Rüdiger Frank, professor of East Asian economy and society at the University of Vienna.
With evidence pointing to North Korea sending troops to fight in Ukraine, there’s growing concern in Europe that the development could fuel arguments for European nations to deploy their own troops in support of Ukraine. Rüdiger Frank, a professor of East Asian economy and society at the University of Vienna, said that if worse comes to worst, the war in Ukraine could turn from a bilateral conflict to a multilateral one, expressing concern that if NATO sends troops to help fight Russia, “this would be World War III.”
Frank once studied at Kim Il Sung University in North Korea, and is an expert with over 30 years of experience researching North Korea. The following is a written interview the Hankyoreh conducted with Frank on Thursday.
Hankyoreh: What do you think North Korea and Russia aim to achieve by deploying North Korean troops to Russia?
Frank: Both sides can expect political gains. Russia can show the world, and its own population, that it is not alone. North Korea will gain international and domestic prestige by helping a former superpower. From a more practical viewpoint, obtaining thousands of well-trained and equipped soldiers will be a welcome support for Russia’s war efforts. This applies if North Korean troops will indeed be sent to Ukraine, but also if they will only take over military tasks elsewhere in Russia and thereby substitute regular Russian troops that can then be sent to Ukraine.
The practical gains for North Korea can be manifold. If we look back at the experience of South Korea’s troop deployment to Vietnam under Park Chung-hee, many direct and indirect economic gains come to mind. This included direct payments by the US to Seoul, salaries paid to the soldiers, and preferential treatment of chaebol [business conglomerates] for war-related supply and logistics contracts. It is possible that Russia offers similar advantages to North Korea. In addition to money, oil, or market access, the most concerning aspect of this could be a transfer of advanced military technology to Pyongyang.
Hankyoreh: What do you think is the primary intention behind North Korea’s decision to deploy troops to Russia? How do you view the assessment that North Korea is prioritizing its relationship with Russia over its relationship with China?
Frank: I do not think that North Korea prioritizes its relationship with Russia over its relationship with China. Such an interpretation is wishful thinking on our side, or maybe it is part of our psychological warfare. As we know from the past, North Korea is only loyal to itself. Foreigners are sometimes useful, but in general, they are all — without exception — seen as threats and potential enemies. Both China and Russia have many times “disappointed” Pyongyang. Warm words and nice photos should not obstruct our view of the fact that the relationship between North Korea and its two big neighbors is very pragmatic, not emotional.
Hankyoreh: After North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia, some voices are calling for NATO to also send troops to Ukraine. Do you think this could realistically happen?
Frank: This is what worries me the most. It is clear that if North Korea indeed officially enters the war by sending regular troops in large numbers to the battlefield in Ukraine, then the war will turn from a bilateral conflict into a multilateral conflict, triggering various responses and commitments. This includes NATO members sending their own troops to Ukraine. This situation will quickly get out of control. The beginning of World War I is very instructive in that sense. In the end, if NATO sends troops to fight against Russia, this will be World War III.
My only hope is that [Russian President] Mr. Putin understands this danger very well. He cannot be interested in direct NATO involvement. Therefore, even though North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, it is not yet clear if they will really appear on the battlefield in Ukraine. The consequences for everyone would be too disastrous. The exception is Ukraine, which so far is fighting alone against a much stronger enemy, and has a strong interest in a much stronger involvement of NATO. When national survival is at stake, global consequences are of secondary importance.
Hankyoreh: In South Korea, there is even talk of providing offensive weapons support to Ukraine. What actions can South Korea take in the current situation?
Frank: That depends on what the interests of South Korea are. South Korea is very diverse. For South Korea’s military economy, North Korean support for Russia is an excellent excuse for selling more military goods. Some politicians in South Korea are worried about a loss of US interest, and perhaps even a US troop withdrawal from Korea. This is especially the case if Donald Trump wins the election. The escalation of tensions with North Korea, and the active involvement of North Korea in the war in Ukraine, is in the interest of those in South Korea who want the US to be strongly committed to their presence on the Korean Peninsula. In domestic politics, some political forces in South Korea will gain from stronger tensions with North Korea. Others in South Korea remember how the great powers have often used Korea as a place to fight their conflicts away from their own territories. These Koreans are worried about the outbreak of a second Korean War, and have an interest in avoiding a further escalation. So, depending on whose perspective we take, both escalation and de-escalation are possible options.
Hankyoreh: What efforts can the international community make to prevent the situation from worsening?
Frank: Most importantly, the international community must do everything to avoid World War III. This includes acting carefully, and only based on hard facts, not rumors. As the example of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has shown, it can often be very difficult to know the truth quickly. Right now, it looks as if some countries are pushing strongly for a reaction to expectations and possibilities, not to actual actions. Such behavior can result in a “self-fulfilling prophecy.” So, the most important task for the international community is to remain calm and avoid any rash actions.
Hankyoreh: In the long term, how do you think North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia will affect the security of Europe and the Korean Peninsula?
Frank: As long as North Korean troops do not fight in Ukraine officially, the situation can remain under control. Maybe they will never go to Ukraine, or they will appear there as “volunteers.” We have to wait and see. But there are historical examples: As you know, during the Korean War, the US and China were de facto fighting against each other in Korea, but they nevertheless found a way to avoid an uncontrollable conflict. China sent its troops as “People’s Volunteers,” and the US fought under the UN flag. When Gen. MacArthur wanted to go too far and use nuclear weapons, he was replaced. The situation was highly traumatic and very painful for Korea and the Koreans, but an even bigger catastrophe could nevertheless be avoided. We can only hope that similar wisdom will prevail in the current situation. Most importantly, the war must end quickly to stop the killing of all the young soldiers and innocent civilians. The longer the war lasts, the more suffering it will create.
By Jang Ye-ji, Berlin correspondent
Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]