“We are talking about up to 20 percent of corrupted votes, and an estimated €150 million interference operation by Russia,” said Valeriu Pasha, program manager at the Moldova-based think-tank WatchDog.MD Community. “Without this massive vote bribing, the result would look totally different. So in these very harsh conditions, the fact that we still have a majority yes vote is already a very good result.”
A transferable model
Speaking to POLITICO ahead of the vote on Sunday, former Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu said the referendum had been called to “settle the domestic conversation in the country” before voters head to the polls in next year’s parliamentary elections, where Sandu and her allies face a host of pro-Russian opposition parties.
That gambit appears to have failed. Instead of demonstrating unity, it has created a dangerous new dividing line, and convinced the Kremlin it pays to try to swing the result.
“The preliminary election results highlight the challenges Brussels faces in extending EU membership to post-Soviet countries,” said Marta Mucznik, an analyst with Crisis Group. “With Moldova preparing for parliamentary elections in 2025, these divisions are likely to shape political discourse in the months ahead.”
That bodes ill for Georgia, where the Georgian Dream party is seeking a majority in parliamentary elections on Saturday, vowing to ban the entire opposition if it secures enough votes. The dramatic campaign comes amid warnings of state capture by Russia, as the country passed Moscow-inspired restrictions on Western-funded nongovernmental organizations, the media and the LGBTQ+ community.
“It’s time Western policymakers woke up to the fact that Russia’s war isn’t just limited to Ukraine — it’s about taking on the democratic world anywhere that Moscow thinks it can exert influence,” said Ivana Stradner of Washington’s Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “And while risk-averse European and American officials think in terms of individual tactics, Putin has a whole strategy he’s using to try and win.”