Moscow could also suffer a financial hit after an S-300 Russian-made air-defence system was destroyed in the Israeli attack, damaging the reputation of Russia’s arms industry.
“The spectacle of Russian systems failing will, in tandem with events in Ukraine, do their arms industry’s reputation no good, with potential financial ramifications,” Dr Kaushal said.
Israel also attacked Iranian drone factories, but Dr Kaushal said the effects of this on Russia would be limited as it is able to produce the Iran-designed Shahed-136 drone itself.
“Since Russia is now producing the Shahed-136 at scale, I doubt there will be a massive impact on operations.”
Since acquiring the Shahed from Iran in 2022, Russia is estimated to have launched more than 8,000 of the drones at targets in Ukraine.
Russia could also attempt to gain “leverage” over Iran by providing it with drones or replacement missile fuels for a potential strike on Israel.
“As its treaty with North Korea shows, Russia no longer worries about being seen as a proliferator of export-controlled goods so it might see its leverage in the Russo-Iranian relationship grow as a consequence of Iran’s travails,” Dr Kaushal said.