Hospitals shelled, shelters set alight, men and boys separated from their families and taken away in military vehicles; a year into Israel-Hamas war, civilians clinging on in northern Gaza say the situation is worse than it has ever been.
About 400,000 people have remained in Gaza City and surrounding towns since Israel cut the area off from the rest of the territory and issued evacuation orders. Some are unwilling to leave home, afraid they will never be allowed to return; others decided to stay put for the sake of elderly or disabled family members. Civilians have reported that the routes to the relative safety of the south are unsafe, citing sniper fire and detention by Israeli forces.
Now, many believe Israel is trying to finish the job with a new aerial and ground offensive on the area that has killed at least 800 people since it began on 6 October. Tightening the siege and cutting off aid in order to force the remaining population to flee is outlined in a proposal known as “the generals’ plan”, presented to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government last month. Experts say such tactics amount to war crimes.
First responders have paused operations in northern Gaza altogether after crews were injured in airstrikes or detained by the military and their last fire engine was destroyed by tank shelling. The three struggling hospitals in the area say medical equipment is in such short supply that they are having to decide which patients they can help and which they have to let die. A near total blockade on aid deliveries mean that food and water are running dangerously low.
Drone image shows displaced Palestinians in Jabaliya. Photograph: Avichay Adraee/X/Reuters
The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said on X this week: “People suffering under the ongoing Israeli siege in north Gaza are rapidly exhausting all available means for their survival.”
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Israeli government deny carrying out a deliberate “surrender or starve” campaign and say the new offensive is necessary to stop Hamas fighters regrouping. But the generals’ plan, so called because it was put together by a group of retired military leaders, forms a clear blueprint.
Sawsan Zaher, a Haifa-based Palestinian human rights lawyer, said: “It doesn’t matter if Israel says it is doing this or not, if it calls it by a different name or not. What matters in international law is what is happening on the ground, and we can clearly see Israel is trying to erase the Palestinian presence in north Gaza.”
The stated aim of the generals’ plan is to avoid a long war of attrition by putting as much pressure as possible on Hamas, forcing the group’s surrender and the return of 100 hostages seized on 7 October 2023 and still held captive.
Graph showing aid deliveries into Gaza throughout 2024
The plan suggests giving Palestinians in northern Gaza an ultimatum to leave and then declaring the area a closed military zone. Those who remain would be considered combatants and therefore legitimate targets, it says. Water, food, fuel and medical supplies would be completely cut.
After Hamas’s surrender, the Gaza Strip would be permanently divided into two, with Israel in indefinite control in the north until a new civilian Palestinian administration could take over.
Human rights groups have condemned the plan, saying it breaches international prohibitions on the use of food as a weapon and forcible transfers. Whether Israel is intentionally limiting the entry of food to Gaza is already a major plank of the genocide case against it at the international court of justice. Israel says humanitarian agencies are to blame for slow deliveries and Hamas is siphoning off aid.
But with internationally mediated ceasefire and hostage release deal talks deadlocked since July, and Israel fighting a new war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, observers say it appears Israel may be experimenting with a change in strategy in Gaza.
“The bright lights aren’t on Gaza any more, even though the Israeli government is making it very clear what they plan to do. The reason why is simple: because they can. The US, the UN, the EU; who is going to stop them?” said Diana Buttu, a lawyer and former Palestinian peace negotiator.
Displaced Palestinians from Beit Lahia and Jabaliya receive food amid a near total blockade on aid deliveries in the northern Gaza Strip. Photograph: Mahmoud Issa/Quds Net News/Zuma Press/Rex/Shutterstock
Despite an expected revival of ceasefire talks next week, Israel is believed to be considering only a brief 12-day truce. Senior Israeli defence officials recently told the Israeli daily Haaretz that the government’s wider aim was now annexing large parts of the Palestinian territory.
The generals’ plan, or a version of it, would help towards that goal, although Gen Giora Eiland, the main author, told the Guardian that he opposed Israeli resettlement of the Gaza Strip. Siege was a valid tactic under international humanitarian law, he said, and the plan should be viewed as an alternative if a diplomatic solution to end the war could not be reached.
“The reason we had a successful hostage deal in November is because two trucks of aid were going to Gaza a day and Hamas was desperate,” he said. “The idea that there is some clean way to fight and not kill civilians in modern war is naive … Many more Palestinians and many more Israelis will die if the war is not brought to an end as soon as possible.”
Michael Milstein, a Hamas expert and head of the Palestinian studies forum at Tel Aviv University, said he believed the generals’ plan would not further Israel’s two stated military goals in Gaza – the defeat of Hamas and the return of the hostages.
“After a year of fighting and even with [Yahya] Sinwar gone we should realise by now that even if we occupy the whole Strip, Hamas will not stop fighting,” he said, referring to the recent killing of the group’s leader in Rafah.
“There are no good options for Israel in Gaza, but I worry this one will do even more damage to Israel’s image. Many people in Israel still do not understand that the rest of the world does not see what is happening in north Gaza as a just war. That in itself is a big strategic problem.”