Political parties will have to pay much more attention to socioeconomic policies as time goes on, among other things, because of the altered security situation and Estonia’s status as a frontline country, Tõnis Saarts finds in Vikerraadio’s daily commentary.
Mounting geopolitical tension between the East and West is turning Estonia into a frontline state in the new cold war. In other words, we have moved closer to a scenario envisioned by social scientists in the late 1990s, dubbed the “military information oasis.”
This particular vision for the future prescribed Estonia catching up to its Western peers in terms of technological development (hence the term “information oasis”), while it would all happen in the conditions of growing geopolitical confrontation. This turns Estonia into a kind of military outpost for the West in its attempts to deter and ward off threats from the East.
Even though Estonia is seeing its fair share of defense investments and developing a high-tech military industrial complex, overall, the scenario prescribes modest economic growth, as the threat of war discourages investment in other fields.
What is more, a military information oasis is rather a society of a small circle of winners, mostly those associated, either directly or indirectly, with the defense sector and catering to its needs. Meanwhile, the rest of society has little choice but to tighten its belt and work to cover mounting defense spending, as there simply is no alternative.
Rather than just one possible vision for the future, we seem to be living inside such a military information oasis as we speak.
The status of a frontline state poses three fundamental challenges for Estonia’s near future.
Firstly and existentially, Estonia needs to ensure national security, meaning increased defense spending, broad-based national defense, efforts to develop the defense industry etc.
Secondly, and despite unfavorable conditions, the Estonian economy needs to be given a growth outlook, so we can keep climbing higher in international value chains. We know that a poor country is a vulnerable one.
Thirdly, all of the above will necessitate paying attention to social cohesion, as the topic of social justice will keep rising to the surface in the military information oasis, in terms of who should bear the brunt of covering the defense spending.
So far, our parties and politicians have been preoccupied with solving just one-third of the equation. Decisive steps have been taken in defense policy, while economic growth and social justice have been largely overlooked. The government’s solutions regarding the latter two have been basic, with the lower middle-class saddled with paying for most of increased defense spending and no coherent plan for kickstarting economic growth on the horizon.
Elections have been won in Estonia by betting mostly on the national security or culture wars cards. That is why parties have neglected their economic policy programs, as proposing coherent and carefully considered solutions has not paid dividends at elections. But barring any dramatic developments, it will be impossible to enter the fray without a serious economic, tax and social program by the time of the next elections [in 2027].
Therefore, parties – on the right and left – must in all seriousness tackle what are called socioeconomic policies.
The economically liberal parties must realize that continued betting on the “market sorting itself out” will amount to building a fragile and vulnerable society in the conditions of mounting social stratification and tensions, while the left would do well to understand that as long as they lack a credible plan for generating growth, and the public sees them as redistributors rather than creators of wealth, they’ll have little business in the corridors of power.
In our search for ideas and a bigger picture, we should look to other similar frontline states, or military information oases, like Israel, South Korea and Taiwan. They all have unusually high defense budgets for democracies. All have successfully broken out of the middle income trap and are technological frontrunners, whereas the latter achievement owes less to absolute market freedom and more to smart national industrial policies. All (except Israel) have also managed to keep social stratification within tolerable limits.
And yet, we do not need another Israel or Taiwan by the Baltic Sea and should instead, based on our geographical location, find a specific model to suit Estonia. It is not enough to draft technocratic solutions, as we also need a narrative for how the Estonia of the future will function as a wealthy and sustainable military information oasis. So far, political parties have not concentrated on creating such a narrative. It’s time to get to work, ladies and gentlemen! Seriously!
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