We will defeat Ancient Orange if we just get out to vote!
Virbillion on
our elections are so broken, we need scientists to study the data to project likely outcomes. in a democracy, popularity is meaningless because unpopulated states have outsized representation. so, it’s a given that the democrat will win the popular vote by a landslide as america is overwhelmingly liberal. but we have to do complicated bad faith math and backroom deals with electors. and never mind the for profit entertainment industry of modern political polling that each frame and plant their data so as to drive the reaction based algorithms their profits depend on. and don’t even get me started on agitation pundits that have created a multi billion dollar industry on pissing you off, staring with furrowed brows angrily lying into a camera to drive ad sales.
macbanan on
And you can have a 66 electoral votes lead with 100 votes or 1 million votes.
User4C4C4C on
Her opponent is apparently a walking crime spree so hopefully that lead of hers will increase. Vote.
19Chris96 on
66 would be insane. It would make Trmp’s blood boil, and scare him at the same time, because he knows there would be no contesting that bad of a loss.
CheeseOnMyFingies on
Cue the vast majority of this sub not actually reading the article and just frantically telling each other to vote when this is one of the most high-voting subs on Reddit lol
It’s actually a decent article. While betting sites don’t always get elections right (PredictIt was way off in 2022), the scientist in question notes that polls are often insufficient and Harris’ lead has remained constant since the debate.
CrotchoMan on
Strictly hypothetical until we all cast our votes. Early voting everywhere should start this month.
Gogs85 on
I’m going out to the polls either way. I don’t just want to beat him, I want to DESTROY him. I want to send a message to him and everyone that’s enabled him.
WheresWaldo562 on
The fact that this election is even close is just fucking pathetic… he’s a convicted felon, cultists gonna cult
BioDriver on
Go for the high score!
RandySto on
Hopefully she can pick up steam and finish even stronger. I do not believe that any human being can govern perfectly, but the other party has become a cult of stupidity
cubanesis on
I’m still treating this election like she’s 60 points behind.
Purple_Daikon_7383 on
Trump filing the election interference card soon
Kittens4Brunch on
Don’t believe these reports, vote!
Dariawasright on
Don’t believe any predictions. Go and vote blue all the way down. The Republicans refused to appoint any of Obama’s judges and then lost the popular vote and appointed all of Trump’s judges, who preceded to give him the power of a King. This needs to be undone or there will never be a real election again.
Ulthanon on
The fuck does this guy think she’s gonna do, flip Texas?
I mean, their mouth to God’s ears, but I would not expect that.
jarchack on
Trump could be committed to a psychiatric unit tomorrow and the race would still end up being a nailbiter.
WackyBones510 on
Closed the article when I saw this:
>Instead, the Northwestern University professor deploys a framework based on the betting odds set by folks wagering their dollars not on the candidate they intend to vote for, but the one they expect to win.
It’s a coin flip race. Vote.
autotldr on
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://fortune.com/2024/10/03/kamala-harris-trump-latest-polls-swing-states/) reduced by 94%. (I’m a bot)
*****
> From now until Election Day, Miller is posting the projected electoral vote totals for the two candidates in real time; he updates the numbers shortly after the PredictIT prices change, on his website The Virtual Tout.
> As of 11 AM on October 2, Miller has Harris-Walz leading Trump-Vance by 302 to 236, a substantial bulge of 66 electoral votes.
> By basic electoral math, says Miller, Harris as of today holds a lock on most of the big swing states, looking like a sure winner in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Didn’t they say something similar for Hilary? The pessimist in me is skeptical.
OkCommunity1625 on
Fuck that vote anyway. Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and lost. Joe was supposed to win in a landslide and it was close
Scottydog2 on
Please vote. Personally, I am voting for stability (economic and geopolitical), the rights of my daughters to freely consult with their doctors, and the preservation of democracy. We can take nothing for granted.
TitleVisual6666 on
What the fuck is this article? It’s an ad for a gambling website.
Taste_the__Rainbow on
That’s not very much. Certainly not safe.
grimace24 on
Another day, another prediction. Polls could say Harris 75%, Trump 25% or vice versa I still wouldn’t believe them. Vote!
Orion_2kTC on
Fucking vote to make sure.
automaticpragmatic on
Does not matter unless you vote. Ensure your registration is still active in your state and do your part. [https://www.vote.org/am-i-registered-to-vote/](https://www.vote.org/am-i-registered-to-vote/)
Scottiths on
This is hopeful. However complacency is how the weird old felon got elected in 2016. Not only that, but Harris needs to win in a massive landslide so the GOP can’t have any hope of just stealing the election like in bush v gore.
Also, just think about the narcissistic injury you would be dealing to trump if it was a massive landslide for Harris!
Please, everyone vote. Don’t assume it’s safe and your vote doesn’t count. Every single vote for Harris will show Weird old Felon guy just how disliked he is!
RevolutionaryMind439 on
I voted in PA! My ballot has been received by the county!
istillambaldjohn on
Foreshadowing here. It’s not going to matter. He’s already poised and has dropped seeds of doubt about the legitimacy of all battle ground states so he can file a lawsuit to challenge the results. He has a plan outside of winning legitimately.
He wants to tie up the votes in courts and extend the cases to exceed 1/6/25 where it would go to legislature to decide who won. I wouldn’t say “he” is doing this, but more Trumps “handlers”.
Arizona is the most recent. A few months ago they filed suit stating that az wasn’t following the law regarding proof of citizenship. Then found that there were a number of voters who at the time the dot had different requirements to obtain a license but would be able to register to vote. This week, they stated over 200k voters have not been validated. They have been sitting on this for months. It’s intentionally filed too close to the voter registration date (10/7), and no way to flush out which voters need to re-register in time, nor enable any way to change our election process to flush out who needs to prove their citizenship. It’s not about the legitimacy of the claim. It’s the doubt. Now it’s going to be Trump wins or a lawsuit is filed stating that the vote is invalid and the courts will side with him.
I’m not afraid of a fair election. I’m afraid of a Trump election.
Shaman7102 on
Vote, check voter status regularly
shockinglyunoriginal on
Not sure where he’s getting that when 538, Nate Silver and the NYT all show the electoral college being neck and neck 260-270
Soren_Camus1905 on
I have a horrible gut feeling that this election is going to be pure chaos.
And it is all because there were no material consequences dealt after 2020.
MagicSPA on
Don’t get complacent. Don’t assume it’s in the bag.
Get out and vote. Not just to win the election, but to **crush** the entire Trump/MAGA movement.
HockeyBalboa on
Right but he’s not factoring in GOP cheating and legal tricks.
jaywastaken on
It’s an embarrassment it’s anywhere near being so close.
37 Comments
We will defeat Ancient Orange if we just get out to vote!
our elections are so broken, we need scientists to study the data to project likely outcomes. in a democracy, popularity is meaningless because unpopulated states have outsized representation. so, it’s a given that the democrat will win the popular vote by a landslide as america is overwhelmingly liberal. but we have to do complicated bad faith math and backroom deals with electors. and never mind the for profit entertainment industry of modern political polling that each frame and plant their data so as to drive the reaction based algorithms their profits depend on. and don’t even get me started on agitation pundits that have created a multi billion dollar industry on pissing you off, staring with furrowed brows angrily lying into a camera to drive ad sales.
And you can have a 66 electoral votes lead with 100 votes or 1 million votes.
Her opponent is apparently a walking crime spree so hopefully that lead of hers will increase. Vote.
66 would be insane. It would make Trmp’s blood boil, and scare him at the same time, because he knows there would be no contesting that bad of a loss.
Cue the vast majority of this sub not actually reading the article and just frantically telling each other to vote when this is one of the most high-voting subs on Reddit lol
It’s actually a decent article. While betting sites don’t always get elections right (PredictIt was way off in 2022), the scientist in question notes that polls are often insufficient and Harris’ lead has remained constant since the debate.
Strictly hypothetical until we all cast our votes. Early voting everywhere should start this month.
I’m going out to the polls either way. I don’t just want to beat him, I want to DESTROY him. I want to send a message to him and everyone that’s enabled him.
The fact that this election is even close is just fucking pathetic… he’s a convicted felon, cultists gonna cult
Go for the high score!
Hopefully she can pick up steam and finish even stronger. I do not believe that any human being can govern perfectly, but the other party has become a cult of stupidity
I’m still treating this election like she’s 60 points behind.
Trump filing the election interference card soon
Don’t believe these reports, vote!
Don’t believe any predictions. Go and vote blue all the way down. The Republicans refused to appoint any of Obama’s judges and then lost the popular vote and appointed all of Trump’s judges, who preceded to give him the power of a King. This needs to be undone or there will never be a real election again.
The fuck does this guy think she’s gonna do, flip Texas?
I mean, their mouth to God’s ears, but I would not expect that.
Trump could be committed to a psychiatric unit tomorrow and the race would still end up being a nailbiter.
Closed the article when I saw this:
>Instead, the Northwestern University professor deploys a framework based on the betting odds set by folks wagering their dollars not on the candidate they intend to vote for, but the one they expect to win.
It’s a coin flip race. Vote.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://fortune.com/2024/10/03/kamala-harris-trump-latest-polls-swing-states/) reduced by 94%. (I’m a bot)
*****
> From now until Election Day, Miller is posting the projected electoral vote totals for the two candidates in real time; he updates the numbers shortly after the PredictIT prices change, on his website The Virtual Tout.
> As of 11 AM on October 2, Miller has Harris-Walz leading Trump-Vance by 302 to 236, a substantial bulge of 66 electoral votes.
> By basic electoral math, says Miller, Harris as of today holds a lock on most of the big swing states, looking like a sure winner in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/1fv7sp3/harris_holds_a_66_electoral_vote_lead_over_trump/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ “Version 2.02, ~694594 tl;drs so far.”) | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr “PM’s and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.”) | *Top* *keywords*: **Miller**^#1 **vote**^#2 **Harris**^#3 **Trump**^#4 **electoral**^#5
You have to vote! Get registered and vote! 🇺🇲
Didn’t they say something similar for Hilary? The pessimist in me is skeptical.
Fuck that vote anyway. Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and lost. Joe was supposed to win in a landslide and it was close
Please vote. Personally, I am voting for stability (economic and geopolitical), the rights of my daughters to freely consult with their doctors, and the preservation of democracy. We can take nothing for granted.
What the fuck is this article? It’s an ad for a gambling website.
That’s not very much. Certainly not safe.
Another day, another prediction. Polls could say Harris 75%, Trump 25% or vice versa I still wouldn’t believe them. Vote!
Fucking vote to make sure.
Does not matter unless you vote. Ensure your registration is still active in your state and do your part. [https://www.vote.org/am-i-registered-to-vote/](https://www.vote.org/am-i-registered-to-vote/)
This is hopeful. However complacency is how the weird old felon got elected in 2016. Not only that, but Harris needs to win in a massive landslide so the GOP can’t have any hope of just stealing the election like in bush v gore.
Also, just think about the narcissistic injury you would be dealing to trump if it was a massive landslide for Harris!
Please, everyone vote. Don’t assume it’s safe and your vote doesn’t count. Every single vote for Harris will show Weird old Felon guy just how disliked he is!
I voted in PA! My ballot has been received by the county!
Foreshadowing here. It’s not going to matter. He’s already poised and has dropped seeds of doubt about the legitimacy of all battle ground states so he can file a lawsuit to challenge the results. He has a plan outside of winning legitimately.
He wants to tie up the votes in courts and extend the cases to exceed 1/6/25 where it would go to legislature to decide who won. I wouldn’t say “he” is doing this, but more Trumps “handlers”.
Arizona is the most recent. A few months ago they filed suit stating that az wasn’t following the law regarding proof of citizenship. Then found that there were a number of voters who at the time the dot had different requirements to obtain a license but would be able to register to vote. This week, they stated over 200k voters have not been validated. They have been sitting on this for months. It’s intentionally filed too close to the voter registration date (10/7), and no way to flush out which voters need to re-register in time, nor enable any way to change our election process to flush out who needs to prove their citizenship. It’s not about the legitimacy of the claim. It’s the doubt. Now it’s going to be Trump wins or a lawsuit is filed stating that the vote is invalid and the courts will side with him.
I’m not afraid of a fair election. I’m afraid of a Trump election.
Vote, check voter status regularly
Not sure where he’s getting that when 538, Nate Silver and the NYT all show the electoral college being neck and neck 260-270
I have a horrible gut feeling that this election is going to be pure chaos.
And it is all because there were no material consequences dealt after 2020.
Don’t get complacent. Don’t assume it’s in the bag.
Get out and vote. Not just to win the election, but to **crush** the entire Trump/MAGA movement.
Right but he’s not factoring in GOP cheating and legal tricks.
It’s an embarrassment it’s anywhere near being so close.