The drone war is on the verge of entering a new phase

Disclaimer: This is just the thoughts of a hobby enthusiast so please do not take it too seriously and please do come wih opinions.

Submission statement: The Russian aggression against Ukraine has accelerated drone warfare technology, and I believe we are now entering a new phase. The possibilities drones can do seem to advance rapidly.

In this submission statement, I will discuss what is happening, focusing on AI drones and what lies ahead.

The Russian aggression toward Ukraine has significantly accelerated advancements in drone technology, driven by the urgent need for both reconnaissance and combat capabilities in the conflict. As conventional warfare tactics have been challenged by the modern battlefield, drones have become pivotal for both sides.

Over the course of the two-year conflict, technological advancements that were previously anticipated to require a decade for testing and implementation in military doctrine have been rapidly realized. Ukraine's early adoption and innovative use of drones have been pivotal in this acceleration. This strategic shift has also played a significant role in compensating for the shortage of artillery shells experienced by Ukraine from December until recently.

Initially, hobby drones were adapted for military use by attaching grenades and deploying them via simple mechanisms, such as opening the light shutter. Today, drones have evolved to assume capabilities traditionally managed by a wide array of other systems.

On June 18, it was claimed (not yet 100% verified although there are pictures to almost verify it) that a Ukraine FPV drone stopped Russia may be the best asset of the war, the Lancet loitering muniton. ¹

The lancet has been a pain in the ass for Ukraine, with the easy-cost UAV having hit several high-valued military pieces, but with an even cheaper FPV drone stopping it, the scale of balance has been changed. While this might be just a fluke it might also represent a new phase in drone warfare.

Drones have increasingly played a crucial role across all domains of the war—land, sea, and air. Ukraine's strategic use of drones was instrumental in winning the battle of the Black Sea. By leveraging the lack of significant targets that would justify a Russian investment in developing their sea-based drone platforms, Ukraine was able to gain a decisive advantage.

With drones flying faster, better and packing more explosives, some experts believe it's just a matter of time before we have the history first shootdown of a helicopter/plane by a drone.

Now Ukraine are aiming at getting an air advantage and chances are they are succeeding in getting first into the next gen of air drones. At a weapon show in France Ukraine showed their "Bulava" drone.²

^{AI DRONES}

I sincerely believe that the race for the next generation of drones will be dominated by those who most efficiently integrate artificial intelligence (AI). The side that achieves optimal integration of AI with drone technology will possess a decisive advantage, potentially maintaining this superiority for months until effective countermeasures are developed. This integration is poised to revolutionize warfare, enhancing the autonomy, precision, and overall effectiveness of drone operations.

Bulava might be the first test into this. Why will the tests of this drone be followed by every allied country in the world? ³

Because it can in theory (not tested yet) be a self-sufficient drone that don't need no contact with an operator, making it more difficult to jam and track. You can simply launch it and within one hour its AI system can find a target or prioritize one if more, and destroy it within a radius of 60 km. A launch-and-forget drone that can hunt independently and conclude itself on high-value targets.

Ukraine is at the forefront on this because they have Western backing from AI companies, spearheaded by AI companies like Palanthir.

Now, AI drones are nothing new, already a year ago there was hype from both the Russian and Ukrainian side about their use of them. Russia showcased Lancet-3 with an AI interface, however, it was soon turned off as it was not effective. ⁴

Ukraine initially faced challenges in integrating drones into its military strategy but is now making significant progress with the support of foreign investment and Western allies. These allies are also hastily rewriting their military doctrines to incorporate drone warfare. This collective effort is fostering rapid advancements that are almost bound to yield results sooner than later.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's minister of digital transformation and the nation's leading authority on drone technology, has indicated that AI-driven drone prototypes are expected to be deployed along the front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine before the end of the year.⁵

Drones represent the future of warfare, and Ukraine made a strategic decision by investing in production capacity at the start of the year. This investment has resulted in the annual production of over one million drones and the emergence of several startups, positioning Ukraine as potentially the world's leading drone manufacturer and expert in the field.

With the war grinding on, a breakthrough in drone warfare, either by using sophisticated AI or punishing Russia in a cost-value ratio of destroyed equipment, might represent the best chance the country has to prevail against Russia.

Reference list:

https://old.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1djl4fv/the_drone_war_is_on_the_verge_of_entering_a_new/

Tags

The drone war is on the verge of entering a new phase