[Goldman Sachs](https://fortune.com/company/goldman-sachs-group/) Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for Donald Trump.
“We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse” from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists including Alec Phillips wrote in a note Tuesday.
Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”
armchairmegalomaniac on
Republican administrations are really good at revving up the stock market for short term gains and Democratic ones are really good at cleaning up the inevitable mess that results from those Republican policies.
0210- on
It only makes sense , invest in infrastructure, new chip capabilities , alternative energy. This is how we keep America great!
Searchlights on
Well, yeah.
How would slashing federal revenues, driving up the debt and having a President who will invent tariffs at 2 in the morning be good for the economy?
He got a pass last time because the economic fuckery was global but his unpredictability didn’t help anything
SuperGenius9800 on
History shows trickle down economics is a scam. This checks out.
DrPlexel1234 on
Excellent news for America if Harris gets elected.
OppositeDifference on
>Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”
You can almost taste their reluctance to say anything good about Harris.
That being said, I really do hope that some day we find a better measure of the well-being of the economy than GDP growth and the stock market.
Honestly, the kind of metrics we should be using are the average assets owned by the middle class. Average non-investment debt per capita. How many hamburgers you can buy per paycheck…
Something that measures how the economy is working for the vast majority of us would be nice.
code_archeologist on
Let’s check some other headlines in this.
Fox News: Has Goldman Sachs Gone Woke?!
OAN: Goldman Sachs Infiltrated by Communists
Breitbart: *incoherent screeching noises*
2a_lib on
A rising tide lifts all boats.
MatrimCauthon95 on
Yes. Republicans are historically awful for the economy. Their biggest success is convincing the ignorant that it’s the opposite.
dreamyjeans on
That’s only been going on for 100 years. I’m not sure if we can establish a trend yet… /s
leeuwerik on
Economy thrives under dems more often.
shnootsberry on
Who cares what “experts” think. Everyone knows that trump knows better because he was sent here by jebus and democrats are communist nazis with low IQ. /s
ElPlywood on
but but but trump said there would be a 1929 size economy crash if dems were elected
mudriverrat07020 on
First good thing Goldman Sachs has ever done for the country
Nok_Sukow on
History is never wrong, the economy does better under Dem leadership. Dems get it done and Harris/Walz will deliver as well.
3rdPlaceYoureFired on
Waiting for the “I’m a democrat but I think Trump will be better for the economy” cosplaying republicans.
> "We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse" from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists including Alec Phillips wrote in a note Tuesday.
> Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, "New spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates," the Goldman economists wrote.
Well, Goldman Sachs has a truckload more influence on this election than you or I can ever have. So let’s see if they put their money where their mouth is.
(Yes, I know Citizens United is bad. But as long as it exists, might as well use it to our advantage.)
codacoda74 on
This needs to be won by a big enough margin to make the GOP go back to their room and think about their behavior before they can come back out and play Society.
Am parent.
echoeco on
…I’m almost laughing…and yay….
Mysentimentexactly on
It’s always the case when democrats take office – not sure why this is such a relevation
Berserker76 on
Putting money in the hands of people who are actually going to spend it, instead of hoarding and hiding it in offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands, drives economic activity and makes everyone more successful. Go figure.
VonTastrophe on
You know what the economy likes? Stability. What does the economy hate? Chaos and unpredictability.
Trump is the agent of chaos. Chaos incarnate, perhaps.
Kamala is boring. The economy digs boring.
InternetsTad on
Obvious headline is obvious.
ReaderBeeRottweiler on
What are the reasonable chances of the Dems sweeping the White House and both houses of Congress? Genuinely curious.
ImprovementSilly2895 on
Unfortunately the senate is a likely loss.
Outrageous-Book9799 on
It’s OVER for the GOP if Goldman is in
thistimelineisweird on
Here’s why this is bad for Biden…
Worried_Quarter469 on
Goldman Sachs *endorses* entire Kamala ticket
Extreme_Lunch_8744 on
“No shit”- everyone who doesn’t vote on vibes alone
roguebananah on
Ah yes. But Trump and the GOP are better for the economy.
Makes TOTAL sense
Rooster_CPA on
Huh. My dad said fox news said America will crater to the 1920s
Free-Bird-199- on
The markets and businesses don’t like chaos – unless they’re like Musk and trying to destroy America.
HisGibness on
History shows republicans are responsible for the crash in ‘29 and ‘08.
Trickle down is horseshit
aircooledJenkins on
It’s pretty easy to predict outcomes that are supported by multiple points in history.
39 Comments
This link should actually be paywall-free 😊
Still, some details from inside:
[Goldman Sachs](https://fortune.com/company/goldman-sachs-group/) Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for Donald Trump.
“We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse” from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists including Alec Phillips wrote in a note Tuesday.
Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”
Republican administrations are really good at revving up the stock market for short term gains and Democratic ones are really good at cleaning up the inevitable mess that results from those Republican policies.
It only makes sense , invest in infrastructure, new chip capabilities , alternative energy. This is how we keep America great!
Well, yeah.
How would slashing federal revenues, driving up the debt and having a President who will invent tariffs at 2 in the morning be good for the economy?
He got a pass last time because the economic fuckery was global but his unpredictability didn’t help anything
History shows trickle down economics is a scam. This checks out.
Excellent news for America if Harris gets elected.
>Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”
You can almost taste their reluctance to say anything good about Harris.
That being said, I really do hope that some day we find a better measure of the well-being of the economy than GDP growth and the stock market.
Honestly, the kind of metrics we should be using are the average assets owned by the middle class. Average non-investment debt per capita. How many hamburgers you can buy per paycheck…
Something that measures how the economy is working for the vast majority of us would be nice.
Let’s check some other headlines in this.
Fox News: Has Goldman Sachs Gone Woke?!
OAN: Goldman Sachs Infiltrated by Communists
Breitbart: *incoherent screeching noises*
A rising tide lifts all boats.
Yes. Republicans are historically awful for the economy. Their biggest success is convincing the ignorant that it’s the opposite.
That’s only been going on for 100 years. I’m not sure if we can establish a trend yet… /s
Economy thrives under dems more often.
Who cares what “experts” think. Everyone knows that trump knows better because he was sent here by jebus and democrats are communist nazis with low IQ. /s
but but but trump said there would be a 1929 size economy crash if dems were elected
First good thing Goldman Sachs has ever done for the country
History is never wrong, the economy does better under Dem leadership. Dems get it done and Harris/Walz will deliver as well.
Waiting for the “I’m a democrat but I think Trump will be better for the economy” cosplaying republicans.
Goldman Sachs – what a bunch of commies.
/s if that wasn’t obvious.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://fortune.com/2024/09/03/goldman-sachs-predicts-stronger-gdp-and-job-growth-if-democrats-sweep-white-house-and-congress/?abc123) reduced by 75%. (I’m a bot)
*****
> Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for Donald Trump.
> "We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse" from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists including Alec Phillips wrote in a note Tuesday.
> Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, "New spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates," the Goldman economists wrote.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/1f8b6li/goldman_sachs_predicts_stronger_gdp_and_job/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ “Version 2.02, ~693269 tl;drs so far.”) | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr “PM’s and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.”) | *Top* *keywords*: **Goldman**^#1 **win**^#2 **Trump**^#3 **economists**^#4 **high**^#5
….and how this is bad for Harris. /s
It’s almost like fascism is bad for business.
Well, Goldman Sachs has a truckload more influence on this election than you or I can ever have. So let’s see if they put their money where their mouth is.
(Yes, I know Citizens United is bad. But as long as it exists, might as well use it to our advantage.)
This needs to be won by a big enough margin to make the GOP go back to their room and think about their behavior before they can come back out and play Society.
Am parent.
…I’m almost laughing…and yay….
It’s always the case when democrats take office – not sure why this is such a relevation
Putting money in the hands of people who are actually going to spend it, instead of hoarding and hiding it in offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands, drives economic activity and makes everyone more successful. Go figure.
You know what the economy likes? Stability. What does the economy hate? Chaos and unpredictability.
Trump is the agent of chaos. Chaos incarnate, perhaps.
Kamala is boring. The economy digs boring.
Obvious headline is obvious.
What are the reasonable chances of the Dems sweeping the White House and both houses of Congress? Genuinely curious.
Unfortunately the senate is a likely loss.
It’s OVER for the GOP if Goldman is in
Here’s why this is bad for Biden…
Goldman Sachs *endorses* entire Kamala ticket
“No shit”- everyone who doesn’t vote on vibes alone
Ah yes. But Trump and the GOP are better for the economy.
Makes TOTAL sense
Huh. My dad said fox news said America will crater to the 1920s
The markets and businesses don’t like chaos – unless they’re like Musk and trying to destroy America.
History shows republicans are responsible for the crash in ‘29 and ‘08.
Trickle down is horseshit
It’s pretty easy to predict outcomes that are supported by multiple points in history.