Here’s Who’s Winning In Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls

Topline

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seeming dead heat just over two weeks before the election, according to at least six surveys over the past week that show Harris with a narrow advantage and three others that found Trump has a slim lead—though the key swing states are virtually tied.

Former President Donald Trump dances on stage after speaking at a campaign rally at the Greensboro … [+] Coliseum on October 22, 2024 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Getty Images

Key Facts

Trump is ahead 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters out Wednesday—a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey (margin of error 2.5, and respondents were able to pick third-party candidates).

Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those who are leaning toward one candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes survey released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), and he’s up one point, 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.

Trump leads 49%-48% with leaners, and is tied at 47% without leaners, if respondents can select third-party candidates, according to HarrisX.

In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a three-point advantage, 47% to 44%, over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.

Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

Trump regained a lead over Harris in a Fox News poll released last week that found him up 50%-48% among likely voters—a change from Harris’ 50%-48% edge in September, after Trump led her 50%-49% in August.

Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.

Who Is Favored To Win The Election, Harris Or Trump?

Trump is favored to win 51 times out of 100, compared to 49 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also gives Trump a narrow 53.1/46.6 edge, but wrote recently he’s “never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50.”

Big Number

0.6. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a 1.8-point lead, and Nate Silver has Harris up 1.6 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?

Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. That means Trump would win the election if the state-level polling proves to be exactly right—but all seven swing states are within low single digits, and most have margins of less than a percentage point.

Surprising Fact

A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll—which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters—showed 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who they would vote for. The support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than past leads Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polling and 50-point lead in 2016 polling. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

How Did The Debate Impact Polls?

Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to plateau, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horserace between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ Sept. 10 debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.

Tags

Here’s Who’s Winning In Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls