Several key elections have taken place or will take place in 2024, and the stakes are all the higher as we witness the rise of the populist right. The European elections in June showed just how widely supported the far right is. In France, the results prompted Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale and call early legislative elections, in which the Rassemblement National won 125 MPs. In Austria, the Freedom Party recorded a historic victory on September 29, coming out on top in the general election.
Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni, following the inexorable rise of her party Fratelli d’Italia, is now considered a kingmaker in the European Parliament. In Germany, the electoral growth of Alternative for Germany is eroding the authority of the governing coalition led by the Parti Socialiste. And all this precedes the possible return of Donald Trump to the helm of the US, currently neck-and-neck with Kamala Harris in the polls ahead of the November 5 presidential election.
The electoral success of these parties is one thing but keeping them in power is quite another. However, in Hungary, with Prime Minister Viktor Orban, today’s populists have a concrete example of how they can establish their long-term influence.
Orban has been Hungary’s prime minister, with a constitutional majority, for 14 years. He therefore has all the levers at his disposal to reshape the country. And his tenure at the top of the political system speaks volumes about how vulnerable democratic institutions can become to populist strategies.
Growing appeal
To be successful, a populist must possess certain essential characteristics: charisma and a simplistic discourse combining national pride and defense of the country against alleged external threats. But he must also have the know-how to build the political infrastructure on which to truly take control of his country.
Few populists have all these assets. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of Poland’s Law and Justice party in power from 2015 to 2023, was able to exert a very broad influence on the state but lacked sufficient charisma to keep his party in power indefinitely.
Leaders like Trump have this quality but struggle to organize and build the institutional power needed to stay in power. Orban does, however, inspire the American right. Senator J. D. Vance, the former president’s running mate, recently declared that the US “could learn a lot” from Hungary. As for Trump himself, he said, “There’s no one better, smarter or better leader than Viktor Orban. He’s fantastic.”
You have 54.76% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.