A prominent Emirati analyst has suggested Israel might kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei following the assassination of key Iranian allies.
Writing in Israeli news outlet the Jerusalem Post, Salem Alketbi said the possibility of Israel killing Khamenei was “highly plausible” considering the success it has had in penetrating Iran’s security apparatus.
“Recent strikes and intelligence breaches targeting Iranian security institutions and their affiliated proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, make the scenario of assassinating Khamenei highly plausible,” he wrote.
He noted that the killings of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, among others, had yet to provoke a serious response from Iran.
“It turns out Israel’s successive and escalating assassinations of prominent Iranian or pro-Iranian leaders have not, as of now, resulted in a cost that would compel the Israeli security establishment to discontinue these bold operations, even if they hit the head of the Iranian regime,” he wrote.
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He added, however, that the prospect of a direct attack on Khamenei could also be “receding” in favour of attacks on Iran’s nuclear and missile programme facilities.
Israel has managed to eliminate a number of its regional opponents in recent months.
On Wednesday, Hezbollah confirmed the death of Hashem Safieddine, a top official who was believed to be first choice to take over as the group’s leader after the killing of Nasrallah last month.
The announcement ends weeks of speculation over Safieddine’s death, after an Israeli air strike in Beirut on 3 October.
Safieddine is the latest leading figure from Hezbollah confirmed killed by Israel, following a string of assassinations and bombings that have taken out most of the group’s senior leadership and killed hundreds of Lebanese civilians.
Following an Iranian attack on Israel in October, Israel has promised to retaliate, though so far no direct action has materialised.
Last month, Israel’s Channel 14 released a list of the country’s top targets for assassination throughout the region.
Though Khamenei was omitted, it included leaders of Yemen’s Houthis, Sinwar and, most controversially, Iraq‘s top Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
Sistani’s inclusion in the list provoked fury in Iraq, where he is seen as largely staying out of partisan politics, and someone who has mostly kept his involvement in the current regional fighting to advocating humanitarian assistance.
Writing in the Jerusalem Post, Alketbi said that while Sistani had referred to Nasrallah as a “martyr” and was broadly supportive of Iran’s stance on the conflict, he said he did not “carry the same weight” with armed actors as Khamenei.
“With Sistani capable of mobilizing most, though not all of the Iraqi Shi’ite front, it stands to reason that Israel might be considering adding Khamenei himself to the assassination list,” he wrote.
“The political and security costs would involve only slight differences in both cases. Both are major Shi’ite leaders, and the expected Shi’ite anger in the event of the assassination of either would be comparable,” he added.
“It might even be greater in Sistani’s case, given the factor of power struggle within the circle close to the Iranian supreme leader,” Alketbi wrote.