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    Possible Scenarios for the distribution of the 6-seats of Cyprus in the EP based on last night's omega Poll.
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    Possible Scenarios for the distribution of the 6-seats of Cyprus in the EP based on last night’s omega Poll.


    Omega TV published its poll for the EU Elections last night. You can see the results here

    Here are the possible scenarios for the distribution of the 6 seats:

    Scenario 1: Average Values – DISY & AKEL take two seats, ELAM & DIKO take one seat

    So if we use the average values of the parties, DISY and AKEL get one seat each for the distribution and transfer 10% and 8% respectively to the second distribution. In the second distribution ELAM, DIKO, DISY and AKEL get each a seat, in this order. This is the most likely scenario.

    Scenario 2: AKEL (or DISY) underperforms and looses a seat, 5th in order gets a seat

    So I am using AKEL in this case. If AKEL underperforms and gets it’s minimum percentage(21%) while the rest of the parties are close to their average the following happens. DISY and AKEL get one seat each for the distribution and transfer 10% and 5% respectively to the second distribution. In the second distribution. ELAM(13%), DIKO(12%) and DISY(10%) get a seat(in this order). And now the order of the rest are: Feidias(6%), Volt(5%), AKEL(5%), EDEK(4.5%), DEPA(3%), Greens(3%). This meanst the 5th in order, in this case Feidias, gets a seat(there was a confusion regarding whether indepdent candidates can participate in the second distribution. In the Parliamentary Elections independent candidates can’t participate in the second distribution but in the EU Elections they can). Since the percentage differences between the small parties are very small within the statistical error the fifth one could be VOLT or EDEK or DEPA or Greens

    Scenario 3: Both DISY and AKEL underperform and loose a seat, 5th and 6th do well and get a seat

    In this even more unlikely scenario(close to impossible), DISY and AKEL undeperform while the 5th and 6th do well(get more than their average). In this case DISY and AKEL get one seat each for the distribution and transfer 7% and 5% respectively to the second distribution. In the second distribution if Feidias and VOLT(or one of the other parties) do well and get over 7% both DISY and AKEL loose their second seat and they each elect one MEP.

    The most likely scenario is Scenario 1 of course but who knows. These are the possibilities. Since the samples for the smaller parties are very small their order isn’t really that relevant. Also have in mind that the results above were collected by interviewing Greek speaking voters.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/cyprus/comments/1d04u26/possible_scenarios_for_the_distribution_of_the/

    Posted by Bran37

    View 6 Comments

    6 Comments

    2. just_a_random_guy_11 on

      With the SCAM type of vote we have in Cyprus it makes it almost impossible for DisAkel to not have 2 seats. Why the fak do I need to give my 2nd vote to Disi if I already voted someone from Disi? SCAM.

    3. fatbunyip on

      It would be very on brand for Cyprus to have 2 uneducated morons as 1/3rd of their EU representation. 

    5. SolveTheCYproblemNOW on

      Looking at the second scenario, damn Volt got more popular than greens.  Also Fidias might get 7% wow, that will be fun. 

    6. haloumiwarrior on

      So what does that mean for all the joyful candidates that we are having here in the AMA, who has any realistic chance, and who not? And is voting for a specific candidate on the list a thing in Cyprus, can it happen that number two on the list overtakes number one? Did that ever happen?