Russia fires a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from its Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk, in northwestern Russia, on Oct. 29, 2024. (EPA/Yonhap)
Analysts with South Korean military intelligence said Wednesday that North Korea has deployed launchers capable of sending up intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at any time and has also finished preparations for a seventh nuclear test.
The latest analysis backs up recent predictions that North Korea could fire a missile or test a nuclear weapon around the US presidential election on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
The analysts also said that it was probable that some of the North Korean troops in Russia have already been sent to the front. If North Korean forces actually enter combat, the South Korean government is likely to step up its response, such as by giving Ukraine weapons aid, which would further elevate tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Officials from South Korea’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), under the Ministry of National Defense, told members of the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee in a closed-door audit on Wednesday that North Korea has “activated ICBM launchers, positioned transporter-erector-launchers in certain areas and prepared missiles, but hasn’t placed missiles on the launchers yet.”
The briefing was summarized by Lee Seong-kweun, a lawmaker with the ruling People Power Party, and by Park Sun-won, a lawmaker with the Democratic Party, both members of the Intelligence Committee.
The DIA predicted that North Korea might launch an ICBM around the US presidential election to verify its atmospheric reentry technology.
“North Korea will attempt to play up the nuclear issue before the US presidential election,” the DIA said, remarking that North Korea appears to have finished preparations for a seventh nuclear test at Tunnel No. 3 in the village of Punggye. The DIA said an ICBM test or nuclear test could take place as soon as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un makes the call.
“An ICBM launch could be held on an accelerated timetable, and a nuclear test could be held at any time because fewer preparations are required,” a senior official told reporters in a meeting at the presidential office in Yongsan, Seoul, on Wednesday.
“We’re in a serious situation where North Korean troops could join the front in Ukraine sooner than expected,” President Yoon Suk-yeol said in a phone call with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday morning.
Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communication (SPRAVDI) released footage on Oct. 18, 2024, showing what it said appeared to be North Korean soldiers receiving equipment. (still from SPRAVDI footage posted on X)
In its briefing before the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee, the DIA also responded to a CNN report claiming that some North Korean troops in Russia had already been sent to the front in Ukraine. “We don’t have any precise intelligence that North Korean troops in Russia have been assigned to the front. But it does seem probable that some North Korean advance teams have been sent there,” the DIA said.
The South Korean government is currently considering whether to take the next step, which could involve sending weapons to Ukraine, while monitoring the movements of the North Korean troops. A high-ranking official in the presidential office has said that the “decisive condition for progressive action is North Korean troops entering combat.”
The presidential office explained that directly sending 155 mm shells to Ukraine is not among the options being considered and that, if it does provide weapons, that would begin with defensive ones.
“An army ammunition policy officer from the Ministry of National Defense and other officials are currently visiting NATO headquarters. The government is pushing to provide lethal weapons,” claimed Kim Byung-joo, a lawmaker with the Democratic Party, and Kim Joon-hyung, a lawmaker with the Rebuilding Korea Party, on Wednesday.
But the presidential office rejected the two lawmakers’ assessment with the following explanation: “An officer whose work concerns ammunition is one of the working-level officials attached to an intelligence cooperation delegation we sent to NATO. That officer is there to aid the delegation’s understanding of intelligence related to the North Korean military’s ammunition. Ammunition aid is not part of this delegation’s mandate.”
Considering that the course of the war could be dramatically altered by the outcome of the US presidential election, some say that providing Ukraine with any kind of weapons, whether offensive or defensive, would be premature at this point. But the presidential office defended the validity of a progressive response.
“Regardless of who is elected to be the US next president, the war in Ukraine has undoubtedly reached the point of sending major signals about South Korea’s security. The US’ intentions are important, but South Korea’s rationale and national interest are just as important,” said a senior official from the presidential office.
The presidential office also said Wednesday that it means to send a team of analysts to Ukraine to keep track of progress in the war, noting that it’s the government’s duty to monitor the activity of North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia.
“It’s our duty to observe, analyze and monitor the North Korean military’s wartime activities against our friends in Ukraine,” said a senior official at the presidential office, suggesting that an analytical team might be dispatched to Ukraine.
The official mentioned the possibility of the analysis team also taking part in psychological warfare against North Korea.
“It would be worth deliberating with the Ukrainian government whether the monitoring activities should also cover psychological agitation and desertion by North Korean soldiers [and not just military issues],” the official said.
The official said the government’s agenda for this week includes initiating a discussion about sending a special envoy to Ukraine for responding to North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia.
By Lee Seung-jun, staff reporter; Son Hyun-soo, staff reporter; Jang Na-rye, staff reporter
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