13 polling stations. Sinica will be the party’s first-ever representative in the Seimas.
Sinica’s National Alliance campaigned on an anti-mass immigration platform, which resonated with segments of the electorate who felt alienated by the rapid social changes promoted by the incumbent government. He has been a vocal critic of progressive policies, aligning with Lithuania’s traditionally conservative stance on family and social issues. In an article for the European Conservative in July 2023, Sinica argued that progressive values, especially those advocating for the legalisation of same-sex partnerships, threaten Lithuania’s cultural fabric. He wrote that these values align Lithuania with Western nations that impose liberal ideologies, thus “moving away from Ukraine and helping Russia in its propaganda war against the West.”
Meanwhile, Lithuania has also faced pressures from the East. The country has refused to bow to Beijing’s retaliation over Vilnius’ ties with Taiwan. In February, Megan Khoo, research and policy advisor for Hong Kong Watch, wrote for the European Conservative on Lithuania’s resilience against China’s economic sanctions, including trade restrictions that were imposed in response to Lithuania allowing a Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius. It remains to be seen whether the new left-wing government will maintain this stance.
While Lithuania’s ties with the West have grown stronger, the nation continues to face geopolitical challenges that underscore its precarious position. The new Social Democratic government will have to balance public demand for economic relief with the necessity of maintaining a strong national defence amidst growing regional instability.