Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary, has recently decided to go on a "peace mission"[1], visiting Zelenskyy in Ukraine[2], Putin in Russia[3], Trump in the USA[4], with the goal of achieving "peace". This exercise in international diplomacy has drawn condemnation from all but one member of the EU [5].
I don't understand what Orbán thinks he can gain from these stunts. He has alienated most of the western nations who would be willing to ally with and support Hungary, support which Hungary desperately needs because of the increasingly precarious international situation.
Hungary does not have the leverage that a country like France or Germany or even Poland has, it is no great military, economic or cultural power. Hungary needs the financial and military support of the EU and of NATO, I don't understand why Hungary doesn't try the maintain these partnerships.
What reason does Hungary have to not try to mend its relations to the west?
[1]: miniszterelnok.hu/en/prime-minister-viktor-orban-to-publish-his-report-on-his-peace-mission/
[2]:miniszterelnok.hu/en/prime-minister-viktor-orban-to-have-talks-about-european-peace-in-kiev/
[3]: miniszterelnok.hu/en/prime-minister-viktor-orban-is-having-talks-about-peace-with-russian-president-in-moscow/
[4]: miniszterelnok.hu/en/prime-minister-viktor-orban-had-talks-with-former-us-president-donald-trump-about-chances-of-peace/
[5]: telex.hu/english/2024/07/11/blurring-lines-between-orbans-peace-mission-and-eu-presidency-condemned-by-all-but-one-member-state
What the hell is Orbán doing? What's his endgame?
byu/Brilliant_Simple_497 ingeopolitics
2 Comments
You are correct in saying that Hungary doesn’t have sufficient power to leverage international affairs. By leaning towards Russia in respect to the war in Ukraine causes the world to pay attention to Hungary. It seems he willing to assume the risk to Hungary’s relationship with the EU and NATO for the sake of his popularity to his domestic audience.
Orban is a populist, who is acting in accordance with the nature of populism. A populist regime’s security is dependent upon a populace that views the leader as powerful and in control. They accomplish this by promoting fear and anger towards outsiders and presenting an image above their station.
I imagine that if one were to review Hungary’s domestic news outlets and find a preponderance of stories promoting Orban’s willingness to stand up against the EU and NATO by asserting Hungary’s power in the international community. To do this, he has to lean towards Russia and the Soviet past. There’s a proportion of the populace who looks fondly on the communist era because life felt simple, secure, and stable.
Apparently Orban believes that Hungary is an essential member of the EU and NATO. Perhaps he believes that both organizations would rather avoid the disruption of ejecting Hungary and deal with the irritation. Or perhaps it’s due to wishful thinking. In any case, the risk is moot if he fails to maintain popular support domestically.
It’s a calculation based on the weakness of democracy, particularity western democracy. Since we saw the French lose algeria to a lack of will all the way through Biden’s Afghanistan debacle and the ongoing insistence by mainstream public opinion that Iraq, Libya etc was a mistake.
the argument goes that the West will not support Ukraine to the extent needed for it to win, the same way it isn’t supporting Israel. On the contrary its restraining it/both from what it needs to do to win. It does this because the western public is weak and doesn’t understand the need for war or why it ought to fight for freedom in foreign lands.
the continuation of this idea is that all thats needed to ensure victory in any given conflict is to wait until the western public get bored with said war and start voting for politicians who say lets stop funding it. Then the west will withdraw and the enemies of the west will win.
Its a simplistic formula that i’m not saying is right or wrong. I’m just saying its what they say and its the visible game plan. you judge for yourself if its effective.