Do New Mexico and Arizona move together? I know Arizona is a bit more red/purple but does a 10 point lead in NM mean Arizona is moving to Harris?
ojg3221 on
New Mexico will go for Harris. Arizona is where it’s at. Thankfully Gallego has a big lead over Kari Lake. People are just tired of Lake’s whining and bitching about her losing her governors race and all the lawsuits. It’s now up the surrogates to stump and make sure to shore up support for Harris to win that state and not have split ticket votes.
DontWantToSeeYourCat on
Don’t care. The only poll that matters is on election day.
KopOut on
With Harris on the top of the ticket I’m not sure New Mexico was ever going to be a contest, and it likely wouldn’t have been with Biden either. But, it would be great to blow TrumpFK Jr. out there.
**[Vote411.org](https://www.vote411.org/)** can help you understand your specific ballot. See which groups support and oppose the candidates and measures on your specific ballot. You can even print a cheat sheet to bring with you on voting day.
**2024 NM DEMOCRATIC ELECTION OVERVIEW:**
New Mexico is a pretty reliably blue state for president with 5 Electoral votes. Incumbent Democratic Senator **[Martin Heinrich](https://ballotpedia.org/Martin_Heinrich)** is running for re-election. There is a competitive US House race in NM-2 where incumbent Democrat **[Gabriel Vasquez](https://ballotpedia.org/Gabriel_Vasquez)** is defending his seat.
New Mexico and Tucson are similar politically. Phoenix I think has a lot of conservatives formerly from the midwest and California.
autotldr on
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-mexico-2024-harris-52-trump-42/) reduced by 85%. (I’m a bot)
*****
> "Independent voters in New Mexico break for Harris, 48% to 37%. Men break for Harris by a narrow two-point margin, 48% to 46%, while women break for Harris by 17 points, 55% to 38%.".
> When asked who they trust more to handle immigration in New Mexico, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, 48% trust Harris more, and 46% trust Trump more; 6% trust neither candidate.
> A majority of New Mexico voters say they feel less safe in New Mexico than they did five years ago, while 15% feel more safe and 32% feel the same amount of safe.
+10 NM is basically what Obama ‘12 and Biden ‘20 had and seems to be consistent with a +4 or +5 D environment
ubertrader123 on
I see so many Texas license plates these days in NM. Hope they left their politics there.
BMoreBeowulf on
Seems in line with previous elections. The Trump campaign was looking at NM as a stretch goal while Biden was still in the race (along with VA and ME). Kamala took all that off the table.
ScoobiesSnacks on
Was there ever a question about NM? I thought it was a solidly blue state?
kdeff on
It would be very concerning if Democrats weren’t winning NM
Trygolds on
Polls do not decide who wins get out and **VOTE.**
Djentyman28 on
New Mexico was never in question imo. It’s been a blue state since the 2008 election
Calgarychokes on
So 42% of New Mexico is stupid!
Incendras on
Kamala NEEDS Arizona, otherwise that pretty much leaves GA and we can all assume that its not a toss up there.
Most-Artichoke6184 on
And Emerson is one of the most right-leaning pollsters out there.
thereverendpuck on
Just to ask, when was the last time NM went with a Republican? Reagan?
rucb_alum on
Does NM normally run left, right or about the same as AZ?
not2dv8 on
Go team Kamala
NeitherCook5241 on
Do we need to poll New Mexico? Its been in my blue column since before Biden bowed out
TheBestermanBro on
New Mexican here. It’s shifted hard blue since Obama, where it used to be a swing state that was a better “predictor” than Ohio (whoever NM votes for typically wins the Presidency). Harris being +10 is in line.
GlumIce852 on
New Mexico is solid D. Why poll there?
Wide_Cardiologist761 on
These non swing state polls are still important. They give a sense of the overall shift of voters.
vitium on
Don’t get complacent. Biden won there by 10%. This is not going to be a blowout. Just because we’re excited doesn’t mean they are just going to give up. Go convince someone to vote.
Well NM is maybe the solitary blue state amid a sea of mostly red states
herbhunterme on
Kamala Harris
Make pedophiles
Cry again
PotatoAppleFish on
That’s still 42% too many Trump voters. I can’t believe anyone thinks that motherfucker should even be considered for the presidency again. It was bizarre in 2016. It’s absolutely inexplicable and inexcusable now.
DramaticWesley on
For context, Biden won the state by 10.79%. So this seems about right.
Lonely_houseplant on
That is still to high for someone like trump
NocNocNoc19 on
None of these poles matter unless everyone votes. Please vote. Dont be complacent just because it seems like she has a lead.
InevitableAvalanche on
We have been blue for awhile. I have faith we will get it right again.
TheFrederalGovt on
Do people still consider New Mexico a swing state???? I’m pretty sure it’s solid blue
35 Comments
Do New Mexico and Arizona move together? I know Arizona is a bit more red/purple but does a 10 point lead in NM mean Arizona is moving to Harris?
New Mexico will go for Harris. Arizona is where it’s at. Thankfully Gallego has a big lead over Kari Lake. People are just tired of Lake’s whining and bitching about her losing her governors race and all the lawsuits. It’s now up the surrogates to stump and make sure to shore up support for Harris to win that state and not have split ticket votes.
Don’t care. The only poll that matters is on election day.
With Harris on the top of the ticket I’m not sure New Mexico was ever going to be a contest, and it likely wouldn’t have been with Biden either. But, it would be great to blow TrumpFK Jr. out there.
**ELECTION DAY IS TUESDAY, NOV 5, 2024**.
If you live in New Mexico,
**[Register to vote in NM](https://portal.sos.state.nm.us/OVR/WebPages/InstructionsStep1.aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1)**
**[Check your NM voter registration status, find your NM polling location, or request an absentee ballot](https://voterportal.servis.sos.state.nm.us/WhereToVote.aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1)**
**[Vote411.org](https://www.vote411.org/)** can help you understand your specific ballot. See which groups support and oppose the candidates and measures on your specific ballot. You can even print a cheat sheet to bring with you on voting day.
**2024 NM DEMOCRATIC ELECTION OVERVIEW:**
New Mexico is a pretty reliably blue state for president with 5 Electoral votes. Incumbent Democratic Senator **[Martin Heinrich](https://ballotpedia.org/Martin_Heinrich)** is running for re-election. There is a competitive US House race in NM-2 where incumbent Democrat **[Gabriel Vasquez](https://ballotpedia.org/Gabriel_Vasquez)** is defending his seat.
At the state level, Democrats have trifecta control (Governor, State Senate, and State House), but they need to gain just one more seat in the **[State Senate elections](https://ballotpedia.org/New_Mexico_State_Senate_elections,_2024)** to gain a supermajority in that chamber, and just two more seats in the **[State House elections}(https://ballotpedia.org/New_Mexico_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2024)** to gain a supermajority.
***[-All 2024 NM Elections](https://ballotpedia.org/New_Mexico_elections,_2024)***
***[-Find all your representatives (Federal, State, and Local)](https://www.commoncause.org/find-your-representative/)***
***[-Learn more about how our government works](https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/)***
New Mexico and Tucson are similar politically. Phoenix I think has a lot of conservatives formerly from the midwest and California.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-mexico-2024-harris-52-trump-42/) reduced by 85%. (I’m a bot)
*****
> "Independent voters in New Mexico break for Harris, 48% to 37%. Men break for Harris by a narrow two-point margin, 48% to 46%, while women break for Harris by 17 points, 55% to 38%.".
> When asked who they trust more to handle immigration in New Mexico, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, 48% trust Harris more, and 46% trust Trump more; 6% trust neither candidate.
> A majority of New Mexico voters say they feel less safe in New Mexico than they did five years ago, while 15% feel more safe and 32% feel the same amount of safe.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/1f04kxw/new_mexico_2024_harris_52_trump_42_emerson_polling/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ “Version 2.02, ~692831 tl;drs so far.”) | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr “PM’s and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.”) | *Top* *keywords*: **voter**^#1 **Harris**^#2 **Mexico**^#3 **New**^#4 **lead**^#5
Where’s the other 6%
Great dominance for Harris.
+10 NM is basically what Obama ‘12 and Biden ‘20 had and seems to be consistent with a +4 or +5 D environment
I see so many Texas license plates these days in NM. Hope they left their politics there.
Seems in line with previous elections. The Trump campaign was looking at NM as a stretch goal while Biden was still in the race (along with VA and ME). Kamala took all that off the table.
Was there ever a question about NM? I thought it was a solidly blue state?
It would be very concerning if Democrats weren’t winning NM
Polls do not decide who wins get out and **VOTE.**
New Mexico was never in question imo. It’s been a blue state since the 2008 election
So 42% of New Mexico is stupid!
Kamala NEEDS Arizona, otherwise that pretty much leaves GA and we can all assume that its not a toss up there.
And Emerson is one of the most right-leaning pollsters out there.
Just to ask, when was the last time NM went with a Republican? Reagan?
Does NM normally run left, right or about the same as AZ?
Go team Kamala
Do we need to poll New Mexico? Its been in my blue column since before Biden bowed out
New Mexican here. It’s shifted hard blue since Obama, where it used to be a swing state that was a better “predictor” than Ohio (whoever NM votes for typically wins the Presidency). Harris being +10 is in line.
New Mexico is solid D. Why poll there?
These non swing state polls are still important. They give a sense of the overall shift of voters.
Don’t get complacent. Biden won there by 10%. This is not going to be a blowout. Just because we’re excited doesn’t mean they are just going to give up. Go convince someone to vote.
Polls don’t mean anything come November.
https://www.vote.org
Well NM is maybe the solitary blue state amid a sea of mostly red states
Kamala Harris
Make pedophiles
Cry again
That’s still 42% too many Trump voters. I can’t believe anyone thinks that motherfucker should even be considered for the presidency again. It was bizarre in 2016. It’s absolutely inexplicable and inexcusable now.
For context, Biden won the state by 10.79%. So this seems about right.
That is still to high for someone like trump
None of these poles matter unless everyone votes. Please vote. Dont be complacent just because it seems like she has a lead.
We have been blue for awhile. I have faith we will get it right again.
Do people still consider New Mexico a swing state???? I’m pretty sure it’s solid blue