What are the real census results in Montenegro, and how many Serbs are there really? Will there be a deepening of divisions?
According to the results of the census conducted by the Statistics Administration of Montenegro (MONSTAT) in December last year, the majority of citizens in Montenegro are Montenegrins with 41.12 percent (256,436 citizens), Serbs are 32.93 percent. percent (205,370), while Bosniaks are 9.45 percent (58,956).
The majority of citizens in this country say they speak Serbian – 43.18 percent (269,307), while Montenegrin is spoken by 34.52 percent (215,299).
This is the first census after the replacement of Milo Djukanovic’s Democratic Socialist Party government and the first since the pro-Serb parties of the former Democratic Front came to power.
The census results were awaited for ten months, but those for language, religion and nationality did not change drastically compared to the 2011 census.
Between the two censuses, the number of Montenegrins decreased by 22,429, while the number of Serbs increased by 27,260. Serbian is spoken by 0.3 percent more citizens than 12 years ago, while the number of citizens whose mother tongue is Montenegrin has decreased by 2.5 percent.
Stable identities
“The census results show the stability of the created identities, but they also show that the divisions in Montenegrin society remain the same,” analyst Sergej Sekulovic told DW.
Prime Minister and leader of the ‘Europe Now Movement’ Milojko Spajic declared on the X network that “the only real winner of the list is European, civil Montenegro, which is big enough for everyone”.
Speaker of the Assembly Andrija Mandiç, Spajic’s coalition partner, said that “as a member of the Serbian people” he is satisfied because the number of Serbs in Montenegro has increased compared to the last census.
The opposition Democratic Party of Socialists is also satisfied, as they say, despite “attempts to make ethnic changes with the help of the authorities in Serbia, the civil character of the state has been preserved”.
The issue of the Serbian language is reopened
Despite the fact that, after the restoration of independence in 2006, the Montenegrin language was declared the official language in Montenegro – the fact that Serbian is spoken by the majority of citizens in this country is sufficient evidence for the Serbian parties that make up the government to start the procedures for changing the Constitution, so that Serbian is also an official language in Montenegro.
“One in three inhabitants of Montenegro is a Serb and the Serbian language is the language of the majority. I expect you to say that the language of the majority is the Serbian language and that it should be the official language”, says the deputy of the Serbian New Democracy, Dejan Gjurovic.
Officials of the former Democratic Front initially warned of the initiative for the officialization of the Serbian language, if in the census it turns out that it was the mother tongue of more than 50 percent of the citizens. They have been waiting for these results, but they did not turn out according to their expectations.
On the other hand, the deputy of the DPS, Nikola Milovic, tells DW that he has a different opinion: “If the initiative (to change the Constitution) enters the agenda, of course we will be against it. I would like it to start now, to clarify some things to the end, to see what the parties in power are doing. “Montenegro is a citizen state and with this registration, this story has ended”, adds Milovic.
The initiative to change the Constitution in the linguistic part is legitimate, but according to analyst Sekulovic, the basic question is what is its purpose – strengthening the citizen state or strengthening the politics of ethnic identity?
“The presented results can bring division, but also integration. All the former dilemmas remain, only now the debate is intensifying, or better said, the process is being accelerated where everyone must come out clearly and openly and explain their policy towards the European Union. They should say whether they support Montenegro as a citizen state, or whether they want a ‘little Bosnia,’” says Sekulovic.
In this sense, we have heard “nothing new”, the divisions remain as they have been until now, while the question arises as to what the political elites will do with it and how society will react.
The Russians came and stayed
The biggest news brought by this census is regarding the national census of Russians. Russians are now part of Montenegro at over two percent, which is the fifth largest ethnic group in Montenegro, after Montenegrins, Serbs, Bosniaks and Albanians.
These are mainly people who came to live in Montenegro earlier, mainly on the coast, but there are also those who came after the beginning of the Russian occupation of Ukraine.
Although the data showed a significant number of Ukrainian refugees in Montenegro last year, the number of Ukrainians in the census was only 0.5 percent./ DW