In the shadow of the conflict between Iran and Israel, many Iranians are anxiously awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election.
In both confidential and recorded conversations, as seen most recently in a CNN report from Tehran two weeks ago, many Iranians have said they would prefer to see Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump return to the White House.
Those asked said they see him as a strong leader who would be able to tackle problems. A victory for Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, would mean a continuation of the status quo in US politics, in their view.
“Under the enormous pressure of a worsening economic crisis, many Iranians want fundamental change,” Iranian political journalist Fariba Pajooh told DW. “Quite a few of them see Donald Trump as someone who could end the political system of the Islamic Republic in Iran.”
“Trump’s statements are perceived selectively not only in the US but also in Iran,” Pajooh said. “Many Iranians believe he could topple the regime in Iran. Yet Trump repeatedly emphasizes that preventing an Iranian nuclear bomb is his top priority.”
Shadow of war
One month after Iran launched missile attacks on Israel, Israel counterattacked on October 25 and destroyed military targets in Iran, particularly missile production facilities, according to the Jerusalem Post.
The attacks were aimed at damaging Iran’s air defenses and impairing the long-term development of ballistic missiles.
“It’s impossible to predict what will happen next,” Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, told DW.
Vatanka said the US government had made it clear that it would not support any attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities shortly before the election.
“However, Israel’s counterattack was not a symbolic act,” Vatanka said. “Twenty military sites in Iran were attacked. Israel has shown Iran what military capabilities it has, which is exactly what the US wanted to see. Israel clearly communicated its message and capabilities, and hopefully Iran got the message to avoid further escalation.”
The fact that Iran portrayed Israel’s attack as small and causing limited damage could indicate that Tehran considers this round of escalation to be over, Vatanka said.
Iran’s nuclear program
As president in 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from the Pt5+1 nuclear agreement with Iran, which had been put in place at the end of 2015 after several years of international engagement. Trump said he would be able to negotiate a “better deal” than his predecessor, Barack Obama.
His policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran was ultimately unsuccessful: One year after he pulled the United States out, Iran gradually began to withdraw from its obligations under the agreement. Now, Iran is believed to be closer than ever to building a nuclear bomb.
In September, Trump told reporters that the United States must reach an agreement with Iran to stop its nuclear program. In the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, however, Trump has spoken out in favor of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
“Biden’s answer should have been: Target the nuclear facilities first and worry about the rest later,” he said at an election event in early October — directly contradicting the official line of his successor.
Israel considers Iran’s nuclear program to be an existential threat. Iran has warned that an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities would elicit a severe response.
“For a successful attack on all Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel would need the support of the US,” Sina Azodi, lecturer at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University in Washington, told DW.
Azodi said Iran’s nuclear facilities were spread over several sites, some with built-in underground bunkers, making it more difficult to destroy them completely.
“Shortly before the elections, however, the US government wants to avoid getting involved in a war,” Azodi said.
When asked whether he was in favor of a system change in Iran, Trump told the Iranian-American podcaster Patrick Bet David on October 17: “We can’t totally interfere. Let’s face it, we can’t even govern ourselves.”
“I would like to see Iran be very successful,” Trump said. “The only problem is that they can’t have nuclear weapons.”
Middle East peace?
What will happen after the US presidential election remains to be seen. “If Kamala Harris wins the election, her government will probably try to reach temporary agreements with Iran,” Azodi said.
In the past, Harris defended the nuclear agreement with Iran and considered it a significant achievement of the Obama presidency.
In her role as vice president, she has supported efforts to revive the agreement over the past four years. However, these attempts have been unsuccessful.
“If Donald Trump wins the election, he can achieve fundamental changes in US-Iranian relations,” Azodi said.
“He has the potential to unite all Iran critics in the Republican Party behind him to bring about a different agreement with Iran,” he added.
In an interview last week with Saudi state-owned broadcaster Al Arabiya, Trump said that if elected, he would include Iran in the Abraham Accords, along with at least a dozen other countries.
“The Abraham Accords were concluded during my presidency,” he said. “Nobody thought that was possible.”
The agreements signed at the White House in September 2020 normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain — and later, Morocco.
Trump told Al Arabiya that peace in the Middle East would be possible under his leadership. The extension of the agreement would entail a major realignment in which Iran, the biggest regional opponent of Israel and the United States, would become an ally.
He offered no details on how he intends to accomplish this grand bargain, and the regime in Iran, facing discontent at home and the possibility of an escalating conflict with Israel, has made no sign they are willing to make a deal.
This article has been translated from German