The frequent changes in government have created a sense of political fatigue among Bulgarians. “I don’t think they will form a government,” remarked Marin Kushev, a 69-year-old resident of Sofia who cast his vote with little expectation of a breakthrough. His sentiment echoes a widespread belief that the elections will yield another fragmented parliament and prolong the difficulty of forming a stable coalition.
Despite a desire for lasting governance, recent surveys show that a majority of voters lack confidence in the political system. Raina Stancheva, a 53-year-old manager living in England who returned to Bulgaria to vote, expressed her scepticism. “I want a stable government so that I can come back. I don’t think it is possible at this stage,” she said. This feeling of resignation has permeated the electorate, and the expectation of stability has become increasingly remote with each new election cycle.
Voting Results and Party Positions
As polls close at 8 p.m. local time (1800 GMT), exit polls will offer the first glimpse of how parties have fared, with initial results anticipated around midnight (2200 GMT). Early polling by Gallup International Balkans, conducted on Friday, suggests that GERB is leading with 26.1% of the vote. The party is expected to face strong challenges from the reformist party We Continue the Change (PP), which polled at 16.2%, and the nationalist Revival party, polling at 14.9%. Revival’s pro-Russian stance has gained traction amid Bulgaria’s political uncertainty, pointing to a potential rise in nationalist and populist sentiment if mainstream parties fail to achieve stability.
Turnout, projected at a modest 31.1%, underlines the widespread apathy among Bulgarians who see little prospect of meaningful change. “I have 40 years of working experience, and I am getting 700 leva ($400) per month as a pensioner,” said Iordanka Metodieva, a 73-year-old pensioner who also voted in Sofia. “Life is hard.” Many voters, like Metodieva, are struggling with low pensions, economic stagnation, and a general sense that government policy has failed to address their needs.
Economic Repercussions of Political Deadlock
Bulgaria’s drawn-out political crisis has had a direct impact on its economic growth. The lack of stable government has hindered the country’s ability to access and effectively deploy EU funds needed for infrastructure and other essential improvements. Furthermore, the political paralysis has delayed Bulgaria’s eurozone accession, originally scheduled for earlier but now pushed to January 2025 due to unmet inflation targets. The nation requires a period of steady governance to meet these targets and to benefit fully from EU membership.
Political risk consultancy Teneo highlighted the risks of this instability, noting that “a fragmented parliament and long-standing political rivalries will complicate the formation of a functional and stable government.” If the deadlock persists, analysts caution that it could foster greater disillusionment among voters, potentially driving support towards nationalist, populist, and pro-Russian parties.
The current election was necessitated by an inability among Bulgarian parties to form a coalition following an inconclusive election held on June 9, marking the latest instance of Bulgaria’s fractured political landscape. Given the historical challenges in coalition-building, there are concerns that another protracted period of negotiations may lie ahead.
Increasing Nationalist and Pro-Russian Influence
The country’s instability has provided fertile ground for nationalist and pro-Russian parties, which have been gaining traction as discontent with mainstream parties grows. Revival, with its pro-Russian policies, has become a notable presence in Bulgaria’s political scene, catering to voters who feel left behind by the EU-oriented agenda of other parties. Should mainstream parties fail to resolve the impasse, the appeal of parties like Revival is likely to increase, raising questions about Bulgaria’s future alignment within the EU and NATO.
Such political shifts could impact Bulgaria’s strategic alliances and policy directions, especially given its current reliance on EU funds and the benefits of closer economic ties within the bloc. However, voter frustration with the establishment leaves the door open for populist movements that could introduce more uncertainty.
Read also: