(Montel) Small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) could be up to 78% costlier than conventional nuclear in Italy, as the country aimed at reviving its nuclear sector in the next decade, consultancy Afry said on Tuesday.
By the end of the current decade, the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) – which indicates the cost of electricity generation required to make plants profitable –would amount to EUR 114/MWh for Italian SMRs, compared to EUR 64/MWh for conventional nuclear generation, said Antonio Michelon, head of Afry Italy, during Montel’s Italian Energy Day in Milan.
As a comparison, solar LCOE in Italy would reach EUR 39/MWh and that of onshore wind could be pegged at EUR 55/MWh by 2030, the analyst added.
By 2035, Italy could aim to build more advanced SMRs at one site and reduce the LCOE to EUR 81/MWh, applying insights gained from initial pilot plants, he added.
“Building multiple units on a single site will lower costs,” Michelon said, noting that operational and capital savings could progressively reduce the LCOE down to EUR 54/MWh over time.
Italy currently has no nuclear production, but the government aims to restart this technology, projecting it could cover 11% to 22% of domestic demand by 2050. Italy phased out nuclear power following a 1987 referendum.
Growing demand
By 2035, Italy could have 400 MW of SMRs, increasing to 3.5 GW by 2045 and potentially 8 GW by 2050, according to Afry’s timeline for a possible nuclear comeback in Italy.
Italy’s growing demand for electrification, driven by more electric vehicles and increased electrification of heating systems, could be partially met by SMRs, Michelon said.
Nuclear power could help Italy bridge a supply gap between the north, which consumes about 60% of the energy, and the south, where most intermittent green energy is produced, he noted.
SMRs could “be installed directly in the northern market area, close to demand,” reducing the need for grid upgrades and decarbonising the dispatchable portion of Italy’s energy mix, currently dominated by gas-fired power plants, Michelon added.
Regulatory uncertainties
However, Italy’s nuclear plans could be compromised by any change in government, currently held by a pro-nuclear prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, Michelon said.
The country faced several regulatory uncertainties, including the need for new legislation and an independent body to ensure safety standards and manage nuclear energy issues, said Piero Vigano, a lawyer at Advant Nctm, during the same event.
Italy’s energy minister, Gilberto Pichetto, said recently the legal framework for nuclear energy will be defined by Q1 2025.
Yet, chances of seeing these new rules passed in the current legislative term, ending in 2027, were “zero per cent”, Vigano said.
But even if a new nuclear legislation were introduced, it is likely that Italian citizens would call for a referendum to block it, as they did in 1987 and 2011, Vigano added.
To finance new nuclear projects, Italy could use state guarantees, incentives, or public-private partnerships, which could serve as “practical tools to secure government support”, Vigano said.