The streets of Tbilisi echoed with despair on Sunday as preliminary results pointed to a decisive lead for the ruling Georgian Dream party in Saturday’s election.
With 99% of the precincts reporting, Georgian Dream had secured 54.2% of the vote, reinforcing its grip on a nation polarized over its political future. Most of the leaders of the opposition parties say the vote, seen as a referendum on Georgia’s path toward deeper Western alignment or closer ties with Russia, was rigged.
Judging by the preliminary results, the opposition struggled to mount a strong challenge. Initial counts show the Coalition for Changes at 10.8%, Unity-National Movement at 10%, Strong Georgia at 8.7%, and Giorgi Gakharia’s For Georgia party at 7.7%.
As exit polls were announced, both the ruling party and opposition initially declared victory, though the official results quickly favored Georgian Dream securing its fourth term with more votes than it received in the last election.
“Such cases are rare worldwide, where the same party achieves such success under challenging circumstances,” Bidzina Ivanishvili said, shortly after the first exit polls were announced. The oligarch is seen as Georgian Dream’s true leader.
Soon after, Hungary’s Victor Orban congratulated the Georgian Dream, and Margarita Simonian, editor-in-chief of the Russian state-controlled broadcaster RT, wrote on Telegram: “Georgians won, well done.”
“This is election theft, a constitutional coup, and Georgian Dream will answer for it according to Georgian law,” said Nika Gvaramia, one of the leaders of the Coalition for Changes. He said his coalition had uncovered a “technological scheme” used to manipulate the election results.
“We promised to protect your votes, and I apologize for not identifying this complex scheme earlier,” Gvaramia said.
Elene Khoshtaria, another member of the Coalition for Changes and leader of the Droa party, echoed Gvaramia.
“We are firm and principled in our stance that this election was stolen, and we won’t accept it. We are moving to continuous protest, organized and coordinated, starting tomorrow. The protest will be in the streets, and we will announce the time and place,” she said.
Elene Khoshtaria, chair of United National Movement, center, speaks to the media at the coalition’s headquarters after the parliamentary election in Tbilisi, Georgia, Oct. 27, 2024.
Unity-National Movement also sees the elections as stolen.
“Oligarch Ivanishvili stole the victory from the Georgian people and thereby stole the European future. On behalf of the Unity-National Movement, we declare that we do not accept the results of the elections,” Tina Bokuchava, party leader, said.
Some of the independent observers also criticized the reported outcome.
“Based on analysis of the pre-election environment, widespread manipulation on election day, and unprecedented pressure on voters, we believe that the preliminary results released by the CEC do not reflect the true will of Georgian citizens. We will continue to demand the annulment of these results,” said Londa Toloraia of the NGO coalition “My Voice.”
Many of the analysts in the country cite fraud as the source of the ruling party’s success.
Other observers also argue that Georgian Dream’s success stemmed not only from its strengths but also from the opposition’s weaknesses. Because of internal conflicts, a lack of coherent policies, and shifting political allegiances, opposition parties failed to offer a compelling alternative to the ruling party.
“I voted for a change … by a process of elimination,” a 20-year-old first-time voter told VOA on the condition of anonymity. It was a sentiment many echoed.
“The opposition appears bankrupt, having relied on the hope that a) Georgian Dream would collapse on its own, or b) the West would ultimately bring down Ivanishvili’s regime. Consequently, they failed to conduct a genuine campaign, with even fewer events than in previous elections,” said Levan Ramishvili, associated professor of political philosophy and international relations at Tbilisi-based Free University.
“Adding to this is the West’s lack of moral clarity, characterized by hesitation, ambiguity, and a ‘leading from behind’ approach — granting EU candidate status one moment, suspending it the next; imposing sanctions, but only on marginal figures,” he said.
Leading up to the election, the United States and European Union voiced concerns, citing a perceived drift from democratic principles and closer ties to Russia.
“The picture is very clear now — despite pressure, intimidation, violence and vote-buying, they lost the capital and Rustavi and lost by catastrophic landslide abroad. But in regions where there were less oversight and people are more vulnerable and dependent on the state won with Kadyrov-style numbers of 80-90%. [The] international community cannot possibly agree that this is fair and square. Legitimizing this would mean granting major geopolitical victory to Russia,” said Giorgi Kandelaki, project manager at the Soviet Past Research Laboratory.
Analysts and opposition figures warned that Ivanishvili is guiding the country toward Russia, tightening control over the media and independent institutions.
Earlier this year, the government passed a controversial “foreign agent” law, modeled on Russian legislation. It targets NGOs and media outlets that receive foreign funding, mainly from the West. The law led to widespread protests in the country and a subsequent brutal response from the government.
FILE – A woman reacts as law enforcement officers use a water cannon to disperse the crowd near the parliament building, during a rally to protest against a bill on “foreign agents” in Tbilisi, Georgia, May 1, 2024.
Like their leaders, many of the opposition voters question the legitimacy of Georgian Dream’s lead.
“Nobody around me voted for them. How did they get a million votes?” asked Davit, a man in his 30s. Another said, “The government you elect is the government you deserve,” expressing frustration with fellow Georgians, while a third added, “They’ve sold out the country for a 300 GEL (around $120) salary.”
Georgian Dream’s core supporters include “budget voters,” public sector workers and social assistance recipients, especially in rural areas where employment options are limited. The party relies on these voters, many of whom fear the loss of a job or benefits if the party loses.
“The election that was held was neither fair nor free,” said the Free University’s Ramishvili. “Since the 2018 presidential election, Georgian Dream has built a powerful electoral machine that relies heavily on bribery, intimidation of vulnerable voters, and fear of war. This machine operates by using both administrative and budgetary resources for partisan purposes, as well as outright bribery.”
Over the years, Georgian Dream has forged strong alliances with wide range of political actors and groups, from pro-Russian socially conservative groups to street hooligans, and chiefly with the highly popular, Georgian Orthodox Church.
“Last week, my priest officially asked us from the pulpit to vote for Georgian Dream,” said Rusudan, a middle-aged voter. “He even said anyone voting for the opposition would lose the right to communion.”
This message, repeated in the churches across the country, has bolstered Georgian Dream’s support among religious and traditionalist voters over the years.
The ruling party framed the election as a choice between war and peace, labeling critics at home and abroad as part of a “global war party,” a term borrowed from Kremlin narratives. For a country scarred by wars with Russia in the 1990s and again in 2008, this message resonated strongly.
Meanwhile, the opposition cast the election as a referendum on ending up under Russian influence.
“Amid rising Russian aggression and a hesitant West unable to defend its values, anti-Western and anti-liberal forces are growing stronger in our region. These groups skillfully exploit the West’s failure to protect its principles, citing Russia’s unpunished aggression against neighboring countries as an example,” Ramishvili said.
For now, Georgian Dream celebrates its apparent victory. But many Georgians, particularly younger urbanites, feel increasingly disillusioned. As results are confirmed, Georgia faces deep divisions and an uncertain path forward.