Russia’s Thousand Cuts vs. Ukraine’s Foundation-Shaking: A Guide to Two Strategies

Submission statement: General Christopher Cavoli recently affirmed that despite setbacks, Ukraine's overall military strategy remains sound, a point that might surprise given the media's current bleak outlook. While Ukrainian President Zelensky hopes for negotiations to reclaim occupied territories, this optimism likely reflects Russia's worsening economic situation, exacerbated by skyrocketing military spending and rising interest rates. Conversely, Russia's aggressive territorial advances and its efforts to influence the upcoming U.S. election highlight its strategy of exploiting perceived weaknesses in Western support.

Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO's top general, said during the Aspen Security Forum that despite Ukrainian forces facing setbacks in some areas along the front, the country's overall military strategy remains sound. For many that has read the media recently this might come as a surprise as much doom and gloom have been posted lately.

The argument is that Ukraine's recent strategy, while not guaranteeing success, is a solid one that can be defended. While Cavoli argues that Ukraine is using a good defence strategy while building up its forces, it can also be argued that Ukraine might see cracks in the Russian war machine.

In a recent BBC interview, Zelensky expressed hope that occupied territories might be reclaimed through negotiations rather than force. This statement likely reflects several indicators of significant issues within the Russian economy. As a disclaimer, it's important to note that Ukraine also faces substantial challenges. However, Ukraine has the backing of the economically resource-rich Western world, while Russia largely stands alone.

THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, military spending has surged dramatically. Despite the budget passed last year forecasting a reduction in spending by 2025, such a scenario is improbable. Consequently, the demand for workers in the defence industry will keep growing.

To ensure stability, Russian authorities appear determined to use all available tools to stimulate economic growth. This strategy will continue to drive up demand for labour and increase wages. As the Russian economy overheats, the central bank will likely raise the interest rate to at least 18%, with some analysts suggesting that a rate of 24% is possible. Coupled with the ongoing sanctions, attacks on the shadow fleet, low demand for Russian bonds, and a declining sovereign fund, the time for difficult questions and answers is approaching.

Examining the impact of the ever-expanding military budget on the ground, we also observe significant cracks in infrastructure. Some regions are experiencing blackouts and utility disruptions, including sewer and water services. Notably, the iconic Crimea trams have ceased operation.

Kyiv has also noticed that, and there is ample ideas that pressing issues in Russia will be a better card than trying to get through trenched frontlines. Some sceptics will say these is phrases they have heard since the beginning, which merit recognition but the fact remains that more and more Russian economical data has been censured, such as FX Rate, oil production, airplane numbers etc.

Of course, this does not guarantee any specific outcome, but it will eventually become undeniable that Russia's economic situation is significantly worse than before the war. Against this backdrop, Kyiv has ample incentive to continue pressing Russia economical structure to gain an upper hand.

RUSSIAN 1000 CUTS

Russian tactics have shifted, with Moscow viewing Western support as Ukraine's weak link. In 2024, the political landscape has been dominated by elections, with Russia having stakes in nearly all of them. However, the outcomes have been underwhelming for Russia. The European Union elections saw only a minor shift toward pro-Russian parties, the UK replaced a pro-Ukraine party with another more pro-Ukraine party, and Emmanuel Macron effectively sidelined Marine Le Pen for the next three years in the French political scene.

However, the U.S. election in November seems to offer Russia a hope of turnaround, as Moscow is likely to exert significant efforts to support the GOP in their bid for victory. I project that Russia's strategy will remain unchanged and focused on this goal until the election concludes.

So, what is Russia's plan on the battlefield? Their strategy involves pushing forward aggressively to seize as much territory as possible. They understand that the perception of victory is crucial for persuading Western partners to push for a ceasefire deal and have seized around 8-12 small villages in the last months as they probe tired and manpower lacking Ukraine's defences

To achieve this, they are sacrificing much of their Soviet-era equipment in a manner not seen since WWII. They are trying to cut Ukraine in 1000 places until U.S. forces a ceasefire and use the momentum as the window to take advantage of Ukraine's manpower and weapon shortage is closing down for the year. How Ukraine will react to a U.S, new policy is a other question not for this analysis.

CONCLUSION

It is likely that Ukraine has engaged with its partners to pressure Russia and Putin into making some highly unpopular decisions. Currently, Russia is paying 1.6 million rubles for military contracts, with mobilization becoming a distinct possibility. Additionally, the UK and Europe are for the first time targeting Russia's shadow fleet, which could significantly impact Russian oil sales and shake the Russian foundament more.

Meanwhile, Russia appears to be leveraging its military advantage to capture as much territory as possible and is waiting for the outcome of the U.S. election before determining its next move.

Source:
https://en.thebell.io/russias-acute-labor-shortage/
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/07/04/russias-central-bank-chief-signals-interest-rate-hike-a85613
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-crimea-nuclear-blackouts/33039466.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-19/the-west-s-squeeze-on-russian-tankers-gets-tighter-oil-strategy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-18/europe-agrees-new-crackdown-on-russian-oil-tanker-shadow-fleet