Political insiders are preparing for a November scenario where former President Donald Trump will call the election early and declare victory before all the ballots are counted.
Election Day has morphed into election week in the U.S. Pollsters and analysts do not expect votes to be fully tabulated by the night of November 5, and projections of who will win in key battleground states may not come for days, much like the 2020 race.
That year, the election was held on November 3. Most news organizations did not call the race until November 7.
But Trump could move quickly and announce he had won before a final result comes, much as he did in 2020. Because in-person votes are generally counted quicker than the time it takes to process mail ballots, Republicans can appear to have the lead on election nights, only for that lead to disappear once all the votes are tabulated.
Shortly after midnight on November 3, 2020, Trump declared himself the winner, even as contests in battleground states remained too close to call.
The move earned a sharp rebuke from Trump’s fellow Republicans, like former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who called it “a bad political decision,” and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who said he was “very distressed” by Trump’s claims of voter fraud.
Even then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, “Claiming you’ve won the election is different from finishing the counting.”
Former President Donald Trump delivers remarks on Monday in Swannanoa, North Carolina. Political experts say Trump could try to declare an early victory in November’s election.
Former President Donald Trump delivers remarks on Monday in Swannanoa, North Carolina. Political experts say Trump could try to declare an early victory in November’s election.
Win McNamee/Getty Images
Trump would go on to file multiple lawsuits contesting the tabulation of votes in decisive swing states. He implored Georgia’s secretary of state to “find 11,780 votes” to overturn that state’s result and repeatedly urged his supporters to “stop the steal,” rhetoric that Trump critics have said led to the January 6 Capitol riot.
With just two weeks before the election, Vice President Kamala Harris said Tuesday that her campaign is “of course” preparing for Trump to use the same tactics this time around. She told NBC News that the Democrats “have the resources and the expertise” should the former president try to declare an early victory.
“This is a person, Donald Trump, who tried to undo a free and fair election, who still denies the will of the people, who incited a violent mob to attack the United States Capitol, and 140 law enforcement officers were attacked,” she said.
“The American people are, at this point, two weeks out, being presented with a very, very serious decision about what will be the future of our country,” Harris added.
What Happens if Trump Calls the Election Early?
Bob Beatty, the chair of Washburn University’s political science department, told Newsweek that the best indication when predicting Trump’s behavior is “his past actions and rhetoric.”
“Given that, he will most likely call the election early no matter what the results are showing,” Beatty said. “This could have the effect of encouraging mistrust of all results that come in after his declaration and even emboldening some local officials who are tasked with certifying votes to not do so, given that Trump has declared that he has won.”
He said this would be especially likely if the race is too close to call. During the time it takes for the final states to decide the election, “Trump will likely have declared victory and declare any state that ended up going for Harris after showing Trump leading on election night as ‘rigged.'”
David Schultz, a professor in the political science and legal departments at Hamline University, agreed that Trump calling the election prematurely could politically set up the same dynamic seen in the last election, when Trump falsely claimed that ballots counted after election night were illegitimate or fraudulent.
But Schultz told Newsweek that there were no legal implications to Trump declaring victory. In other words, if Trump loses, he still loses.
Sylvia Albert, Common Cause’s democracy and representation policy counsel, said that it won’t matter if Trump tries to declare an early victory because elections are determined by voters, not candidates.
“The candidates have had their time to have their say, and now is the time for voters to have their say to choose their leader,” Albert told Newsweek. “We likely will not know who the winner is on November 5 and that’s OK—it means election workers are taking the time to count every vote accurately.”
She continued: “We expect the candidates to allow voters to have their say and respect the will of the voters, win or lose. The system itself will ensure that the will of the people prevails, regardless of what the candidates may or may not declare.”
Will Record-Breaking Early Voting Prevent Trump From Declaring Premature Win?
One thing that has changed since the last election is Trump’s approach to early voting.
In 2020, Trump falsely claimed that mail-in ballots and early in-person voting led to widespread voter fraud. This year, he’s abandoned those views. In the final leg of the election, his campaign has advocated for these voting methods while also seeking to expand early voting in North Carolina after Hurricane Helene. Trump himself even said Wednesday that he would be voting early in the 2024 election.
“Voting early, I guess, would be good, but people have different feelings about it. But the main thing is you’ve got to get out and you’ve got to vote, and I’ll be voting early,” Trump told Fox & Friends’ Brian Kilmeade.
Early data shows that GOP efforts to encourage early voting are working. Nearly 25 million Americans nationally have cast their ballot so far, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida. That includes a massive number of registered Republicans who have shown up to the polls ahead of Election Day. Data shows that 1.1 million GOP voters have already voted in person, more than the 990,248 registered Democrats who have cast ballots in person.
Schultz told Newsweek that because Trump is now embracing early voting, there may be no “red mirage.” That is when GOP candidates appear to have strong leads on election night, but they slowly decrease as more mail-in ballots favoring Democrats get counted.
With more GOP voters showing up early, Trump may be behind on Election Day, forcing him to change his calculations about how to claim an early victory. Regardless, Schultz doesn’t see the former president conceding.
“If [he’s] behind [on Election Day], he says fraud,” Schultz said. “If he is ahead, he claims victory and claims new votes are fraud.”
Beatty agreed, saying that if Harris wins in the Electoral College, there is “no chance” Trump will concede. Instead, he expects Trump to begin filing “nonstop court cases to stop the certification of the Electoral College votes.”
“If the House goes Republican, then he will also pressure House members to not certify the electoral votes,” Beatty said.
Will Trump Peacefully Concede if Harris Wins?
The January 6 Capitol riot has prompted some observers to question if Trump will peacefully concede a loss to Harris.
But Karoline Leavitt, his national spokesperson, told Newsweek on Wednesday, “There was a peaceful transfer of power in 2020, and there will be again in 2024. President Trump has always been clear: We must have free and fair elections.”