My latest blogpost on the Gaza war – part 5.

I'm from India and blog on current conflicts (Gaza). This is part 5 of my ongoing series on the Gaza war.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-gaza-war-part-5-what-next.html

I analyze military operations and related geopolitical matters, based on open source intelligence. I try not to take sides politically, or be moralistic, but use data to make sense of what's happening and what might happen.

This post talks about the trend in IDF and Hamas casualties, recent operations in Rafah, the manpower constraint the IDF faces – which determines their plan for Gaza. There are details of the IDF units deployed and their current operations.
I look at the possibility of war with Hezbollah and how that might happen and an update on the Houthi threat.

My position, as I've posted earlier in the blog, is that IDF casualties have been reducing (as are daily civilian casualties) while Hamas's capability is being increasingly degraded. Neither Hezbollah nor the Houthis have been as much of a threat as some feared. I argue for e.g. that the Houthi ability to hit ships has been poor and not a sustainable strategy, since it might weaken Iran. I similarly suggest that Hezbollah is getting the worst of cross border firing. It has to either withdraw
and try to save face, or provoke Israel into a war the IDF probably wants.
I explain why President Biden's proposed peace deal will most likely not be workable.

Recent developments which can influence this conflict are the growth in Israel's GDP in Q1 2024 (after a fall in Q4 23) and the forthcoming Iranian Presidential election.