The Republic of Georgia, which was part of the Soviet Union until independence in 1991, is preparing for a crucial election on October 26 in a vote widely seen as a choice between a future aligned with the West or Russia.
The United States and the European Union accuse the ruling Georgian Dream party of backsliding on democracy and of tacking closer to Moscow, which party officials deny.
Polls suggest Georgian Dream may struggle to win a parliamentary majority and retain power, although it’s not clear if opposition parties would be able to form a coalition to oust the government.
Fear of conflict
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looming over the election campaign, Georgian Dream has sought to shore up its support by capitalizing on voters’ fears of renewed conflict with Moscow. Russian forces still occupy 20% of Georgian territory following their 2008 invasion of the country.
Georgian Dream’s election posters seek to present a stark choice for voters. On one side, there are photographs of the destruction from Russia’s war on Ukraine; on the other, idyllic images of a prosperous Georgia. The captions read: “No to war! Choose peace.”
Georgian Dream accuses its rivals of being part of what it calls the “global war party.”
“Since the war began, Georgian Dream’s rhetoric has been based on the idea that they are the party of peace, while the opposition is the party of war,” said Ghia Nodia, a political analyst at Ilia State University in Tbilisi.
“They claim the opposition would drag the country into war with Russia and that the opposition is, in this sense, an agent of the West, part of the ‘global war party.'”
“The fear of war exists in society, largely because of the experience of 2008. And in some ways, this message has been successful. But from my observations, this message has now worn out,” Nodia told VOA.
‘Global war party’
Opposition parties have expressed disgust at the Georgian Dream campaign.
Several of the billboards and TV advertisements feature photographs of alleged Russian atrocities, such as the strike on the Mariupol theater in March 2022, which is thought to have killed several hundred civilians. Kyiv has described the images as “unacceptable.”
Georgian Dream stands by its campaign.
FILE – Billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, leader of the Georgian Dream party greets demonstrators during a rally in support of “Russian law” in Tbilisi, Georgia, on April 29, 2024,
“What we have said is that some individuals — whether politicians, businesspeople, or other actors — might support ongoing wars, including entangling Georgia in war. No leader of Georgian Dream has ever labeled the EU, the U.S., or any Western nation as part of the global war party,” said Nikoloz Samkharadze, a member of Georgian Dream and chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee in parliament.
West vs. Russia
To many Georgians — including the country’s president, Salome Zourabichvili, a critic of the government — the election presents a choice on Georgia’s future path: Align with the West, or with Moscow.
“It’s a choice about what kind of country we want to live in. The West represents democracy, while Russia stands for authoritarianism,” said analyst Nodia.
Georgian Dream rejects accusations that it is seeking closer relations with Moscow.
“We sponsored multiple United Nations resolutions condemning Russia’s aggression [on Ukraine]. We supported Russia’s expulsion from the Council of Europe due to the war. We co-sponsored similar resolutions in the OSCE, and we filed a lawsuit at the International Criminal Court on behalf of Ukraine against Russia for war crimes.
“All of this demonstrates Georgia’s clear, principled diplomatic and legal stance on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” said Samkharadze.
EU future
Georgia’s aspiration to join the EU is enshrined in the country’s constitution. Polls suggest more than 80% of Georgians want to join the bloc.
The EU granted Georgia candidate status in December last year as part of an effort by Brussels to offer political support to former Soviet states in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But relations have soured fast.
Brussels effectively froze membership talks after Georgia reintroduced a so-called foreign agent law in April, which the West says mimics Russian legislation used to clamp down on political opposition, civil society and free media.
A violent crackdown on subsequent anti-government protests in Tbilisi prompted the U.S. and EU to impose sanctions on Georgian officials.
EU lawmakers accuse the government of pivoting toward Russia and have called for the European Commission to impose sanctions on Georgian Dream’s billionaire founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, along with other party officials.
Speaking on Monday, the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Georgia’s EU accession process was “de facto halted.”
“The ruling party’s recent actions, statements and electoral promises take the country away from the European path and signals a shift towards authoritarianism,” Borrell told reporters following an EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg.
Georgian Dream insists EU membership is still on track.
“It’s crucial for us to prepare Georgia to become a member of the EU by 2030,” Samkharadze told VOA. “I think these issues are temporary, and we can find common ground with both the EU and the U.S. on these matters, provided there’s mutual will.”
Coalition building
For the first time, lawmakers will be elected by full proportional representation. Most opposition parties have united under four broad coalition blocs to ensure they exceed the 5% threshold required to avoid disqualification.
Polls suggest no single party or bloc will gain a majority amid public distrust of the entire political class.
Can the opposition coalesce to oust Georgian Dream?
Giga Bokeria, a former secretary of the National Security Council and founder of the new Federalist Party, which is not taking part in the election, believes there is public and political will to force a change of government.
“A significant part of society has legitimate reasons to mistrust the political class, particularly certain representatives. This is a serious problem. But … I believe there are still more than enough arguments to build a consensus around the need to change the government, despite this mistrust,” Bokeria said.
Election aftermath
According to Ilia State University’s Nodia, Georgian Dream stands little chance of winning “in a free and fair election,” but there are concerns the party may not willingly relinquish power.
“There is still a fear within society that even if Georgian Dream loses, they won’t recognize the results and will declare themselves the winners. I think this fear is exaggerated, but we can’t say anything for sure,” Nodia said.
Georgian Dream insists it will respect democracy. “We will accept the people’s decision, whatever it may be,” said Samkharadze. “At the same time, I want to emphasize that we are confident the vast majority of Georgians will support Georgian Dream.”