Key takeaways:
Between 2002 and 2022, a total of just under 330,000 young graduates aged 25-39 moved from the Internal Areas to the Centers, while just 45,000 moved abroad. In the same period, 198,000 young graduates returned to the Internal Areas from the Centers and 17,000 from abroad. It follows that the loss of human capital from the Internal Areas is equal to 132,000 young qualified resources in favor of the Centers and 28,000 in favor of foreign countries.
The differences in the level of aging between Internal Areas and Centers are even more evident when looking at the old age index, that is, the ratio between the population over sixty-five and that up to 14 years of age. The index, which for the Internal Areas and the Centers was, on 1 January 2002, equal to 133% and 131% respectively, is, on 1 January 2024, equal to 214% and 196% (200% for Italy). Therefore, if, over 20 years ago, the differences between the two Areas were rather slight, today they are more significant, due not only to the increase in the older component of the population, which characterizes the Internal Areas as much as the Centers, but to a more marked decrease in the youth component in the Internal Areas, caused both by the decline in births and by the emigration of the youngest, particularly intense in the latter.
Once again, the Peripheral and Ultraperipheral Municipalities appear to be more fragile where, as of 1 January 2024, for every 100 children under 15, there are 225 and 243 elderly people respectively.
Personal comment:
All in all, the low data on foreign emigration of young graduates means that, despite those who like to tear their clothes when it comes to Italy, the national working world is able to retain the vast majority of skills developed over the years.
This general depopulation of the internal areas is worrying, will we end up like Japan? Megalopolis on one side and rural areas infested by wolves and bears on the other?
It is worrying because the majority of Italian wealth is in bricks and mortar.
Will we end up with a generation of landed but poor Millennials?
Landowners because, being often only children and also the sole heirs of the extended family, they will own more than one property?
Poor because these properties will remain mostly unsold and we will also have to pay IMU on the second home?
https://www.italiaoggi.it/news/in-20-anni-330mila-giovani-laureati-si-sono-spostati-verso-le-citta-202407291250284804
Posted by Soncino
2 Comments
Quello di accentramento dell’attività economica in specifiche aree urbane è un fenomeno che riguarda tutto il mondo sviluppato, che ha creato problemi (trump) e continuerà a crearne (il costo degli affitti)
Da un punto di vista logistico e organizzativo l’abbandono dei paesi in funzione delle città ha assolutamente senso visto che è molto più difficili fornire un adeguato livello di servizi se hai 10 case sparse. Anche nell’ottica di ridurre le emissioni derivanti dallo spostamento questo è positivo (nei paesi il trasporto pubblico è estremamente carente ed è molto difficile che questo cambi).
Quello che prefereirei è che si evitasse di centralizzare tutto in poche gigantesche città ma si distribuisse la popolazione in tanti centri medio-grandi. Anche perché penso che sia difficile offrire servizi adeguanti anche in presenza di una densità abitativa troppo alta.