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Russian forces are making swift and “significant tactical advances” into the eastern Ukrainian city of Selydove, war monitors have said.
Open source data suggests Russian forces advanced in September at their fastest rate since March 2022, despite Ukraine taking a part of Russia’s Kursk region.
Those rapid advances have continued in the past week as Russian forces appear to be charging towards – or even into – the city of Selydove, which is less than 10 miles south of its main target, the larger city of Pokrovsk, a linchpin of the wider Donetsk region’s defences.
“Russian advances into Selydove, as well as territorial gains to the south and north of the town, may soon cause Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the area to avoid being trapped within a collapsing pocket,” writes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank.
A Ukrainian frontline mapping project known as DeepState, known to have close ties to the military, showed in its map Russian forces controlling the eastern outskirts of Selydove, while a significant chunk of its centre was assessed as a disputed “grey zone”.
“The enemy’s defences crumbled suddenly,” says Yuri Podolyaka, a prominent Ukrainian-born, pro-Russian military blogger. Other pro-Russian bloggers gave similar accounts, and said that Russia was now in control of part of Selydove.
Russia’s months-long attack in the direction of Pokrovsk has led to Moscow capturing around 300 square miles of territory since seizing the city of Avdiivka in February.
It has come at great cost, with western intelligence officials estimating Russia has suffered it’s highest monthly military personnel losses in the past few months since the start of the Moscow’s full-scale invasion, averaging between 1000 and 1,200 a month.
Nevertheless, a wide bulge can now be seen protruding from the Russian frontline into Ukrainian-held territory of the Donetsk region.
The region makes up one half of the area known as Donbas – the other half is Luhansk, which is almost entirely controlled by Russia – and has been the site of fighting between Russia and Ukraine since 2014.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his desire to control the entire Donbas.
But as the main point of assault towards Pokrovsk has stalled, the attack has widened across multiple points, towards Toretsk and Niu-York to the north of the bulge and towards Kurakhove to the south.
Selydove, which is between Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, has now become a focal point of Russia’s southern attack.
Ukraine’s General Staff said the most intense Russian assaults along the entire front line were currently taking place in the vicinity of Selydove, and that Russia used both fighter and bomber aircraft to support its attack there.
The General Staff did not say whether or not the Russians were in the town or if Ukrainian forces had fallen back.
But there remains doubts that the attack on Selydove could prove that impactful on the potential takeover of Pokrovsk.
“Russia may well take Selydove in the coming days, but the capture of Selydove does not inherently portend the seizure of Pokrovsk, and, in fact, the seizure of Selydove is likely to have exhausted and attrited Russian forces in a way that will likely reduce their combat effectiveness if they are ordered to pivot towards Pokrovsk,” writes ISW.