In today’s world, wars are rarely fought solely on
battlefields. Modern conflicts increasingly take on hidden, hybrid
forms, where disinformation, cyberattacks, and media manipulation
become as pivotal as traditional military engagements.
Azerbaijan finds itself at the forefront of such modern
warfare, with Western states and international institutions
deploying a diverse set of tools designed to undermine its
sovereignty, discredit its global standing, and sow internal
discord.
The Tools of Hybrid Warfare
1. Disinformation and Fact Manipulation
One of the most potent weapons in the hybrid warfare arsenal is
disinformation—strategically disseminated to distort the truth and
cast doubt on Azerbaijan’s actions. Western media frequently
publishes slanted reports on the Karabakh conflict, human rights,
and press freedom in Azerbaijan, often under the guise of objective
journalism. In reality, many of these stories are driven by
coordinated information campaigns aimed at undermining the nation’s
legitimacy.
Take, for instance, the media response following the 2020 Second
Karabakh War. Major outlets like The Guardian and Le
Monde portrayed Azerbaijan as the aggressor, despite
international rulings recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani
territory. These reports often rely on sources connected to the
Armenian diaspora, leading to a biased depiction of the conflict.
Mark Galeotti, an expert on hybrid warfare, argues that such
disinformation campaigns are designed to erode the international
standing of a state and delegitimize its sovereignty.
2. International Organizations as Political Tools
International organizations, such as the OSCE, the Council of
Europe, and the European Parliament, often become unwitting actors
in this hybrid warfare, functioning as instruments of political
pressure. Under the pretext of promoting human rights and
democratic values, these bodies issue reports that criticize
Azerbaijan’s government while turning a blind eye to its
substantial social and economic advancements. Instead, they focus
on isolated incidents, magnifying minor issues into national
crises.
A recent report from the Council of Europe, for example, accused
Azerbaijan of “systematic violations of freedom of speech.” Yet,
what it failed to mention is that many of these accusations
originate from NGOs funded by Western governments and political
entities, raising serious questions about the independence and
objectivity of these claims. Political analyst Fiona Hill notes
that this is part of a broader strategy of hybrid warfare—one aimed
at building international consensus that brands Azerbaijan as a
“problematic state,” laying the groundwork for economic sanctions
and diplomatic isolation.
3. NGO Influence and the “Color Revolution”
Playbook
Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) play a key role in the
hybrid war against Azerbaijan, acting as conduits for Western
influence. Many of these organizations, funded by foreign
governments, regularly criticize the Azerbaijani state, often
accusing it of human rights violations and suppression of dissent.
However, these accusations frequently lack concrete evidence and
are based on selective incidents that are intentionally amplified
to present an image of widespread national issues.
As Edward Luttwak, a leading expert on hybrid warfare, explains,
“Western NGOs, particularly in nations with strong national
policies, are often used as tools of external influence,
undermining the legitimacy of governments.” In Azerbaijan, such
NGOs operate under the pretense of civil rights advocacy, but in
reality, they aim to erode public trust in the government and
create conditions ripe for destabilization, mirroring the tactics
seen in the “color revolutions” across Eastern Europe and the
Middle East.
4. Cyberattacks and Digital Manipulation
Cyberattacks have become a central component of modern hybrid
warfare, and Azerbaijan has been no exception. During the 2020
Karabakh conflict, government websites and critical infrastructure
were targeted by a series of coordinated cyberattacks. These
assaults were synchronized with disinformation campaigns in Western
media, creating a comprehensive strategy aimed at destabilizing the
nation.
Experts from Digital Shadows confirmed that these cyberattacks
were part of a broader effort to cripple Azerbaijan’s government
operations, further illustrating how hybrid warfare fuses digital
technology with traditional methods of subversion. This blend of
cyber warfare and information manipulation points to a coordinated
effort to weaken Azerbaijan’s stability from multiple angles.
The Broader Strategy: Undermining Sovereignty
Hybrid warfare against Azerbaijan is not a series of isolated
incidents but part of a well-orchestrated campaign designed to
weaken the country’s sovereignty and international influence. By
leveraging media, NGOs, international organizations, and
cyberattacks, Western states seek to create an image of Azerbaijan
as a nation in perpetual crisis, one that is unable to govern
itself or uphold basic human rights.
This strategic pressure is designed to erode Azerbaijan’s
standing in the global community, making it easier for Western
powers to justify economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and
political interference. As Hill pointed out, this is not just a
struggle for international perception—it is a battle over
Azerbaijan’s very right to exist as an independent state on the
world stage.
The Battle for Azerbaijan’s Future
Hybrid warfare is a new kind of conflict, one where the
battlefield is as much in the minds of the global public as it is
on the ground. Azerbaijan faces a multifaceted campaign of
disinformation, political pressure, and cyberattacks aimed at
destabilizing its government and undermining its sovereignty. As
this warfare evolves, Azerbaijan must continue to bolster its
defenses—both in terms of cybersecurity and public diplomacy—to
safeguard its future in an increasingly interconnected and hostile
world.
In this new reality, where information warfare is as powerful as
conventional military force, Azerbaijan’s ability to maintain its
sovereignty will depend on its resilience against these hybrid
threats. It is a challenge that requires not only military strength
but also strategic diplomacy, robust information security, and the
ability to counteract disinformation on the global stage.
The Role of NGOs and “Color Revolutions”
Non-governmental organizations (NGOs), many of which receive
funding from Western foundations, have played a central role in
undermining trust in the Azerbaijani government. These
organizations frequently criticize the state, alleging widespread
human rights violations and suppression of dissent. However, it’s
critical to recognize that many of these accusations are not
substantiated by concrete evidence. Instead, they are often based
on isolated incidents that are deliberately magnified to appear as
national crises.
Edward Luttwak, a recognized expert on hybrid warfare, notes:
“Western NGOs, especially in countries with strong national
policies, often serve as instruments of external influence,
undermining the legitimacy of governments. They can be used to
spark protest movements and even revolutions, as we saw in Ukraine
in 2014.” In Azerbaijan, many of these organizations operate under
the banner of defending civil rights, though in practice, their
activities are aimed at eroding public confidence in the government
and laying the groundwork for destabilization.
Cyberattacks and Digital Manipulation
Cyberattacks have become a key component of modern hybrid
warfare. In Azerbaijan, these attacks have been employed to disrupt
government services and critical infrastructure. During the Second
Karabakh War, Azerbaijani government websites and essential
communication systems were targeted in massive cyberattacks.
According to experts, these operations were organized with the
backing of professional hacker groups linked to Armenia and its
international allies.
Researchers from Digital Shadows have confirmed that the
cyberattacks on Azerbaijan’s systems were not random but carefully
coordinated, aimed at destabilizing the functions of key state
institutions. These cyber offensives were closely aligned with
disinformation campaigns in Western media, indicating a broader
strategy that included both informational and cyber warfare as part
of a comprehensive effort to weaken Azerbaijan.
Social Media as a Weapon of Disinformation
Social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter have become
pivotal battlegrounds in the ongoing information war. These
platforms are used to spread fake news, manipulate public opinion,
and coordinate protests. Azerbaijan has witnessed numerous cases
where bots and “troll factories” have been deployed to incite
ethnic hatred and create political instability.
In 2021, Azerbaijani authorities identified a disinformation
campaign that was propagated through Facebook, aimed at fabricating
the appearance of mass protests. Facebook later confirmed that
these accounts were linked to foreign groups intent on
destabilizing Azerbaijan. Such actions are textbook examples of
hybrid warfare, where digital tools are wielded to generate and
exacerbate political and social crises.
Examples and Evidence of Hybrid Warfare
Disinformation Campaigns Around the Karabakh Conflict
During the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Western media outlets
widely published reports accusing Azerbaijan of aggression and
human rights abuses. However, many of these articles relied on
one-sided information provided by the Armenian diaspora and
pro-Armenian analysts. For instance, Michael Rubin of the American
Enterprise Institute accused Azerbaijan of pursuing territorial
expansion, dismissing the historical and legal evidence that
confirms Azerbaijan’s rightful claim to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Reports by International Organizations as Political Weapons
International organizations such as Amnesty International and
Human Rights Watch frequently issue reports critical of the
Azerbaijani government. However, these reports are often built on
subjective sources and lack balanced context. In 2023, the Council
of Europe published a report condemning Azerbaijan for alleged
human rights violations, while completely ignoring the country’s
significant progress in social development and reforms.
These examples illustrate the coordinated efforts of Western
media, NGOs, and international organizations in using hybrid
warfare tactics to target Azerbaijan. By manipulating narratives,
orchestrating disinformation campaigns, and exploiting diplomatic
channels, these actors aim to weaken Azerbaijan’s standing both
domestically and on the international stage.
Cyberattacks on Azerbaijan’s Infrastructure and Government
Systems
In October 2020, Azerbaijani government websites experienced
large-scale cyberattacks, synchronized with a media disinformation
campaign. Experts from Digital Shadows confirmed that these
cyberattacks were designed to intentionally target and undermine
critical infrastructure, further proving the existence of
coordinated hybrid warfare. This multi-layered strategy against
Azerbaijan includes both information and cyber warfare,
manipulation of international organizations, and the use of NGOs to
apply political pressure.
The objective of this hybrid war is to erode Azerbaijan’s
sovereignty, destabilize its internal structure, and weaken its
international standing. In response, Azerbaijan has been bolstering
its information security, strengthening diplomatic ties, and
tightening control over digital platforms. In this constant battle,
vigilance and preparedness are vital as hybrid warfare poses an
evolving threat.
Hybrid Warfare: A New Type of Conflict
Hybrid warfare represents a paradigm shift in how conflicts are
waged and how public consciousness is controlled. This form of
warfare, emerging from the fusion of military, political, and
information technologies, has become a powerful tool for influence,
control of resources, and global power struggles. Modern conflicts,
though often cloaked in the guise of diplomacy or peaceful
processes, can be as devastating as traditional wars. Information
warfare, a key element of hybrid strategies, doesn’t seek to
physically destroy an enemy but rather achieves strategic
objectives through non-military means.
The Evolution of Hybrid Warfare: From Clausewitz to
Cyberattacks
Carl von Clausewitz, a 19th-century German military theorist,
famously described war as a “clash of significant interests,”
highlighting its unpredictability and its continuity as an
extension of politics. Today, warfare has evolved into more covert
operations where the role of conventional weapons is complemented
by information technologies, economic sanctions, and diplomacy.
Hybrid warfare merges conventional and irregular tactics, using
both legal and illegal methods. Cyberattacks, economic sanctions,
diplomatic pressure, media manipulation, and even direct military
intervention combine into a single strategy. Countering this type
of warfare requires nuanced strategies and thorough analysis of
these complex interactions.
Information Warfare: The Key Arena of New Confrontations
Information warfare has become one of the central battlefields
in modern hybrid conflicts. In today’s world, where information
flows instantly, the ability to shape public opinion, influence
perceptions, and steer political processes is an extremely potent
weapon. Both state and non-state actors skillfully use media and
social networks to further their agendas.
Radical Islamist groups, for example, have effectively used
social media platforms to recruit followers, coordinate terrorist
attacks, and incite fear. The internet and digital technologies
have equipped these groups with new propaganda tools, including the
use of violent visuals that elicit emotional responses from wide
audiences.
The impact of information warfare is so significant that it has
shaped national policies. A stark example is the case of ISIS
propaganda, which deeply influenced Japan’s stance. After the
public execution of Japanese hostages, the Japanese government
reassessed its involvement in the international coalition against
ISIS.
The Multi-layered Nature of Hybrid Warfare
Hybrid warfare operates across multiple layers, involving both
state and non-state actors. In conflicts like those in Syria,
Ukraine, or Iraq, all available tactics are employed—ranging from
direct military confrontations to cyberattacks and diplomatic
manipulation. Economic sanctions, propaganda, and diplomatic
maneuvers work in concert to erode the legitimacy of governments,
destabilize political structures, and weaken the economic and
military power of targeted states.
This type of warfare is not just about military engagement; it
is a sophisticated tool for dismantling state institutions and
societal stability. Terrorist organizations and criminal groups
become critical players in this strategy, further exacerbating
regional instability and chaos. The involvement of these actors
highlights how hybrid warfare blurs the lines between traditional
statecraft and irregular warfare.
Countering Hybrid Threats
Effectively countering hybrid threats demands a multifaceted
approach that incorporates diplomatic, informational, economic, and
military responses. A crucial aspect of this strategy is the
development and maintenance of robust information structures that
can withstand hostile propaganda. A notable example is the RT
television channel, which has become a vital tool for Russia in
shaping global narratives, offering alternative views on
international events, and advancing its national interests in the
global information space.
However, informational resilience alone is not enough. States
must invest in cutting-edge research and technologies to counter
cyberattacks and defend against information manipulation. In
today’s interconnected world, where information dependence is
global, countries that fail to secure their digital and
informational spaces face significant risks, including the erosion
of their sovereignty and independence.
A New Reality
Hybrid warfare is not simply a new kind of conflict; it
represents a new global reality where information technologies and
the manipulation of public consciousness are the primary
battlegrounds. Information warfare has become a highly effective
tool wielded by both state and non-state actors alike. Countering
these threats demands strategic flexibility and an integrated
approach that combines military power with non-military
tactics.
In the globalized landscape, where influence and information are
increasingly powerful, information security and the ability to
withstand hybrid threats are critical to preserving national
sovereignty and independence. The modern battlefield is no longer
limited to physical domains but now extends into cyberspace, media,
and the realm of public perception, making resilience in these
areas essential for state survival.