German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has against stated that no decision is needed now regarding Ukraine’s NATO invitation beyond existing agreements. He reiterated his belief that transferring Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine is “wrong” and would trigger an “escalation,” implying the outbreak of a major war.
Zelenskyy’s recently announced “victory plan” lists Ukraine’s invitation to NATO as the first point, framing it as essential for lasting peace and a deterrent against further Russian aggression. Germany has been among the NATO members states opposing Ukraine’s bid for an immediate invitation to join the Alliance. Meanwhile, Berlin has also been refusing to send Ukraine its Taurus missiles for months, despite Ukraine’s requests and appeals to other Western allies to allow deep strikes inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles. The most cited restriction for these restriction is a possibility of an “escalation.”
No clear definition of victory in Zelenskyy’s plan, focus should be on military aid
Speaking on ZDF on 24 October, Chancellor Scholz noted that Ukraine’s firm NATO perspective is an indispensable prerequisite for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s “victory plan.” But, he noted, “as little as the military alliance issues a clear invitation, the definition of victory remains unclear.”
He added that former NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg hinted in an interview that “only a shrunken Ukraine will become a NATO member,” meaning after “ceding territory to Russia for secure borders.” However, he said there will be no decision about Ukraine made without Ukraine, which was reiterated on his recent meeting with the US, UK, and French leaders.
Scholz emphasized the need to focus on what is necessary, primarily “supporting Ukraine so that it can defend itself,” which Germany is doing now, being Europe’s largest supporter of Ukraine and the second largest globally, after the US, in terms of the military aid volumes.
He said G7’s $50 billion loan, backed by proceeds from Russia’s frozen assets, sends messages for both Ukraine and Russia, implying the following:
- Ukraine “can rely on us and that we will continue to support it.”
- Putin “can’t simply count on the support waning and then simply marching through and wiping out the country.”
Country at war can’t join NATO
At least seven of 32 NATO members oppose extending an invitation for Ukraine to join the Alliance.
Scholz explained Germany’s opposition to inviting Ukraine, stating that a country at war cannot become a NATO member:
“On NATO, I would like to say that we took a decision in Washington and in Vilnius and described the perspective. But I believe that there is currently no need for any new decisions beyond this decision,” Scholz said, adding that it is important to realize that “a country at war cannot become a NATO member.”
When reminded that Ukraine currently seeks an invitation to NATO rather than membership, the German Chancellor responded:
“Everyone knows that, there is no disagreement about that. In NATO, the invitation is normally linked to membership fairly quickly,” Scholz said during the broadcast.
The Chancellor claimed that this process is not even on the agenda now, and argued that the focus should instead be on discussing security guarantees for Ukraine for the post-war period.
Zelenskyy: Only US endorsement may sway Germany on NATO invitation for Ukraine
At the same time, Scholz highlighted the need for a serious approach given Russia’s “terrible” war in Ukraine, noting that Russia had abandoned the understanding that borders cannot be changed through force.
According to the German Chancellor, this requires cautious action, which on the one hand guarantees support for Ukraine, but on the other hand ensures that this does not become a war between Russia and NATO.
“That is something where I am very clear and will not change my position,“ said Scholz, describing his ambiguous view that in the Ukrainian politics is usually described as “sitting on two chairs at once.”
Peace prospects
When asked about ongoing peace efforts, Scholz emphasized that, in addition to supporting Ukraine, Germany and Ukraine’s other allies must continually discuss how to achieve a peace process “that is not a capitulation by Ukraine, not a dictated peace by Russia, but which nevertheless opens up the prospect of peace as soon as possible.”
The Chancellor said Germany is now in dialog with many governments around the world, “so that everyone can work towards getting Russia to shift its position of simply continuing the war unchanged.”
“There has to be a way out that ultimately makes peace possible — a peace where Ukraine can exist as a nation. After all, this is already one result of Russia’s war of aggression: Ukraine has emerged as a strong nation in Russia’s neighborhood, and that cannot be argued away,” Scholz said.
No Taurus for Ukraine
Regarding his months-long rejection of Ukraine’s requests to supply Ukraine with German-made Taurus cruise missiles, Scholz maintained his opposition to giving Ukraine such capabilities, saying:
“I want to say again that my position on Taurus is clear. I think it’s wrong,” the Chancellor stated.
When asked what the real reason for his hesitation, Scholz reaffirmed his escalation fears:
“Everything has to be weighed up, and that is something that everyone in Germany can rely on. I will not act rashly. We are dealing with a terrible war in our neighborhood. That is why I will not supply certain weapons that I think will contribute to an escalation.”
Scholz explained his hesitation to approve the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine by emphasizing his responsibility to prevent the outbreak of a major war, stressing that he takes this duty seriously and will not allow himself to be pressured.
No Taurus for Ukraine while Scholz reigns, claims foreign policy expert
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