Israel’s much-anticipated attack on Iran is taking longer than expected because Israel has had to consider adjusting to warnings from Gulf Arab states not to use their airspace in the attack, sources told Middle East Eye on Friday.
Israel’s war planning is now factoring in its jet fighters taking a circuitous route around the Arabian Gulf to attack Iran, an operation that would require extensive mid-air refuelling, one current and two former senior US officials told MEE on the condition of anonymity.
Iran has been vocal about what they say is Gulf states’ reluctance to aid Israel. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Tuesday said Tehran has secured a pledge from neighbouring countries not to allow their “soil or airspace” to be used in any attack, as it girds for Israel’s retaliation to its missile attack.
“All our neighbours have assured us that they won’t allow their soil or airspace to be used against the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Araghchi said on Tuesday.
The Israeli air force showcased its F-35s conducting mid-air refuelling with KC-707 Boeing Tankers last month during a strike on the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah in Yemen.
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Along with the distance travelled, the amount of fuel needed for any bombing mission is determined by the type of aircraft used and the weight and type of munitions it is carrying.
A former senior US defence official told MEE that if Israel were to fly across the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea to strike Iran, it would require at least four to five mid-air refuelling operations.
“The long distance from Israel to Iran creates logistical challenges for air-refuelling,” Bradly Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation For Defense of Democracies, told MEE.
“If the timidity of some Arab capitals is requiring Israel to adjust its war plans, that is a diplomatic success for Iran,” he added.
The Middle East has been on a knife-edge waiting for Israel’s retaliation for an Iranian ballistic missile attack on its territory earlier this month. The sense of anticipation was fuelled further by what the US says was a leak of top-secret American intelligence detailing Israel’s preparation for the attack. The FBI is now investigating the leak.
The documents, which circulated late last week on Telegram, suggest Israel’s preparation for an attack includes the use of two types of air-launched ballistic missiles identified as Golden Horizon and Rocks missiles.
Defence experts who spoke with MEE said the Golden Horizon missiles are part of the so-called Israeli-produced Sparrow family of missiles and the Rocks missiles belong to a similar group. The Sparrow family of air-launched missiles has a range of up to 2,000 kilometres and is believed to have been used by Israel in its April strike on Iran’s S-300 air defence system.
Israel’s flight path options to attack Iran
Israel’s limited strike on Iran, which blindsided the US, was believed by analysts to have been launched outside of Iran’s airspace because of missile wreckage identified inside Iraq.
The April strike underscores that Israel could attack Iran by avoiding the airspace of close US allies and sending its warplanes over the skies of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. But one former senior US defence official told MEE that the alternative route has its own complications for Israel, given the type of wide-scale attack it appears to be planning.
“Israel doesn’t like going over Syria because it exposes them to Russian radar which will give the Iranians early warning,” the source said. “On the other hand, launching an attack via the Arabian Sea would expose Israel.
“The longer you go, the greater the risks. That’s not something Israel wants to do”.
Israeli warplanes have dominated the skies over Syria since Israel began bombing Iranian-linked targets there after the Syrian civil war.
Since 7 October, Israel has enjoyed relative freedom in Lebanon’s airspace. But a direct attack on Iran would be different in magnitude and comes at a time when Russia has moved closer to the Islamic Republic, including by providing intelligence to the Houthis in Yemen, MEE reported for a previous story.
The safest and easiest route for Israel to launch an air-to-surface missile attack on Iran is over the skies of the Arabian Gulf.
On Friday, the US announced it deployed additional F-16 fighter jets to the region, ahead of what current and former US officials tell MEE is ahead of Israel’s imminent attack on Iran.
Iran sent tankers back to key oil facility in sign it believes an Israeli attack was averted
The US did not say where the jets deployed. The closest US air base to Israel is Azraq in Jordan. But the US has a string of bases across the Gulf, closer to Iran.
Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base is home to the US’s 378th Air Expeditionary Wing, which operates F-16 and F-35 jet fighters. The US operates MQ-9 Reaper drones and jet fighters out of the UAE’s al-Dhafra Air Base.
Kuwait’s Ali al-Salem Air Base is home to the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing and Qatar’s al-Udeid Air Base hosts the regional headquarters for the US Central Command.
This is not the first time that Gulf Arab states have tried to distance themselves from the tensions between Israel and Iran.
After Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel in response to the bombing of its consulate in Damascus, Syria, MEE revealed exclusively that Gulf states were resisting US appeals to use their airspace and air bases to defend Israel.
Iran has also been engaged in a game of virtual checkmate, with Israel trying to reduce its potential list of targets by promising to reciprocate for any attacks on its energy or nuclear infrastructure with similar strikes.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi promised a tit-for-tat retaliation to any Israeli strikes.
“We are monitoring closely the movements of American bases in the region and are aware of all their movements and flights,” he said, adding, “If Israel attacks Iran in any form, Iran will respond in the same format”.