Behind the scenes of Kusti Salmi’s departure

Kärt Anvelt, Oliver Kund and Sulev Vedler of Eesti Ekspress wrote pika loo About Estonia’s defense strategy, the need to buy ammunition and the departure of Kusti Salmi. I will point out some of the more exciting places. I will mark my summaries, comments and questions in the future in italics.

Why has this topic come up now? For two reasons: 1) "the western allies put pressure on Kiev to end the war. Donald Trump plans to cut aid to Kiev when he becomes US president." 2) "The new head of the defense forces Andrus Merilo warned ministers at a government cabinet meeting before Midsummer that if the war in Ukraine were to be frozen, Russia would only need two months to redeploy more than half of its forces. For example, along the Estonian border."

Is the sense of danger that we have been counted for years consensual? No it is not. " The Germans said it would take 5-8 years, so did the US."

How much money would be needed? "Merilo and his predecessor Martin Heremi calculations say that the actual need for money is twice as much. Together with the stocks already in stock, the required stuff costs 4.3 billion euros.

Their “shop list” is long and varied: FPV attack drones, 35mm kinetic missiles, 155mm extended-range fragmentation missiles, BONUS missiles, Mistral missiles, IRIS-T missiles, ATACMS missiles, anti-ship missiles, and so on."

When should it be paid for? Over several years. 2025 ~700 million euros, 2026 ~700 million euros, 2027 ~500 million euros, after that about 300 million euros.

How do these figures compare? Last year’s defense budget was 1.3 billion euros. It was 3.21% of GDP. If 700 million euros are added (assuming that everything is a new expense), then 2 billion euros or ~5% of GDP would be needed. This would be a few years of spending as if we were at war (in comparison, Russia’s defense budget last year was 5.9% and Israel’s was 5.3%). The Estonian state budget spent a total of 16.8 billion euros in 2023. In other words, 1.3% is almost 10% in itself. from the state budget. Here, it would be good if someone in the know could explain whether Salmi’s 1.6 billion is the amount needed in 2025, i.e. this 700 million euros is not added to 1.3, but some part of it is already planned?

Has anything changed in strategy? Yes. "In the past, the defense forces calculated how much ammunition a certain weapon needed. This spring, the goal was to determine the amount of ammunition needed to destroy the enemy.

At the same time, Estonia wants to destroy 70 percent of the enemy’s forces even before they cross the national border."

Kusti Salm thinks that the 2023 Riigikogu elections are to blame: "Things went sour after the election. From the beginning of 2023, basically nothing was done to further develop the defense,” says Salm. “None of the initiatives moved forward, the answer to everything was that the fields must be looked at equally, although Narva’s communal issues are important, etc."

How did personnel matters play a role? In many ways. First, Kusti Salm was a supporter of Veiko-Vello Palm, but Andrus Merilo was elected as the head of the defense force. "His and Salm’s busy schedule was so good that the duo was called Psalm." Herem also supported Veiko-Vello Palm.

Secondly, the article also talks about the character of Kusti Salmi himself.

"Former Minister of Defense Jüri Luik (and the current Estonian representative at the NATO headquarters) told his successor Kalle Laanet that he would not hire Salmi as chancellor.

The swan is a born diplomat who avoids confrontations.

He has a completely different blood type than Salmi, who is interested in purpose, purpose and again purpose. He does not hold back to achieve his goal. He is considered extremely ambitious."

"”Kusti thinks unconventionally. He can make people change their mind in negotiations. At the same time, he is not always interested in laws, the goal is important,” mentions one ex-colleague and recalls how years ago participants in the Ministry’s Future Leaders Program discussed the qualities of a good leader. The young official Salm already declared that it is not so much people and their feelings that are important, but the goal. “He always talks about the Pareto principle. 20 percent of people get the job done, 80 percent are junk.”"

Kalle Laanet chose Salmi and their cooperation seemed smooth: "”I had several other names in my notebook,” Laanet recalls of the chancellor election. “The verse made the worst impression.”

Laanet says that he was never disappointed with his choice.

“At the beginning of 2022, Laanet gave me and Martin Herem pretty much free rein. It was his management decision and we worked as a very good team,” admits the chancellor."

Kusti Salm is said to have implemented metrics and performance-based salaries in the ministry. (This is strange, both existed in the Ministry of Defense during the time of, for example, Chancellor Mikk Marran.)

"Of course, this created tension and grumbling.

People in the defense industry began to call the reporting period the Hunger Games, after the Hollywood thriller, because the achievement and size of the reward depended on the completion of the objectives. “Salm is a metrics maniac,” complains a senior official. “He is extremely strong in breaking down structures, but not in building an organization. Kusti is also very straightforward. If his opinion doesn’t suit you, you get the chance to leave. The personnel turnover in the ministry is so high that some even consider it a security problem. At the same time, there is a lot of positive in him, and a large part of his subordinates believe in this positive side. There are many fanatics working in the house who do not count the working hours.”

“Salm is the kind of boss who respects his boss, but enjoys his subordinates. Even if you lose it,” says another former colleague."

The article talks at length about which politicians like him and which ones don’t. But I see nothing but clashes of personalities, because there are supporters and opponents from almost every party, that is, it is not about party lines.

There are some other strange anecdotes in the article. For example: "Before becoming the chancellor, Kusti Salmi had the opportunity to become the head of the European Defense Agency, an important position in Brussels. The verse confirms this: “Ursula von der Leyeni the chief of staff called me in 2018 and said: we have a candidate for this position: you. Von der Leyen, however, became a candidate for the president of the European Commission in those same days, and then the issue was dropped. I have to admit that I didn’t deal with it any further either.”"

Knowing a little about how things work in Brussels, this whole story seems strange. I guess something got lost in translation.

What does Kusti Salm do next? Short answer: he will lead the Ministry of Defense until the end of August. Here’s a hint:

"Among businessmen, Salm’s friends include the big owner and boss of Skeleton Taavi Madiberk. In his vision too, Estonia will develop into a country with a strong defense industry.

Veiko-Vello Palm also joined Madiberk."

Was Salmi’s departure affected by the scandals surrounding RKIK’s procurements? "Kusti Salmi in the case of the decision to leave, rumors began to spread that “smelling national defense procurements” could be behind it. After all, he was the head of the Defense Investment Center before becoming chancellor, and large purchases passed through his desk even later.

Salmi was granted an indulgence by the State Audit Office, which announced on May 9 that according to a recent audit, the procurements were generally transparent.

However, when purchasing sniper rifles, it was not clear, precise and unambiguous what and how much was being procured. Although the deliveries were delayed, RKIK did not demand a liquidated damages.

In the procurement of long-range anti-tank systems, most of the money went instead to purchase disposable anti-tank weapons. The guns had to hit the tanks from a distance of at least 4 km, but some were bought that could shoot at a distance of only 2 km. The volume of the procurement was increased from 40 million to 200 million euros.

“In the long-range anti-tank procurement, we were criticized,” admits the center’s general director Magnus-Valdemar Saar. “But I don’t understand what all this has to do with Kusti Salmi.”"

Maybe someone in the know can explain this 1.6 billion. Also, we currently send a large part of the ammunition we produce directly to the Ukrainians. Does Estonia want to compete with its allies on the market in order to replenish its own reserves at the same time? Or is this purchase somehow done together with others? How much of the purchased stocks would still be sent to the Ukrainians (the so-called long-distance fire, because the same machines are already destroyed on the territory of Ukraine before coming over our border).