Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine represents a failure of Nato’s deterrent posture, according to the findings of a recent inquiry examining the lessons learnt so far from the war.
The House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee has submitted the report – Ukraine: A Wake-Up Call – to the Government and team working on the Strategic Defence Review.
In a panel discussion at the defence and security think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), in London, committee chair Lord de Mauley said: “For me, it’s all about deterrence.”
“No-one wants a war but if you clearly aren’t in a position to defend yourself then the bullies will have a go.”
The panel spoke of the serious weaknesses in the UK’s military capabilities.
And Lord de Mauley highlighted a lack of mass and resilience needed for prolonged, high-intensity warfare, with no ‘second echelon’ – seen as particularly dangerous in a conflict with Russia.
Strengthening recruitment, improving retention, and enhancing the role of the reserves are essential for rebuilding military capability.
The report refers to a “collective failure by the West”, finding that Putin’s assessment was that Nato’s response would not represent a credible threat to his ambition.
The panel believes the events call for a reassessment of Nato’s deterrence policies and the underlying assumptions that failed to prevent the conflict.
Former Chief of the Defence Staff, General Lord Houghton, said: “I do not think that Russian paratroopers are about to descend into Kent, Russia will be much weakened by current activities.
“I do think we have more proximate security concerns from grey zone warfare.”
The report found that Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure underscore the UK’s vulnerability to similar hybrid warfare tactics.
It highlights the dismantling of the UK’s civil defence infrastructure after the Cold War which has left the nation exposed.
The panel called for a whole-of-government effort to protect it and build resilience.
There was also discussion around the need to engage society in national defence.
Committee member Baroness Fraser says current public awareness of threats facing the UK is “alarmingly low.”
She said the war in Ukraine has illustrated that engaging the “whole of society in defence is crucial for building a resilient and prepared nation”.