Been reading new book ‘World on the Brink’ by Dmitri Alperovitch about China USA grand strategy, Taiwan and idea of a new Cold War – is this overblown?
Also saw this video on YouTube interviewing Dmitri about it which was an interesting watch https://youtu.be/ac2Pd82mPbQ
https://old.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1dc135j/the_us_china_are_already_in_cold_war_ii_could/
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I hate to be the prototypical “Get off my lawn!” Gen-Xer here, but anyone who thinks we’re currently in a “Cold War II” with China doesn’t understand what the original Cold War was. We’re doing business with China, both countries easily approve visas for the other country’s nationals and we have full Diplomatic representation. That’s not a cold war, it’s hardly even a lightly chilled scuffle.
From Xi Jinping’s perspective, China’s massive military build up gives it more and more leverage to bring to the table against the U.S. if China ever wants to unify Taiwan. The Chinese have always stated that they would prefer to unify with Taiwan ‘peacefully’.
All dictatorships eventually utilize Brinksmanship in international relations , or all-in negotiating strategies designed to force concessions from the opposing side.
Whether or not China’s military is actually good enough to invade Taiwan, deter America, is experienced enough, or even if any of their equipment actually truly works isn’t necessarily important to Xi in the brinksmanship scenario. What matters is that the appearance of their military strength has to be strong enough that the U.S. has to take the threat so seriously that they back down.
So in a blockade scenario for example the situation becomes much more complex than you might initially think. America might not actually believe in the strength of China’s military or its ability to actually violently takeover Taiwan. But will America want to risk it all by calling their bluff? Even though a blockade is an act of war, if China avoids inflicting casualties in the beginning stages they might avoid looking like an out of proportion aggressor to much of the nonaligned world, similar to how Russia got away with invading Ukraine.
This is the sort of brinksmanship strategy that Xi Jinping may possibly utilize and the Chinese certainly have been practicing the blockade scenario quite a bit.
So now put yourself in America’s shoes. Do you try to run the blockade, thousands of miles away from any logistical resupply? Do you think China will actually enforce the blockade?
Put yourself in Taiwan’s shoes during this. Each day the blockade goes on, their ability to hold out becomes harder and harder and their incentive to cave to the pressure becomes greater. Other countries like Japan and SK will be watching America’s response too. And don’t forget that Russia and NK are geographically nearby as well. So it isn’t a two party negotiation, it’s more like 3 separate parties with many more other parties that could jump in at any time.
Now, let’s think about how outright dangerous this actually is. If either side miscalculates things can very easily spiral into war even if neither side initially intended to go to war. If America chooses to run the blockade, will China respond by attacking the American resupply of Taiwan? Or will America respond the way many people say they will, by blockading the Malacca Strait in retaliation?
You can quickly see how easily one miscalculation could spiral out of control and involve many different groups.