Sorry for the clickbait headline, but the state is Iowa:
> Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead to four points, trailing the former president 47% to 43% in Iowa, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Sunday.
> The poll represents a shocking reversal from where Trump stood in the state in spring, when the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Trump leading President Biden by 18 points in Iowa, 50% to 32%.
Trump won the state by about 10 points in both 2016 and 2020, so a 4-point lead would be a significant underperformance for him, and probably indicates him struggling in the Midwest.
However, the headline could just as well refer to Alaska, as [a poll taken there recently](https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/1834657704708915235) showed Trump leading by only 5 points in a what is normally considered a safe Republican state.
Gobias_Industries on
These states like Iowa and Alaska are *probably* not going to flip, but they’re very similar to swing states that could.
Narrowing gaps in historically red states like these can only be a good sign.
PopeTheoskeptik on
I’m always slightly suspicious of integers in general, but 4% seems to be within most people’s definition of an error margin in this context.
dinocakeparty on
Iowa? I’ve been to Iowa. He’s fucked.
armchairmegalomaniac on
I cannot believe that this hyper-violent shit show surrounding Trump and Vance helps them get elected. The two of them are more interested in getting Haitians killed in Ohio than doing any kind of actual campaigning. Trump’s violent chickens keep coming home to roost with his former followers stalking him and trying to assassinate him. The Republican rhetoric gets more and more violent and insane. They’d rather have a Civil War than a Presidential election.
schuey_08 on
All of these “bonus swing states” help by forcing Trump to focus time and money in places where previously he didn’t need to. I can’t help but feel encouraged by these developments, especially with Harris’ relative surpluses of energy and funds.
ImmediatelyOrSooner on
You mean the sane and stable mental state? That was never a safe place for Trump.
Spare_Substance5003 on
Even if Harris doesn’t win in these states. They are still requiring the GOP to divert money to keep them red.
Ande64 on
I’m from Iowa and I cannot tell you how significant this is. I’m actually seeing more and more Harris/Walz signs in yards and way less Trump. There’s definitely a positive buzz and energy from the Democratic side right now whipping through Iowa and I hope if we can’t vote Trump out from this state, at least we can get some of the down races turned blue!
BeautysBeast on
I want to throw this out as a hypothetical.
How many women, who currently live in a house that would be considered “Pro Trump” are going to silently vote for Harris? I think that number is going to be quite a bit larger than the poles currently reflect.
LittleBallOfWait on
>The poll represents a shocking reversal from where Trump stood in the state in spring, when the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Trump leading President Biden by 18 points in Iowa, 50% to 32%.
18 points down to 4 in less than slightly less than 8 weeks. Now, 7 weeks out. If nothing else, Trump is going to have to spend money defending Iowa.
suburban_paradise on
Obama won Iowa twice if I recall correctly so while there’s definitely a sizable population of low information voters it is still possible to do well there
ahorseofborscht on
As an Iowan I’m just selfishly happy about this because maybe this means we’ll get at least Walz dropping by for like an hour some weekday morning. The congressional races in Iowa are looking promising this year too so it’d be a good chance to boost them too.
Free-Bird-199- on
Harris is sending money downballot. Don Old is not.
Money is always the key.Â
Jwstern on
Before we get too excited about the poll, Iowa polled as a toss-up in 2020 and Trump won by 8%.
Right now, 538 is calling Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina ties. Here’s the list of the next states (likelihood of Harris winning first)
Florida
Texas
Ohio
Iowa
Alaska
South Carolina
corduroytrees on
Excellent, throw it on the pile.
I got lambasted a couple of weeks ago by a few ‘concerned Redditors’ when polls showed Harris shortening the gap in Texas. It would be amazing if she can get one of these ‘unexpected’ states as the icing on the cake.
As I pointed out last time though, the real benefit is in the money. I doubt anyone is travelling to Alaska to campaign, but if the gap in these red states gets to less than 4%, Trump is going to have to spend some money and at least send some surrogates into the fray to try to stop the bleeding. He cannot afford to lose any of them. And that just means less money for the traditional battle ground states.
rabid89 on
Tim Miller of the Bulwark had an interesting short video about why the Iowa poll might be spelling real trouble for Trump.
It’s not that Trump’s gonna lose the state, but that Iowa is demographically similar to parts of battleground states that were historically strongly Trump areas and you have to wonder if the votes are shifting there too.
30 Comments
The state is Iowa.
I hate headline editors like this.
Iowa.
It’s close in Alaska too. 42 vs 47for Trump
Sorry for the clickbait headline, but the state is Iowa:
> Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead to four points, trailing the former president 47% to 43% in Iowa, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Sunday.
> The poll represents a shocking reversal from where Trump stood in the state in spring, when the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Trump leading President Biden by 18 points in Iowa, 50% to 32%.
Trump won the state by about 10 points in both 2016 and 2020, so a 4-point lead would be a significant underperformance for him, and probably indicates him struggling in the Midwest.
However, the headline could just as well refer to Alaska, as [a poll taken there recently](https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/1834657704708915235) showed Trump leading by only 5 points in a what is normally considered a safe Republican state.
These states like Iowa and Alaska are *probably* not going to flip, but they’re very similar to swing states that could.
Narrowing gaps in historically red states like these can only be a good sign.
I’m always slightly suspicious of integers in general, but 4% seems to be within most people’s definition of an error margin in this context.
Iowa? I’ve been to Iowa. He’s fucked.
I cannot believe that this hyper-violent shit show surrounding Trump and Vance helps them get elected. The two of them are more interested in getting Haitians killed in Ohio than doing any kind of actual campaigning. Trump’s violent chickens keep coming home to roost with his former followers stalking him and trying to assassinate him. The Republican rhetoric gets more and more violent and insane. They’d rather have a Civil War than a Presidential election.
All of these “bonus swing states” help by forcing Trump to focus time and money in places where previously he didn’t need to. I can’t help but feel encouraged by these developments, especially with Harris’ relative surpluses of energy and funds.
You mean the sane and stable mental state? That was never a safe place for Trump.
Even if Harris doesn’t win in these states. They are still requiring the GOP to divert money to keep them red.
I’m from Iowa and I cannot tell you how significant this is. I’m actually seeing more and more Harris/Walz signs in yards and way less Trump. There’s definitely a positive buzz and energy from the Democratic side right now whipping through Iowa and I hope if we can’t vote Trump out from this state, at least we can get some of the down races turned blue!
I want to throw this out as a hypothetical.
How many women, who currently live in a house that would be considered “Pro Trump” are going to silently vote for Harris? I think that number is going to be quite a bit larger than the poles currently reflect.
>The poll represents a shocking reversal from where Trump stood in the state in spring, when the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Trump leading President Biden by 18 points in Iowa, 50% to 32%.
18 points down to 4 in less than slightly less than 8 weeks. Now, 7 weeks out. If nothing else, Trump is going to have to spend money defending Iowa.
Obama won Iowa twice if I recall correctly so while there’s definitely a sizable population of low information voters it is still possible to do well there
As an Iowan I’m just selfishly happy about this because maybe this means we’ll get at least Walz dropping by for like an hour some weekday morning. The congressional races in Iowa are looking promising this year too so it’d be a good chance to boost them too.
Harris is sending money downballot. Don Old is not.
Money is always the key.Â
Before we get too excited about the poll, Iowa polled as a toss-up in 2020 and Trump won by 8%.
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/iowa/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/iowa/)
Right now, 538 is calling Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina ties. Here’s the list of the next states (likelihood of Harris winning first)
Florida
Texas
Ohio
Iowa
Alaska
South Carolina
Excellent, throw it on the pile.
I got lambasted a couple of weeks ago by a few ‘concerned Redditors’ when polls showed Harris shortening the gap in Texas. It would be amazing if she can get one of these ‘unexpected’ states as the icing on the cake.
As I pointed out last time though, the real benefit is in the money. I doubt anyone is travelling to Alaska to campaign, but if the gap in these red states gets to less than 4%, Trump is going to have to spend some money and at least send some surrogates into the fray to try to stop the bleeding. He cannot afford to lose any of them. And that just means less money for the traditional battle ground states.
Tim Miller of the Bulwark had an interesting short video about why the Iowa poll might be spelling real trouble for Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkAsVMT0QSs
It’s not that Trump’s gonna lose the state, but that Iowa is demographically similar to parts of battleground states that were historically strongly Trump areas and you have to wonder if the votes are shifting there too.
Iowa was one a a few states whose Secretary of Statw office was evacuated due to a suspicious package as well: https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/iowa-secretary-of-states-office-evacuated-staffer-confirms
No motive info yet it seems…
Even for the GOP to have to spend other-intended funds here would be a win
It’s Iowa.
People don’t want another 4 years of bat shit crazy from a person who clearly is skipping mentally.
It’s never too safe to not vote.
It’s that damn Tayler Swift. .
I hope she starts working Iowa and Ohio a bit more
As an Iowan (living in MO), I’m happy to see this!!
Do a floridia strategy. Say 5 mil to lay the ground work for 2028.