Bayramov and Mirzoyan headed to Washington. What to expect?

The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia flew to the United States the day before to participate in a meeting of partner countries, which will be held in Washington as part of the anniversary 75th NATO summit. However, until recently there was no confirmation of bilateral negotiations between them or with the participation of State Department officials.

The invitation to the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia to the NATO summit was announced by US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien after his recent visit to Baku. The Armenian Foreign Ministry confirmed that Ararat Mirzoyan accepted the invitation immediately, while the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry announced Jeyhun Bayramov’s visit to Washington only on July 9, after the minister had already boarded the plane.

After his visit to Baku, James O’Brien stated at a briefing that Washington is working to organize negotiations on a peace agreement between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia within the framework of the NATO summit. As you know, after several rounds of negotiations with the participation of Secretary of State Antony Blinken a year ago, the Washington format was suspended. Although Yerevan prefers to hold negotiations in Western venues, Baku has since considered either direct negotiations or in a neutral third country more effective.

On Wednesday, July 10, the press secretary of the Armenian Foreign Ministry Ani Badalyan reported on social networks that a trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken should take place today in Washington. Let us note that the day before Badalyan assured that there was no agreement on negotiations between Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov in Washington. According to her, “…according to the agreement reached in Washington, a trilateral meeting will take place on July 10 with the participation of Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.”

Let us recall that Baku currently sees the Constitution of Armenia, which contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan, as the main obstacle to peace. The Armenian authorities are working on a new Constitution, but such work, of course, will take a lot of time.

In such an uncertain situation, is there any hope that the parties will sign a peace agreement before the end of the year? Leading expert at the Carnegie Endowment and expert on the South Caucasus, Thomas de Waal, in an interview with the Armenian service of Radio Liberty, said that “the chance is 50 to 50.” “I think there are two big questions here. Firstly, can an agreement be reached, and secondly, how sustainable will it be? I think it’s still 50-50 this year,” De Waal said.

According to the expert, Baku’s current demand, namely changing the Constitution, is a rather difficult issue for Yerevan.

“I think the other problem is that even if we talk about a peace agreement, there will be some things that won’t be in it. For example, at the moment, as far as I understand, there is nothing in the text about the communication route through Syunik to Nakhchivan, which in Azerbaijan is called the Zangezur corridor. This probably won’t be part of the agreement. So this is a very complex problem that has yet to be solved. Therefore, perhaps some kind of agreement will be reached in the near future, but the situation remains very difficult,” de Waal said.

According to de Waal, the positive thing about this situation is that neither side wants a new war.

The expert noted that Azerbaijan does not want mediators in the negotiations, and this is understandable, since mediators pursue their own interests. Therefore, the ideal way would be if the conflicting parties themselves came to a direct agreement. However, achieving peace without intermediaries also seems unrealistic. Therefore, de Waal considers the following development of events to be the best: Baku and Yerevan first conclude a framework agreement, and then work out the details with the support of third parties.

“The optimistic scenario is that some kind of agreement will be reached in the bilateral process, and then the international community will support and complete all the details, perhaps a UN Security Council resolution will also be adopted,” he concluded.

Link: https://haqqin.az/news/321702