Kamala Harris will win this year’s US presidential election, a Telegraph poll of swing states predicts for the first time.
The vice-president is winning in enough battleground states to propel her to the White House in November’s election, following weeks of gains on Donald Trump.
A survey conducted in seven swing states for The Telegraph by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found Ms Harris is projected to win the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which would allocate her 270 electoral college delegates.
The winning candidate must secure at least 270 delegates to win the election, giving Ms Harris a narrow victory over Trump, who would win 262, the poll finds.
The figures suggest Ms Harris would take the same path to the White House as Joe Biden in 2020, relying on support from the midwestern Rust Belt states
Trump is projected to win the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while the pair are tied on 47 per cent of the vote in Nevada.
The analysis of the results assumes that the 43 remaining states vote in the same way as they did in 2020.
The poll finds Trump’s support in North Carolina, a state he won in 2020, has been cut by two points since The Telegraph’s last poll before the Democratic National Convention last month.
Ms Harris is now one point behind Trump in both North Carolina and Arizona, which Mr Biden won at the last election.
The findings show that she has narrowed Trump’s lead in most swing states, following Mr Biden’s decision to step back from the presidential race on July 21.
Mr Biden has a net negative approval rating in all states polled, apart from Georgia, while Ms Harris has a positive rating in all seven states.
Kind of wild result considering that the Telegraph is a very conservative readership.
Mike_Pences_Mother on
just vote.
JubalHarshaw23 on
Come back tomorrow when Telegraph says the exact opposite.
Blablablaballs on
The only poll that matters is November 5th, and if we ignore that one we’d better get ready for our evangelical reeducation.Â
heymofothatsmyride on
Please, Dems. Let’s keep running scared. Remember what happened in 2016.
howldetroit on
Kinda cool that this path they mention (PA/WI/MI) exempts Kamala from all the fuckery predicted in GA. I hope they try all their dumb ass certification crap, lose anyway, and then a bunch of them go to jail.
Markis_Shepherd on
Good. However, polls don’t predict what the result will be in November. They give an estimate of where the race stands right now. Things can change and there are many undecided in the polls and we do not know how they will vote. Forecast models use, among others, polls to predict the probability of outcomes (Harris or Trump) in November. Some have Trump as a small favorite.
Keunster on
He’s going to cheat
Huge_JackedMann on
Id honestly be surprised if Harris doesn’t win in Arizona. They’ve been trending blue, have a total albatross of the GOP Senate candidate and have abortion on the ballot.
It’s also anecdotal but my ex sister in law who is a total low info, trump demo non voter is actually excited about Harris and has registered to vote just so she can for her. If people like her are turned up for Harris generally, Trump is cooked in AZ.
thatfatbastard on
We’re all complaining about landline polls and these guys are using telegraphs!
payle_knite on
Hillary was up by same margin at this point. Foot on the gas.
alogbetweentworocks on
Ignore the polls whether they’re favorable or unfavorable. Go VOTE!
absentmindedjwc on
Winning isn’t enough. It needs to be a crushing defeat. Without losing both the Senate and the House, it’s not going to send a message to republicans that MAGA isn’t a winning strategy.
User4C4C4C on
The win needs to be by significant numbers so there is no room for sore loser DJT to dispute or manipulate it. Vote.
thefrozenorth on
Ask Hillary if she’s heard that one before. Never count your chickens before the hatch. Trump can still win if state Republicans hijack the electoral collage…which they are now doing. Only vast street protests will win Kamala the presidency.
I_like_baseball90 on
“Kamala Harris will win US election, Telegraph poll predicts.
How this is bad for Kamala Harris.”
On the next Telegraph Poll.
Transhumanistgamer on
I don’t care if a time traveler comes down and shows us a video of Harris’ inauguration. Check your voter registration. Get your friends and family to do the same. And VOTE.
D0nCoyote on
Fuck the polls and fuck telegraph. Get out and VOTE! Check your voter registration status often. They have proven that they will do absolutely anything to try to get ahead. Harris/Walz ‘24
slitrobo on
In 2016, everything was saying HC was going to win by a landslide. Don’t trust the polls. Vote.
sync-centre on
Need to win the senate and house as well.
Bishopkilljoy on
Idfaff if Trump, Vance and all the maga cronies all suddenly combust from their insurmountable sins and are dragged to hell kicking and screaming by literal Satan.
Vote. We don’t need this shit anymore.
mackinoncougars on
Truly winning the election means winning the House, Senate and Presidency. With that, bills and agenda can ACTUALLY be passed.
We don’t want a close call. Vote to get RvW restored, Marijuana legalized, Medicare and Social Security protected and expanded… not just to avoid a dictator in a close call.
appendixgallop on
Not without a massive turnout. This should not be hers to lose, but it is.
PinkThunder138 on
No she won’t! Not if you read this, breathe a sigh of relief and get complacent! When you account for voter suppression, election interference, gerrymandering and all the other ways Republicans cheat, she’s behind. So we need to show up in absolutely undeniable numbers.
nuckle on
Hilary was polling just like this before 2016. Don’t get lazy.
wazzuprising on
This is starting to feel a lot like Sept 2016. It’s almost like this is an RNC campaign strategy now.
Kulban on
“So, no need to vote folks!”
Vote like she’s behind 80 points in the polls, regardless of what any news site says.
BotlikeBehaviour on
Polls aren’t predictive.
Purple_Daikon_7383 on
GOP bet it all on Trump and now will pay the price
30 Comments
***The Telegraph reports:***
Kamala Harris will win this year’s US presidential election, a Telegraph poll of swing states predicts for the first time.
The vice-president is winning in enough battleground states to propel her to the White House in November’s election, following weeks of gains on Donald Trump.
A survey conducted in seven swing states for The Telegraph by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found Ms Harris is projected to win the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which would allocate her 270 electoral college delegates.
The winning candidate must secure at least 270 delegates to win the election, giving Ms Harris a narrow victory over Trump, who would win 262, the poll finds.
The figures suggest Ms Harris would take the same path to the White House as Joe Biden in 2020, relying on support from the midwestern Rust Belt states
Trump is projected to win the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while the pair are tied on 47 per cent of the vote in Nevada.
The analysis of the results assumes that the 43 remaining states vote in the same way as they did in 2020.
The poll finds Trump’s support in North Carolina, a state he won in 2020, has been cut by two points since The Telegraph’s last poll before the Democratic National Convention last month.
Ms Harris is now one point behind Trump in both North Carolina and Arizona, which Mr Biden won at the last election.
The findings show that she has narrowed Trump’s lead in most swing states, following Mr Biden’s decision to step back from the presidential race on July 21.
Mr Biden has a net negative approval rating in all states polled, apart from Georgia, while Ms Harris has a positive rating in all seven states.
**Full story:** [**https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/09/03/kamala-harris-beats-donald-trump-us-election-poll/**](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/09/03/kamala-harris-beats-donald-trump-us-election-poll/)
Kind of wild result considering that the Telegraph is a very conservative readership.
just vote.
Come back tomorrow when Telegraph says the exact opposite.
The only poll that matters is November 5th, and if we ignore that one we’d better get ready for our evangelical reeducation.Â
Please, Dems. Let’s keep running scared. Remember what happened in 2016.
Kinda cool that this path they mention (PA/WI/MI) exempts Kamala from all the fuckery predicted in GA. I hope they try all their dumb ass certification crap, lose anyway, and then a bunch of them go to jail.
Good. However, polls don’t predict what the result will be in November. They give an estimate of where the race stands right now. Things can change and there are many undecided in the polls and we do not know how they will vote. Forecast models use, among others, polls to predict the probability of outcomes (Harris or Trump) in November. Some have Trump as a small favorite.
He’s going to cheat
Id honestly be surprised if Harris doesn’t win in Arizona. They’ve been trending blue, have a total albatross of the GOP Senate candidate and have abortion on the ballot.
It’s also anecdotal but my ex sister in law who is a total low info, trump demo non voter is actually excited about Harris and has registered to vote just so she can for her. If people like her are turned up for Harris generally, Trump is cooked in AZ.
We’re all complaining about landline polls and these guys are using telegraphs!
Hillary was up by same margin at this point. Foot on the gas.
Ignore the polls whether they’re favorable or unfavorable. Go VOTE!
Winning isn’t enough. It needs to be a crushing defeat. Without losing both the Senate and the House, it’s not going to send a message to republicans that MAGA isn’t a winning strategy.
The win needs to be by significant numbers so there is no room for sore loser DJT to dispute or manipulate it. Vote.
Ask Hillary if she’s heard that one before. Never count your chickens before the hatch. Trump can still win if state Republicans hijack the electoral collage…which they are now doing. Only vast street protests will win Kamala the presidency.
“Kamala Harris will win US election, Telegraph poll predicts.
How this is bad for Kamala Harris.”
On the next Telegraph Poll.
I don’t care if a time traveler comes down and shows us a video of Harris’ inauguration. Check your voter registration. Get your friends and family to do the same. And VOTE.
Fuck the polls and fuck telegraph. Get out and VOTE! Check your voter registration status often. They have proven that they will do absolutely anything to try to get ahead. Harris/Walz ‘24
In 2016, everything was saying HC was going to win by a landslide. Don’t trust the polls. Vote.
Need to win the senate and house as well.
Idfaff if Trump, Vance and all the maga cronies all suddenly combust from their insurmountable sins and are dragged to hell kicking and screaming by literal Satan.
Vote. We don’t need this shit anymore.
Truly winning the election means winning the House, Senate and Presidency. With that, bills and agenda can ACTUALLY be passed.
We don’t want a close call. Vote to get RvW restored, Marijuana legalized, Medicare and Social Security protected and expanded… not just to avoid a dictator in a close call.
Not without a massive turnout. This should not be hers to lose, but it is.
No she won’t! Not if you read this, breathe a sigh of relief and get complacent! When you account for voter suppression, election interference, gerrymandering and all the other ways Republicans cheat, she’s behind. So we need to show up in absolutely undeniable numbers.
Hilary was polling just like this before 2016. Don’t get lazy.
This is starting to feel a lot like Sept 2016. It’s almost like this is an RNC campaign strategy now.
“So, no need to vote folks!”
Vote like she’s behind 80 points in the polls, regardless of what any news site says.
Polls aren’t predictive.
GOP bet it all on Trump and now will pay the price