Ending the War Does Not Remove the Russian Threat to NATO: If the war ends with Russia keeping the territory that it has occupied, then aggression will be rewarded. The rules-based international order, international law, and UN Charter will all be casualties. China and other potential aggressors will be emboldened. America’s credibility in the eyes of its allies will be diminished. After failing to sufficiently aid Ukraine, the U.S. commitment to Taiwan will be dangerously tested by China.
Russia has not achieved military success but has successfully used nuclear bluster to restrain the U.S. from providing Ukraine with what it needs. Preventing nuclear proliferation is a long-standing U.S. priority, but the lesson of this war is that acquiring nuclear weapons is the only reliable deterrent. The result would be a more dangerous world and weakened U.S. influence.
North Korea has been aiding Russia without facing any consequences precisely because it has become a nuclear state. President Zelenskyy recently remarked that without NATO membership Ukraine might need to pursue the nuclear option.
Russia views treaties as temporary expedients. The U.S., UK, and Russia gave Ukraine security assurances in return for giving up its nukes in 1994. Putin himself has signed agreements confirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Annexing Crimea in 2014 grew his appetite and the Minsk Accords simply provided a pause. The Kremlin will not be satisfied with anything less than dominating Ukraine. The West has failed to realize that foreign aggression and the myth of hostile NATO encirclement sustains Putin’s regime. Peace could undermine his iron grip at home.
Putin has signaled his determination to continue to rearm no matter the cost. Though Russian forces have suffered massive losses, they are transforming and adapting the lessons of today’s battlefield. NATO allies, on the other hand, have been tardy regarding basic capabilities like producing enough ammunition for a sustained conflict.
Except for on the Eastern Flank, NATO nations still don’t take the Russian menace seriously and are unwilling to significantly boost defense spending.
Russian leaders have long said that they are at war with the West, but the West has chosen to ignore it. After the war, Russians will be aggrieved that the West foiled its plans to subjugate Ukraine. Rather than invading a NATO country, Russia will initially continue probing and chipping away at its weaknesses.
The current slew of brazen greyzone attacks in NATO countries, often using criminal networks, to hack, but also physically meddle with critical infrastructure, such as undersea cables, are just a preview of what to expect. Russia is creatively testing everything possible under the threshold of triggering NATO’s Article Five and at the same time putting NATO’s credibility increasingly under question.
The root of the problem is Russia’s imperial identity. Moscow expanded to become the largest country on the planet by terrorizing conquered populations and exploiting their resources. Putin acts in that tradition. Russia uses Ukrainian men in the annexed regions as canon fodder, kidnaps Ukrainian children, and sells stolen Ukrainian grain. Ukrainians are forced to take Russian citizenship or be denied medical assistance.
Once the West pushes Ukraine to accept partial occupation in exchange for peace, the Baltic states might be next. Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians are urgently preparing for such a grim eventuality. Faced with the threat of nuclear escalation, will Western leaders abandon the Baltic states? Their timidity regarding Ukraine does not augur well. Deterrence only works when the adversary believes it is resolute. Putin has learned that the West can be easily intimidated and distracted. Thus he might be prepared to gamble once an opportune moment arises, such as when the U.S. is embroiled in conflicts in Asia or the Middle East.
About the Author:
Andres Kasekamp is a Professor of History at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto. He was previously the Director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute.
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