The regime is organizing a presidential campaign ahead of schedule — and within the shortest timeframe possible. The electoral period coincides with the Christmas holidays, which supports conducting a low-profile campaign in a depoliticized society. The authorities aim to prevent protest mobilization among the public.
Propagandists tried until the last moment to maintain intrigue around Lukashenka’s next presidential term. However, the dictator’s nomination papers were the first to be submitted to the Central Election Commission.
Maintaining this suspense has yielded certain effects: society has focused its attention on discussions about a power transition and potential successors. Notably, a segment of the state apparatus has long shown fatigue with Lukashenka’s prolonged rule. The 2022 referendum was intended to formalize an agreement between the ruling class and the dictator regarding the terms of power transfer. However, Lukashenka outmaneuvered the nomenclature and reclaimed full authority. Conversations about another “final” presidential term for Lukashenka help ease tensions among supporters of change, especially amid prolonged authoritarian reactions.
The ruling class has rescheduled the elections for January 26, 2025. The campaign is set for six months earlier than its original date, July 20, 2025. Lukashenka also bypassed one of the most probable election dates, February 23. Earlier, BelPol’s pro-democracy security officials, citing insider information, mentioned the last Sunday in February as the primary voting day. The shift may aim to avoid the influence of potential “black swans” on the campaign.
One of these negative factors could be another round of Belarusian-Russian military maneuvers. Large-scale “West 2025” exercises are planned for that year. The previous “West 2022” maneuvers culminated in Russian troops invading Ukraine during the final days of the electoral campaign. This Kremlin aggression spurred protest mobilization among Belarusians during the February 2022 referendum. The resistance did not reach the scale of 2020, but on voting day, the democratic forces mobilized a significant number of supporters. Over 700 people were detained by the regime’s enforcers on election day. As a result, the ruling class continues to rely heavily on security forces for the 2025 campaign.
Another negative factor could be economic slowdown, with unfavorable forecasts for 2025. However, year-end wages in Belarus traditionally increase due to bonuses and other payments (which are subsequently reduced in the early months of the new year). In January, right before the election, government employees and state sector workers will receive increased wages, serving as an additional incentive to support the incumbent leader.
As alternative candidates, figures who demonstrated loyalty during the 2020 political crisis may be nominated. Former presidential candidate Kanapatskaya actively criticized Tsikhanouskaya during the 2020 elections. Meanwhile, LDP leader Haidukevich withdrew his candidacy in favor of Lukashenka in 2020. Now, the ruling class is testing public reaction to the potential nomination of alternative candidates.
Thus, the regime plans to organize extensive mobilization of government employees and state sector workers for early voting. Lukashenka aims to refresh his domestic and international legitimacy in this way.