Motivating supporters to the ballot box on Election Day will be key to winning Pennsylvania this year, according to the final Franklin & Marshall College poll before Nov. 5.
Vice President Kamala Harris held a 48% to 44% lead over former President Donald Trump among 794 registered Pennsylvania voters, F&M found. That falls within the poll’s 4.3% margin of error.
But among 583 likely voters — registered voters who said they’re “certain” to vote and are “very interested” in the election — she lost her lead. Half of respondents said they’d back Trump, compared to Harris’ 49%. The margin of error for likely voter data grew to 5%.
Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research and the Floyd Institute for Public Policy at F&M, said the “gap” in Harris’ support could spell trouble for the Democratic hopeful.
Independent voters
Of the 118 independent voters surveyed by F&M, 45% said they would vote for Harris and 36% said they would vote for Trump.
Green Party candidate Jill Stein held 7% support and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver had 6% among independent voters. Meanwhile, 6% and 4% of these voters said they’d cast their ballot for someone else or were unsure.
“There’s just not that many independents,” Yost said, underscoring his point that the key to winning Pennsylvania this year will be candidates’ ability to turn out voters.
“She has a nice advantage among moderate voters. She has a good advantage among young voters. But if they don’t turn out, that erases that advantage she has among those groups,” Yost said.
Voter turnout in 2020 reached historic highs nationwide. In Pennsylvania, a record 70.93% voted four years ago. In 2016, about 61% of Pennsylvanians voted in the presidential election.
Yost said the biggest factors harming Harris this year are voters’ perceptions about the economy. The incumbent president’s party is usually blamed for those issues.
The poll found the economy and personal finances were the most important issues for 30% of respondents. The second top issue, government and politicians, was only named by 10% of participants.
“All those contextual things are bad news for Democrats,” Yost said.
But Harris has gained a marginal amount of trust on the economy in recent months. The latest poll showed 42% of respondents said she is “most prepared to handle the economy,” compared to August’s 39%.
“She’s made inroads on the economy,” Yost said. “She’s gotta keep hitting that.”
Still, Trump led that question with 48% of respondents — a slight decrease from 51% in August. That’s his biggest draw for voters, according to the poll.
Those who supported Harris said she has better judgment, is more trustworthy and aligns closer with their views on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage.
“For both parties, it’s all about turnout at this point,” Yost emphasized.
Campaign outreach
Both presidential candidates have dumped historic amounts of money into political advertising to influence Pennsylvanian voters.
While three-quarters of F&M respondents said the attention has made them feel an extra responsibility as voters, 61% said the attention has been irritating. Only 32% said it was exciting.
The most common outreach has been by political mailers – 88% of participants said they have received them from one or both candidates this year. And 79% reported receiving text messages from the candidates.
Yost said the most effective way to influence a voter is face-to-face interaction. Nearly three-fifths (71%) of respondents said they have not had a canvasser come to their door.
“That, in a close election, can make all the difference,” he said.
A ‘toss-up’ Senate race
Voter turnout will equally impact Pennsylvania’s “toss-up” U.S. Senate race, Yost said.
F&M’s poll found that registered voters favored three-term incumbent Bob Casey Jr. (49%) over Republican challenger Dave McCormick (42%). Casey’s lead among independent voters at 41% to McCormick’s 29%.
That may seem like a significant lead for Casey. But other polls show the race has narrowed in the final stretch, as voters have become more familiar with the race before Election Day.
The Cook Political Report earlier this week reclassified the race from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up.”
Those who supported Casey most often cited the Democrat’s character traits (25%), partisanship (24%) and views on women’s rights (15%).
McCormick’s supporters, meanwhile, singled out his partisanship (25%), views on economic policy (19%), positive character traits (11%), negative sentiment toward Casey (9%) and immigration (5%).
Other races down the ballot may also be affected by turnout for the presidential candidates.
F&M found that few of Pennsylvania’s registered voters plan to split their ticket this year. Some 49% of likely voters said they’d vote Harris-Casey, while 48% said they’d vote for Trump-McCormick. One percent, or less, said they’d split their ballots between those candidates’ parties.
Statewide issues
Illegal immigration
Candidates in both the presidential and Senate races have kept the issue of illegal immigration at the center of their campaigns this year.
Immigration ranked as the 7th-most mentioned issue among registered voters in October’s poll. When asked a specific question about illegal immigration, it proved to be divisive.
One-fifth said illegal immigration has had a “very negative” impact on their community, but 39% said it has had no impact. Some 16% said it has had at least somewhat of a positive impact, and 19% said somewhat of a negative impact. Six percent said they did not know.
Fracking and natural gas
Pennsylvania Republicans have consistently attacked their Democratic opponents for past comments opposing fracking and natural gas extraction.
One-fifth of registered voters said fracking has helped the economy in their community “a great deal,” while 28% said “not at all.” Environmentally, 7% said fracking has hurt their community’s environment “a great deal” while 40% said not at all.
More than one-fifth – 23% and 22%, respectively – said they did not know.
More than half, some 51%, of respondents said fracking has done more to help the economy than to harm the environment (33%). Sixteen percent did not know.
Abortion
Support for a woman’s access to abortion remains high in Pennsylvania. About 91% said abortion should be legal at least “under certain circumstances.” Just 9% said it should be illegal in all circumstances.