IEA Slowing demand growth and surging supply put global oil markets on course for major surplus this decade

https://www.iea.org/news/slowing-demand-growth-and-surging-supply-put-global-oil-markets-on-course-for-major-surplus-this-decade

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  1. Submission statement

     

    The IEA forecasts that by 2030 the global oil demand will reach 106 million barrels per day, but supply capacity will reach 114 million barrels per day. The supply growth is primarily led by North and South America countries.

     

    > The United States alone is poised to account for 2.1 million barrels per day of non-OPEC+ gains, while Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana contribute a further 2.7 million barrels per day.

     

    This oversupply will lead to increased competition among oil producers. New non OPEC producers like Guyana will likely not agree to production limits. Additionally OPEC unity will be tested as competition increases. Some countries will leave the cartel so that they can sell without production limits. Some countries have already left the group:

     

    * Indonesia left opec in 2016.
    * Qatar left opec in 2019.
    * Ecuador left opec in 2020.
    * Angola left opec in 2024

     

    As supply outpaces demand, western countries will have more leeway to shift oil purchases away from countries like Russia. Overall this situation should be positive to all oil importing countries, and detrimental to oil producing countries.