The Western Balkans are hotly contested. Regional instability, internal challenges and activities of adversaries could draw Washington’s attention.
U.S. President Joe Biden (left), Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and then NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the alliance’s 75th anniversary summit on July 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C. Despite facing domestic protests calling for a caretaker government, Tirana has a steady foreign policy and is a staunch NATO ally in a turbulent region. © Getty Images
- Stability in the Western Balkans remains a key U.S. strategic concern
- Albania’s political continuity is threatened by corruption and emigration
- Future U.S. engagement may shift if Albania’s strife increases
Relations between the United States and Albania, both NATO members, rank low on Washington’s lists of concerns. Regardless of whether the next administration is Republican or Democratic, the preference will be to keep it that way. Yet, it may become increasingly difficult for Washington to remain indifferent to the domestic situation in Albania, especially given its contentious position along a critical alliance border.
The Western Balkans are viewed as a potentially unstable region within the transatlantic community. While Albania is seen as an anchor of foreign policy stability, developments within the country can have regional repercussions. As such, a reset in U.S.-Albanian relations seems unlikely, but factors including corruption, crime and recent protests could prompt Washington to reevaluate the relationship.
NATO’s strategic interests
Albania is a small but, as a NATO member, strategically relevant country to the U.S. The nation has committed to reaching the alliance’s defense spending minimum of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 – a target that future U.S. administrations, whether Republican or Democratic, are likely to emphasize. Albania has shown strong support for Ukraine, condemned Russian aggression and maintains friendly relations with Israel, all positions that align well with U.S. policy interests. Tirana has also supported Washington during Albania’s recent tenure on the United Nations Security Council (2022-2023).
Strategically, Albania’s relevance lies in its perceived role in ensuring the stability of the Western Balkans. As Beijing seeks to challenge Western dominance in the first and second Pacific Island chains while isolating U.S. allies, it is becoming increasingly clear that the U.S. will need to bolster security assets in the Indo-Pacific, stretching its resources thin and keeping its attention away from the Balkans.
Greater attention to Asia is unlikely to come from a direct pivot but rather as a side effect of ensuring stability in other key regions, particularly Europe and the Middle East. Yet, aside from the ongoing war in Ukraine and conflicts instigated by Iran in the Middle East, NATO’s eastern flank faces significant vulnerabilities, with the Western Balkans being a primary concern.
Albania has shown strong support for Ukraine, condemned Russian aggression and maintains friendly relations with Israel.
The U.S. aims to minimize disruptive influences from China and Russia in the region, thereby securing a defendable eastern front for NATO. The last thing the U.S. wants is for the Western Balkans to become a flashpoint that external powers or regional actors could exploit, leading to chaos behind NATO’s frontier. This concern has persisted through many U.S. administrations since the presidency of Bill Clinton (1993-2001).
Yet the situation in the Western Balkans remains precarious, with unresolved tensions from the conflicts and genocide from 1991-1999 still lingering. Most of the region lies outside the stabilizing sphere of NATO and the European Union, with Croatia being the only country that is a member of both. Although Albania has been a formal EU candidate since 2014, its prospects for joining anytime soon appear dim.
Similarly, North Macedonia and Montenegro are NATO members but not part of the EU. In contrast, Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina remain outside both NATO and the EU, making them prime targets of Russian and Chinese influence campaigns that are likely to persist.
Albania as an anchor
Tirana has generally maintained positive relations with neighboring capitals and seeks to be perceived as a gateway to the Balkans. Albania is broadly viewed by others as reliable, despite its problems with organized crime. Encouragingly, the nation of less than 3 million has recorded steady post-Covid economic growth in the 3-4 percent range, alongside moderate inflation and rising wages.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog (left) visiting Albanian President Bajram Begaj in Tirana, Albania, on Sep. 12, 2024. Albania’s support of Israel keeps the Western Balkan country in good standing with the U.S. © Getty Images
In February 2024, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Tirana. At a news conference with Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, Mr. Blinken declared:
We can’t have a repeat of what we saw and what too many people experienced in the 1990s, which is why we’re committed to supporting all of the efforts to advance the integration of countries in the Western Balkans with each other and with Europe.
He singled out Albania as playing a constructive role. Officially, the U.S. views the country as politically stable and pro-American.
Red flags and Balkan conundrums
Yet there are two significant causes of concern – both well-known within and outside the country. Despite rising GDP, Albania has lost about a third of its population. While the birth rate is declining there as it is elsewhere in Europe and globally, the main cause of Albania’s population decline is youth emigration. This exodus raises the question: What then accounts for the strong economic growth?
The country’s tourism sector has been expanding significantly, with over 10 million tourists registered in 2023. However, transnational criminal activity, including drug trafficking, smuggling, cybercrime and money laundering, remains a prominent challenge. The Global Organized Crime Index reports that “Albania is a source, transit and destination country for human trafficking.” Moreover, Albanian criminal organizations have extended their reach globally, notably in Ecuador, since the 1990s.
Crime-related wealth distorts the economy and fuels corruption. In 2023, Albania scored only 37 out of 100 points on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, ranking 98th among the 180 countries assessed, on par with Belarus. In contrast, Denmark, Albania’s NATO peer that is also an EU member, was viewed as the least corrupt country, with a score of 90 points. This corruption is also reflected in Albania’s low score on the Index of Economic Freedom, which decreased by half a point from the previous year despite solid GDP growth.
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Concerns about governance in Albania are growing as the center-left government undermines political opposition. Judicial reform, initiated around 2014 with support from the EU and the U.S. as part of Albania’s EU candidacy, is a key tool exploited by the ruling Socialist Party, which has been in power since 2013. Critics argue that these reforms actually threaten judicial independence and facilitate the ruling party’s consolidation of power, enabling it to dismantle the opposition and advance political and economic hegemony.
The Socialists’ consolidation of power coincided with weak leadership by the country’s Democratic Party, a center-right conservative organization that was the governing party from 2005 to 2013. It has remained in opposition for over a decade, in part due to its poor decisions such as boycotting elections in 2019 and political infighting that has exacerbated weakness and alienated voters. The lack of an effective opposition in Albania has contributed to poor governance and the endemic corruption.
The decline in the youth population reflects dissatisfaction with the levels of economic opportunity and political freedom in Albania. If these conditions persist, with the lack of credible political opposition and widespread criminal activity, the potential for instability in the country is ever-present. That could turn the perception of Albania from an anchor of stability to a country of concern.
Scenarios
There are several issues to watch that could disrupt U.S.-Albanian relations – no matter the outcome of the U.S. election next month. For instance, various groups from adversarial countries, or even the U.S. or Europe, could seek to shape Albania in their image.
Possible: Opposition raises its voice, instability increases
There is a burgeoning challenge to the rule of law status quo in Albania. The government’s Atlantic partners may find it increasingly difficult to overlook this situation. As journalist Walter Mayr asked in Der Spiegel, “Are Europe’s heads of government courting the wrong person?” – a reference to Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, who faces multiple corruption allegations. The author questioned whether European leaders can continue to ignore the rising charges of authoritarianism and persistent concerns about criminality in Albania.
This autumn, the opposition staged rallies, protested in parliament and called for a caretaker government to rule until elections next year. The stability of the current government is at risk, and Albania’s foreign policy may be revisited if a leadership shakeup occurs.
Possible: Current government maintains power by placating opposition
The current government has effectively navigated domestic issues and foreign policy. In light of calls for a caretaker government, there is the potential to create space for a legitimate opposition, fostering new economic and political freedoms that could provide alternatives for growth and political stability. However, the opposition would still need to present a credible alternative platform to compel the Socialists to adopt a more inclusive agenda.
Most likely: Current government maintains status quo for foreign partners
The most likely scenario is that the Albanian government stays the course, allowing either a Republican or Democrat in the White House to count on Albania as a U.S. partner. This outcome is not guaranteed, especially if renewed turmoil arises in the Balkans or if a crippling scandal involving the current regime undermines its image as a stabilizing force in the Balkans.
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