(Bloomberg) — Finland unveiled the most optimistic population projection in 17 years that sees immigration offsetting a slump in the number of babies born in the Nordic country.
The population looks set to grow through 2070, supported by more people moving to Finland than leaving, Statistics Finland said in its latest projection on Thursday. The previous estimation published three years ago had presented a bleak scenario in which the population was expected to peak in 2034.
The population, currently at 5.6 million — roughly the size of Minnesota — will exceed 6 million in 2041 and 6.5 million in 2070, the report showed. Assumptions made by the forecasters include a stable birth rate and at least 40,000 more migrants arriving in the country than departing each year.
Those assumptions could be proved wrong by the government’s policies, including a bill to cap immigrants’ right to stay in the country at three or six months should they lose their jobs. That legislation, currently being discussed by the parliament, shows the cabinet of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo is not wedded to its plan to boost work-based immigration as part of a wider effort to balance Finland’s deteriorating public finances.
In addition, a slump in birth rates has continued, with fewer than 50,000 children born annually for the seventh consecutive year. The population is aging, putting pressure on the so-called demographic dependency ratio — the number of working-age people paying to support a growing number of older people and those under 15.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.