Harris leads Trump by 3 points in North Carolina survey

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4871215-kamala-harris-leading-donald-trump-north-carolina-survey/

34 Comments

  1. This is going to cause Harris to take a massive hit on Nate Silver’s model, for some reason 

  2. > The WRAL/SurveyUSA poll shows Harris leading Trump with 49 percent support to his 46 percent, while 5 percent said they were undecided.

    And SurveyUSA is a [top-tier pollster according to 538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/)! Of course this is only one poll (although [another poll released yesterday from Quinnipiac University also shows Harris leading by 3 points in NC](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3904)), but if Harris actually manages to flip NC, I don’t see how she doesn’t win the presidency. Like Gov. Roy Cooper said, if Kamala Harris wins North Carolina, [“she is the next president of the United States”](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-carolina-2024-election-kamala-harris-roy-cooper-face-the-nation/).

  3. In other news.

    47% of North Carolina’s voters refuse to watch a single Kamala Harris rally, town hall or interview.

  4. That’s encouraging yet still MoE (margin of error) territory.

    2 or 3 more points, though, and shit’s gettin’ **real** in NC.

    Wow.

  5. PlentyMacaroon8903 on

    So you’re telling me Harris is ahead in NC by more than she is nationally? It’s almost like that poll was fucked.

  6. I thought Trump had a guaranteed win this year, I was fortunately wrong. Lets hope Harris can make Trump explode enough

  7. Biden was polling nearly 2 points up on election day in 2020 in NC and lost by 1.5 points. Harris is still behind.

  8. It’s interesting that she’s listed up +3 in NC while being -3 in neighboring GA per the recent Quinnipiac poll yesterday. Makes me wonder if Robinson’s disastrous governor campaign might be dragging Trump down (he’s currently trailing the Dem candidate by almost 11%).

  9. Frosty_Smile8801 on

    The dnc has money to put into ga and nc and florida which is gonna force trump to find more money or move money from pa.

    Reagan is gonna be jelly of the margin she wins by cause the rats are gonna jump ship when they start to see they really are about to be on the losing side again. many wont bother to go vote and these close races will turn into solid blue.

  10. Objective_Regret2768 on

    Trumps ads in North Carolina are the biggest eye roll possible. Just accusations and no actual policies to improve any of the issues

  11. robotractor3000 on

    From NC. Mark Robinson is mask off bad news. Theres a lot of people in my conservative family and their friend groups that voted Trump in ‘16 and ‘20 but are weakening on him due to… everything… and Mark Robinson saying he wants to go back to before women could vote and being a holocaust denier and all the rest of it is really hastening that process. It’s hard to believe but there’s some conservative voters, primarily women, who are struggling to convince themselves the party they support by default and would prefer to vote for is actually the right choice this time around.

    Between the ever increasing growth of our metro areas (Raleigh, Durham and Asheville are blowing up rn) and the shrinking of the base Trump/Robinson voters I think it is very possible NC flips blue this year. I kinda wish we had a senate election in the mix as this is the perfect opportunity for a democrat to slip into one of those seats.

  12. North Carolinian here, is anyone else in the state getting 3 different mailers a day from the Trump campaign?

    I’m more than happy for the campaign to waste their money on sending stuff to my house, but wow does it seem desperate.

  13. GeneralTall6075 on

    North Carolina has been my sleeper in this election. It hasn’t been getting nearly enough attention from anyone but the Harris campaign. The population growth in Charlotte and Raleigh Durham is substantial and Republicans have a uniquely awful Governor candidate that I believe will pull in more women to vote and drag Trump down. Trump is almost certainly cooked if he loses here and this is one of 3 polls in the last day to show Harris with a narrow edge. It is probably the state to watch early on election night.

  14. If she wins here she can afford to lose Pennsylvania and still win the presidency. This is great news.

  15. Biden was up in NC by almost 2% on election day 2020 and lost by 1.5% – so even if Trump overperforms by the same amount this year (and there’s no guarantee he will) this puts Harris well within striking distance in a state Trump must win.

    Just remember – ahead in the polls doesn’t mean victory on election day unless we can find a way to get all of those less reliable Democrats to actually turn out. We need to be doing everything we can to try to reach out to those folks and get them committed to showing up. Even a small slump in turnout could spell disaster.

  16. Raspberries-Are-Evil on

    Nothing would be more amazing than at 10pm west coast time for North Carolina to go Harris, game over.

  17. Alarming_Succotash73 on

    How can this be true while it also being true that Trump is still the national favorite. Make these inconsistent polls make sense PLEASE.

  18. Honestly, this is nice news to hear but I’m still acting like Harris is losing. I have to mentally prepare for the worst.

  19. Liberal and Conservative Groups are cheery picking polls to push a narrative. If you are anti Trump you find a poll that showcases the result you want and try to create a trend or reality of your choice.

  20. Darth_Malgus_1701 on

    I’m glad I made that donation to the NC Dem party. Go blue this year and make it a repeat of 2008! Yes you can!