Managing a Managed Decline: The Future of Indian-Russian Relations

Submission Statement:

In Moscow last December, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar praised the “exceptional” nature of Indian-Russian relationship, describing it as the “one constant in world politics.” The reality, however, is that this relationship is a shell of its former self and, rather than being a constant, it is in fact undergoing a managed decline. This is demonstrated by New Delhi downgrading its interactions with Moscow on several fronts, including bilateral summits and multilateral forums, economic engagement, and defense cooperation.

Further complicating the Indian-Russian relationship is the role of third parties, namely China, the United States, and Europe. As Russia becomes increasingly beholden to China, concerns will grow in New Delhi about Moscow’s eroding neutrality in future Chinese-Indian hostilities. At the same time, if U.S. policy toward Russia were to shift under a future Trump administration, Washington might become more accommodating of New Delhi’s ties with Moscow, while Brussels, in turn, could become more critical. In short, India’s relations with Russia will remain strained, but this does not deter the possibility of fissures emerging in its relations with the United States or Europe.