[SS from essay by Mohanad Hage Ali, Deputy Director for Research at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.]
Over the past few weeks, an all-out conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has begun to appear more likely. In May, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant suggested that the country might use expanded “military means” to quash Hezbollah, and according to media reports, the Israeli military has drawn up plans for a limited ground assault to enforce a buffer zone at its northern border with Lebanon. Both Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, and national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, have openly called for an invasion of Lebanon. Outside leaders and analysts tend to focus on Israel as the actor whose policies provoke or avoid war. But given Washington’s limited success in influencing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy in the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, those seeking a route to de-escalation must look more closely at Hezbollah’s calculations.
The organization faces a dilemma that limits its choices. On the one hand, it must restore its ability to deter Israel. It lost some of that capacity in the months following Hamas’s October 7 attack. Soon after the offensive, Hezbollah lobbed missiles at Israel in a restrained show of support for Hamas, and Israel responded with an assassination campaign across Lebanon, including in the organization’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Owing to Lebanon’s fragility, however, Hezbollah still wants to avoid a full-blown conflict with Israel.
sergev on
If Hezbollah doesn’t want a war with Israel, they should stop firing rockets at Israel.
I never understand these articles. The calculus is clear: if Hezbollah stops attacking Israel, then Israel will not retaliate. Hezbollah has agency in this and it is not up to Israel to show restraint. It’s up to Hezbollah (and Iran) not to be the aggressor.
complex_scrotum on
So hezbollah doesn’t want a war, that means they want to be able to shoot rockets at Israel without Israel retaliating?
KosherPigBalls on
I will never understand how shooting missiles across the border every day actually means you DON’T want war, as long it’s at Israel.
Is there any other country on Earth where that would be the case?
f12345abcde on
Russia doesn’t want war with Ukraine either. They want to attack freely
blippyj on
The International treatment here is as simple as it is stupid:
There is not a single thing any country can do (short of military action) to restrain Hezbollah, who do not care for their relations with any country besides Iran.
So Instead all pressure is applied to Israel, which does care to some extent about many things, since this is the only avenue that could ‘work’.
But the message to Hezbollah is clear: boil the frog and any potential Israeli escalation will be met with massive condemnation.
The strategy is to deteriorate Israel’s International standing, while driving the country to the brink of collapse by keeping the pressure on on all fronts.
The long term goal is to reach a point where no major power will intervene against an all-out coordinated attack by Iran and all of its proxies.
Juan20455 on
Hitler didn’t really want to start WW2. It was the fault of the allies that didn’t let him swallow Poland, Czeck Republic, Russia, France, etc, etc. He was just a peace-loving lad.
“analysts tend to focus on Israel as the actor whose policies provoke or avoid war” imagine a terrorist group in Mexico launching thousands of rockets and killing American children, and the focus is on the US, not in in terrorist group.
7 Comments
[SS from essay by Mohanad Hage Ali, Deputy Director for Research at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.]
Over the past few weeks, an all-out conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has begun to appear more likely. In May, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant suggested that the country might use expanded “military means” to quash Hezbollah, and according to media reports, the Israeli military has drawn up plans for a limited ground assault to enforce a buffer zone at its northern border with Lebanon. Both Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, and national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, have openly called for an invasion of Lebanon. Outside leaders and analysts tend to focus on Israel as the actor whose policies provoke or avoid war. But given Washington’s limited success in influencing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy in the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, those seeking a route to de-escalation must look more closely at Hezbollah’s calculations.
The organization faces a dilemma that limits its choices. On the one hand, it must restore its ability to deter Israel. It lost some of that capacity in the months following Hamas’s October 7 attack. Soon after the offensive, Hezbollah lobbed missiles at Israel in a restrained show of support for Hamas, and Israel responded with an assassination campaign across Lebanon, including in the organization’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Owing to Lebanon’s fragility, however, Hezbollah still wants to avoid a full-blown conflict with Israel.
If Hezbollah doesn’t want a war with Israel, they should stop firing rockets at Israel.
I never understand these articles. The calculus is clear: if Hezbollah stops attacking Israel, then Israel will not retaliate. Hezbollah has agency in this and it is not up to Israel to show restraint. It’s up to Hezbollah (and Iran) not to be the aggressor.
So hezbollah doesn’t want a war, that means they want to be able to shoot rockets at Israel without Israel retaliating?
I will never understand how shooting missiles across the border every day actually means you DON’T want war, as long it’s at Israel.
Is there any other country on Earth where that would be the case?
Russia doesn’t want war with Ukraine either. They want to attack freely
The International treatment here is as simple as it is stupid:
There is not a single thing any country can do (short of military action) to restrain Hezbollah, who do not care for their relations with any country besides Iran.
So Instead all pressure is applied to Israel, which does care to some extent about many things, since this is the only avenue that could ‘work’.
But the message to Hezbollah is clear: boil the frog and any potential Israeli escalation will be met with massive condemnation.
The strategy is to deteriorate Israel’s International standing, while driving the country to the brink of collapse by keeping the pressure on on all fronts.
The long term goal is to reach a point where no major power will intervene against an all-out coordinated attack by Iran and all of its proxies.
Hitler didn’t really want to start WW2. It was the fault of the allies that didn’t let him swallow Poland, Czeck Republic, Russia, France, etc, etc. He was just a peace-loving lad.
“analysts tend to focus on Israel as the actor whose policies provoke or avoid war” imagine a terrorist group in Mexico launching thousands of rockets and killing American children, and the focus is on the US, not in in terrorist group.