Attachments
Executive Summary
Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US$3,874 per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation’s infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped.
Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050—that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country’s low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor.
Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country’s political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector’s underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience.
Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. The BioGuinea Foundation (a conservation trust fund) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation initiatives offer opportunities for biodiversity preservation and financial benefits from forest conservation, but proper frameworks for carbon finance transactions need to be put in place.
Addressing Guinea-Bissau’s vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low- carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.
Reform efforts are more likely to succeed if they build on existing strengths. Guinea-Bissau’s main sources of resilience emanate from its natural as well as its societal assets: its youthful population; capacity for interfaith and interethnic coexistence; thriving informal market; and greater legitimacy accorded to its social institutions, namely, its traditional authorities, communal associations, religious leaders, and nongovernmental organizations. Accordingly, efforts to address climate change could rally a broad variety of social groups in the country.
Agriculture is a cornerstone of Guinea-Bissau’s economy, providing vital sustenance and income for most of its citizens, but climate change might affect productivity. Cashew exports, which account for 90 percent of the country’s total export earnings, underscore the economy’s heavy reliance on this single commodity— a dependency that exposes the agricultural sector and the national economy to significant risks. Projected temperature rises and longer drought periods could severely impact agricultural output, especially in the interior regions, potentially reducing GDP by up to 4.1 percent by 2050. To address these challenges and support further economic development, immediate action is required to implement climate-smart agricultural practices, focusing on diversifying crops and developing resistant crop varieties. Over the medium term, it is crucial to invest in the construction of irrigation and dike systems, taking into local knowledge and strengthening women-led structures.
Forest conservation and restoration are vital for sustainable development, including water retention, soil fertility, and the revival of ecosystems. Forests provide critical ecosystem services and are particularly important for the livelihoods of the most impoverished communities. Historically, these forests have enabled Guinea-Bissau to act as a carbon sink. The mangrove forests, which constitute 9 percent of Guinea- Bissau’s land area, are integral to the country’s ecological framework and crucial for coastal resilience. Mangroves are significant for climate change mitigation, with a storage capacity of over 300 million tons of CO2 equivalent, and for climate adaptation as a nature-based solution. They protect against coastal erosion and are essential for the sustainability of fisheries. However, deforestation in recent decades has altered this dynamic, with a loss of nearly 18 percent of the forest cover since 2000, resulting in the emission of over 74.8 million tons of CO2 since 2001.
By adopting improved land management practices and reversing current deforestation trends, Guinea- Bissau could reestablish its status as a carbon sink, potentially qualifying for carbon credits. This shift would also help create more resilient and productive landscapes. In the short term, it is imperative to promote alternative livelihoods to reduce reliance on activities such as fuelwood collection and slash-and-burn farming. Forest monitoring and the governance of protected zones would prevent overexploitation and illicit timber harvesting. For the medium term, it is essential to develop comprehensive landscape management strategies that involve local stakeholders. Environmental preservation will be combined with socioeconomic growth, leveraging Guinea-Bissau’s natural capital for sustainable development. The country must also establish the necessary legal, institutional, and technical frameworks to effectively participate in the carbon market.
With only 31 percent of the population having electricity, energy access in Guinea-Bissau is among the lowest in the region and impedes the nation’s development. Donor-funded projects already contribute to cleaner, more affordable, and reliable electricity, but widespread energy poverty continues to obstruct economic advancement. The national electrical grid, confined to Bissau and its outskirts, limits the expansion of electricity access through grid extension. There is a compelling case for increasing the share of renewable energy and access to clean energy by implementing a least-cost production plan for urban and rural areas. This plan suggests a short-term diversification strategy, including improved connectivity with the region and the already existing connection to the West Africa Power Pool and off-grid systems. This would enable access to hydropower from neighboring countries, potentially meeting over 20 percent of national energy needs by the medium term (2025). Furthermore, in the medium term, scaling up renewable energy use—particularly solar, which is expected to reach up to 46 percent by 2033 in a high growth scenario—would facilitate low-carbon development. This transition would provide the population with more affordable and reliable electricity access while reducing carbon emissions.
Conclusions
Guinea-Bissau’s social protection framework is insufficient, leaving its communities vulnerable to the impacts of disasters. There is a pressing need to devise adaptive social protection strategies. While some initiatives provide temporary relief after disasters, they tend to be sporadic and lack a cohesive, strategic approach. It is imperative to formalize and broaden these safety nets to assist vulnerable populations in recovering from climate-related shocks and help break the cycle of poverty.
The Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Guinea-Bissau presents a strategic framework for aligning development goals with climate change objectives amid the country’s delicate political and institutional landscape. This alignment is crucial for fostering positive sectoral transformations and mitigating the negative effects of climate change.
The report’s key recommendations include strengthening institutional and financial systems to effectively implement the proposed strategies. Establishing political stability, good governance, and a favorable business climate is essential for enhancing climate resilience and promoting sustainable development.
Immediate priorities for the next three years involve the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices, conservation of natural resources, improvement of energy access, and preparation for future policy reforms. These initiatives are designed to provide immediate benefits to vulnerable populations and conserve natural resources.
In this unstable environment, it is crucial to prioritize activities that capitalize on the robust informal market, the legitimacy of traditional authorities, and the efficacy of community-driven approaches. Such activities may encompass community-led forest conservation, the provision of off-grid renewable energy, decentralized services, cooperative methods for adding value to cashew nut production, and community- driven development strategies for water management, agriculture, and social services.
While the CCDR avoids defining longer-term actions due to the high degree of uncertainty, it highlights that climate action is not only compatible, but also fully intertwined with development objectives, and that the best adaptation is high socioeconomic development. Climate strategy should be regularly reviewed to evaluate its effectiveness and adapt the approach as necessary, ensuring that it continues to serve the best interests of Guinea-Bissau’s economy and its people.